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 Fund Investment Corner, Please share anything about Fund.

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dreamer101
post Mar 30 2007, 01:43 AM

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QUOTE(anuarnor @ Mar 30 2007, 12:55 AM)
Guys, need some opinion.  notworthy.gif

I'm rearranging my investment. Currently my savings roughly consist of;

40 pc - equity fund
30 pc - asb
30 pc- cash

I'm thinking of;

40 pc - equity,40 pc - dividend/balance fund, 20 pc - asb. I'm maintaining asb because it much easier to take cash out in case if I need them.

Is this a good combination?  hmm.gif
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It is very simple. You SHOULD NOT put any money in any fund until you have reached the 200K limit in ASB and you cannot put in any more money in ASB.

There are very few and close to zero equity or dividend/balance fund that can beat ASB return consistently.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Mar 30 2007, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(AaronCjS @ Mar 30 2007, 10:56 AM)
may i know how how much is the ASB return? my return from Public Dividend select fund is around 25%-30% within 1 and half year.....
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Do this for 10 to 20 years, then it is a big deal.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Mar 30 2007, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(edifgrto @ Mar 30 2007, 08:22 PM)
Hi dreamer101 uncle, can US or any oversea funds last for 10 to 20 years one?! I mean,... like their performance in 20 years time period?

As I know, Some Malaysia funds can have over 10 years if me not mistaken. But the encouraging time for people to keep the fund is only for 1 to 5 years. As for me, i would only do that for 1 to 3 years.  biggrin.gif
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1) Historically, only one fund that deliver that kind of performance (20+%) for 20 years. That was the Fidelity Magellan fund when Peter Lynch was the fund manager. By the way, after Peter Lynch retired, this fund no longer has good performance.

2) IMHO, I do not believe any fund in Malaysia is worth investing in. The only exception is ASB for the Bumi.

3) People who makes this kind of statement (my fund makes 20% to 30% in 1 1/2 years) are usually a NOOB. That is the WRONG way to evaluate a fund. The proper to evaluate the fund si to use how they perform as per benchmark:

For example,

If stock market went up 30%, the fund is doing 20% -> This is bad

If the stock market went down 10%, the fund is doing -5% -> This is great.

The fund has to do better than the market. Or else, we should just invest on an index fund.

4) VWELX -> Vanguard Wellington fund started in 1929. It is still one of the best balanced fund even now.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 30 2007, 09:03 PM
dreamer101
post Mar 31 2007, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(edifgrto @ Mar 31 2007, 11:20 AM)

3) Well, I have to disagree here. Dun you think it's too fast jumping into conclusion?! Given that one just said,

-my fund makes 20% to 30% in 1 1/2 years(a reality and real life experience. Full stop here)
Just an real life experience sharing.

-my fund would make 20% to 30% in 1 1/2 years(not real yet)
Perhaps a n00b, perhaps not...

Besides, take me as example. I never admitting myself not a n00b, irregardless if anyone calling me?! or I myself denying that I'm always a n00b. Being n00b always need to learn something new!  rclxm9.gif

Edited: for the example you gave. It's really making sense. Thank you very much for the sharing. I would keep that in mind. Pin it up... to memorise them...

If stock market went up 30%, the fund is doing 20%  -> This is bad
If the stock market went down 10%, the fund is doing -5% -> This is great.
The fund has to do better than the market.  Or else, we should just invest on an index fund.

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edifgrto,

We need to educate and become better. Only by becoming better, we can hope for better unit trust and fund manager in Malaysia.

In USA, whenever someone mentions about any fund performance, it is always compare to a benchmark.

For example, in that period, S&P went up 10%, this fund deliver 15% performance.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Apr 10 2007, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(Gazard7 @ Mar 31 2007, 01:19 PM)
Just want to ask, how to invest in Vanguard Wellington fund for us malaysian here?
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I do not think that is possible. What might be possible is if you open a etrade stock brokerage A/C and buy / sell Exchange Linked Fund (ELF) version of mutual fund.

Dreamer


dreamer101
post Apr 18 2007, 12:39 AM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 17 2007, 11:55 PM)
That's the thing I want to mention here. Unit trust is different from share in terms of the price movement. Since unit trust is widely diversified, the price won't go up and down as much as share.
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There is NO REAL diversification for domestic equity fund. With 50% of the KLSE owned by GLC or GLIC, one single share holder controls the whole market and is the major share holder for most public listed companies.

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dreamer101
post Apr 18 2007, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 18 2007, 09:59 AM)
I understand this, but we can't do anything for this. Most of the listed companies in Msia is hold by the government. We're not able to invest oversea market, so still have to struggle in domestic market. The diversification here is in terms of Msia market.
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Leekk8,

We can start by NOT lying to ourself that we have diversification in domestic UT. Since we have NO diversification in domestic UT, UT is not safer than individual blue chip stock. The rule in oversea about mutual fund / UT is safer than individual stock does NOT WORK in Malaysia.

Why you lie to yourself long enough, you start to believe the lie as opposed to the cold hard truth. This lie will cost you a lot of money!!!

<<We're not able to invest oversea market>>

That is not true. You can invest in global UT or open a US stock brokerage A/C and buy ELF.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 18 2007, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 18 2007, 08:49 PM)
UT is not safer than individual blue chip stock??? This is a good point that I should think about.

Dreamer, how about some UT that invest in foreign market? I mean global funds or far east funds, so forth. These funds have diversification?

Anybody also can open US stock account? Anyway, is US market really good compared to others?
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Leekk8,

1) We were discussing diversification. Given that Global UT do not invest in Malaysia Stock Market, it has DIVERSIFICATION. It can do well even if Malaysia stock market is not doing well.

<<Anybody also can open US stock account? Anyway, is US market really good compared to others?>>

2) I am using asset allocation model of investing. That means I diversify my investment across countries, asset class and so on. I am NOT DEPENDENT on any single stock market or asset class to do well for my investment to grow. This is what we called INVESTMENT. I can go to sleep for 10 years and my investment will still do well.

3) If you have a US stock account, you can buy ELF which is the stock version of UT/Mutual fund. And, via ELF, you can invest on mutual fund of US stocks, single country stock market, REIT and so on... Everything is possible now.

4) The funny thing is it is cheaper and easier to invest in Malaysia market via EWM stock symbol (mutual fund of 30 largest stock in Malaysia)

http://www.ishares.com/fund_info/detail.jh...ID50?symbol=EWM

The annual expense is only 0.54%

5) You need at least a few thousand USD before we can talk about US stock A/C.


Dreamer

dreamer101
post Apr 19 2007, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(yennll @ Apr 19 2007, 07:50 PM)
I myself with all my "saving" in unit trust. Starting this practice since grad and after I get to know that the return from Unit trust is much higher than FD and safer if compare to stock market.

Yes, don't put all eggs in one basket, diversify... and Depend on how much risk that you can take.

But then we have so many fund management companies & if they are launching "almost similiar" fund.. how can we decide? Based on the proven track record they have? Or should we stick to the current funds that we invest regularly, instead of buying new fund?
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<<I get to know that the return from Unit trust is much higher than FD and safer if compare to stock market.>>

UT is investing in the stock market!! Unless, you are talking about global UT, how can it be safer than stock market?

<<diversify.>>

Let me do it one more time to get through the thick head of people:

THERE IS NO DIVERSIFICATION in KLSE. Government directly or indirectly owned 50% of KLSE. Learn from history about reverse take over of Renong by UEM before you buy any stock in Malaysia.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 20 2007, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 20 2007, 04:12 AM)
Diversification not necessary unable to achieve with local market. Diversify can be in term of Bonds vs Equity ratio, or different categories of industries. Rules of diversify = not put everything in the same basket, m i right?
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Bond versus Equity -> Maybe. But, most of the bonds are issued by Government and GLC too. Single player dominated the bond too.

<<different categories of industries. Rules of diversify = not put everything in the same basket, m i right?>>

It does not work in Malaysia

A) KLSE is not a good representation of Malaysia economy since NOT all indutries are listed or listed in equal weight.

B) With a single large share holder (Government) in all industries, where is the diversification??

C) All you eggs is hold in one basket!!!

So, you are maybe right about bonds versus stocks. But, you are wrong in diversification over industries.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 20 2007, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 20 2007, 01:19 PM)
I see, thanks for the information. I'm still new in UT and investing either. What i'm trying to say in economic downturn, the diversification is work in UT assume government didn't make significant impact on KLSE. M i right?

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Dreamers: Personally, i think funds in SG is doing quite well. 1st. They're international trade market, the funds participate in international market and they have more experience in investing overseas compare to Malaysia's UT. M i right?
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1) You did not study history. Google "UEM Renong Reverse Takeover". Normally, in a recession, Government do a lot stuff to affect KLSE.

2) I invest via USA mutual funds.

QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 20 2007, 06:58 PM)
No. I understand that the fund itself is regulating by SC and trustee. What i'm trying to tell is the fund have a better/knowledgable person who managed it. Or in order word there's a professional team managing your money. So, in a normal circumstances, when the market is not doing well, the fund will allocate fund to shares with higher dividend payout (i think they'll have some sort of defensive strategy in equity fund to prevent too much losing out). Else what's the point of paying Mgmt fees to the fund who cannot manage for you? Like what dreamer said, if the fund is performing worst than KLCI, then why pay for it? I myself can be a fund manager to choose stock in KLCI. What a fund doing is actually minimizing the risk, and maximizing potential return to the unit trust holder.

Another point is that something you guyz seems never notice, the return you see 200%-300% is just something you can see for now. If you liquidate your investment, you get 300%. However, if the timing is incorrect, or you sold after the market crashes, there goes your 300% or sometimes even worst. This is call volatile. UT have better/smaller volatility compare to Share Market.

That's why choosing a good fund manager is very important in the first place. Everything there's a pros and cons, just make sure you benefit the pros most and minimize the cons as much as you could. Then you're happy with it.
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Now, there are a lot of stock that you can speculate/gamble in KLSE. IMHO, I think only one stock worth buying/investing in KLSE. Some people believe that there are less than 10. So, what is the advantage of a fund manager where there is less than 10 stocks worth investing in??

1) You just have to sit and wait for any those 10 stocks to be cheap enough and buy.

2) Fund manager are forced by the UT investor to sell if there is panic and people redeem. They do not have a choice.

3) Fund manager are forced to buy where there is a bull market since people are buying UT.

How do you make good money when you buy high and sell low??

When you buy you own stock, you can buy low and sell high or even better NEVER SELL.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 21 2007, 01:42 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 20 2007, 09:57 PM)

Yup this is very true. However, the market is random. No ones know what price is low. You might say $1.00 of XYZ Bhd is worth to buy. But not for other investor. Different perception i think.

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You ARE NOT buying the market. You are buying individual stock. If you know the fundamental of a stock and the company, you know when it is a bargain or not. In fact, you couldn't care less about the market.

The fundamental is NOT based on perception. This is for investment not speculation.

The bottom is very simple,

You lose 6% to 7% immediately on buying UT plus 1% to 1.5% every year.

You could have buy blue chip stock with lot of 100 with lower cost. Why you think the UT can do significantly better?

I bought my blue chip stock at RM6.60. I know it will at least give me Rm0.40 per year of dividend. Now, it is giving me dividend of Rm0.60 per year. Why do I need to sell?? And, I know this stock survive the 97/98 recession. How much intelligence is required to follow my method?? It is much much less than picking UT. And, it is much more profitable.

Now, I am just waiting for it to drop below RM7 to buy more.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 21 2007, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 21 2007, 11:18 AM)
Other than those points i've posted, I do think UT manager they have the economic of scale, don't they? They deal directly with those securities company and they can buy large quantities of blue chip stock in a significant volume, therefore, they might get better return than ordinary investor?

Any comments?
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ASSUME -> Make an ASS of U and ME

1) They are not passing the saving to you.

2) When you buy stock at large quantity, you drive the price up. So, you buy stock at high price

3) When you sell stock at large quantity, you drive the price down. So, you sell at low price.

Buy high and sell low. Sure formula to make less profit.

Dreamer

dreamer101
post Apr 21 2007, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 21 2007, 12:01 PM)
Is that means actually funds got no benefits from the economic of scale they held?
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Bingo. You need to start using your common sense. In fact, there is dis-economy of scale. It is harder to make money in stock market with a large pool of money.

The only exception is when people "goreng" the stock. But, that is NOT investment and I am not quite sure that they are legal.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Apr 21 2007, 12:14 PM
dreamer101
post Apr 26 2007, 03:18 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 25 2007, 11:47 PM)
Dreamer, I just studied about the Renong, UEM Case. But then I couldn't related much that to the diversify of unit trust. What I could think off is just this is policital risk which exist at any country, and Malaysia share market lack of liquidity. Would you mind to explain a little bit more?
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UEM is GLC. 50% of KLSE is owned by GLC and GLIC. So, in Malaysia, political risk affect 50% of KLSE.

This is different from most countries in the world. In most countries in the world, the government do not own 50% of the stock market.

If a single share holder (government) own 50% of the stock market, this share holder will and can affect the stock market directly. So, how can you say that you have diversify your investment when most and if not all your investment share one large share holder? And, government i is a non-profit organization. This share holder do not make decision in term of profit and loss.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 27 2007, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 27 2007, 06:22 PM)
Since there is no real diversification in local market, it's better for us to buy global funds...

How about bond funds?
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1) Most bonds are issued by government, GLC, and GLIC. Same problem.

2) Do you trust the rating given by RAM?

3) Our discussion is on diversification. Given that we have NO DIVERSIFICATION on domestic UT, the argument of using UT for diversification is WRONG. So, you better off buy the blue chip stock yourself.

4) I do not buy any GLCs.

5) As for Global UT, that will provide you diversification.

6) But, you could have buy Exchange Linked Fund (ELF) via US stock brokerage A/C like E-trade. So, you could get access to US mutual funds via ELF. That is a far cheaper way to invest globally or locally. You need a few K in USD for this to work. I am US Resident so my tax situation is simpler. You may want to ask others Malaysian that tried this.

QUOTE(edifgrto @ Apr 27 2007, 07:40 PM)
Emmm... Who said no real diversification in local market?! Ain't that recent news said out of 50% of the local fund can be invested in oversea?! unsure.gif
Last time was only 30%, but now already 50%...  thumbup.gif

hmm.gif global funds not really good in general. My personal preference, perhaps... ?!
Bond Funds can be good but low return, lower risk...
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edifgrto,

7) We are talking about LOCAL STOCK MARKET and domestic UT that ONLY INVEST on local stock market provide NO DIVERSIFICATION.

8) I have NO IDEA whether global UT is good. But, it will provide real diversification. So, that is a good reason to buy them.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 28 2007, 02:18 AM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 27 2007, 11:24 PM)
For me, I prefer combination of bond funds and equity funds in my portfolio. Bond funds advantage is its low service charge, and normally a bit higher return than FD. It's better than we put our money into FD.

Global funds not performing well? I think this depends...currently msia stock market is going up and up, so maybe the equity funds are performing well currently. Anyway, KLCI won't stay at 1300 forever, and no one knows how long it can stay at this level.

As I understand there're 2 types of global funds. As said by cherroy, normally global funds feed into some foreign funds. As I know, there are also funds that direct invest into foreign stock market. I think we can know this by reading its prospectus.

Dreamer, since bond is something like fixed return, why we need diversification within bonds?
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What happen if the company cannot pay aka default on the loan? The funny thing in Malaysia is in this case, the largest debtor and creditor is most probably the government. So, will you the minority bond holder get the best deal when a company cannot pay?

This is the same problem as being a minority share holder in company with government as the largest share holder.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 29 2007, 01:23 AM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ Apr 28 2007, 11:17 PM)
Personally thinking that, local fund managers are still inexperience in foreign markets. It's not easy to invest in several foreign markets, as they need a lot of analysts to study and analyze the markets.

So far, I prefer global funds that invest on other foreign funds...until they're experience enough and have sufficient resources. Anyway, invest direct on Asia market like China, Korea...should performs quite well, as these markets are going up like crazy...
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<<Anyway, invest direct on Asia market like China, Korea...should performs quite well, as these markets are going up like crazy...>>

To make money, you need to buy low and sell high. So, how does it make sense to you to buy and invest on expensive stock market??


Watch the P/E, is the economy growing at that rate?? At P/E of 40, is the economy growing at 40%?? If you choose to buy, you are gambling/speculating. If you are a good gambler and know when to get out, you can buy.

Very few people are good gambler.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post Apr 29 2007, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(edifgrto @ Apr 29 2007, 11:57 AM)
6) Local market I also can't understand well. Therefore, not really a good timing for me to go oversea yet. ^^

7) NO DIVERSIFICATION in LOCAL STOCK MARKET. hmm, i dun know in more details of this. Almost all BANKS people telling me funds can have DIVERSIFICATION. However, have or not to me is not important. What me really know is, the FUNDS in LOCAL STOCK MARKET is making a little money for me!  icon_rolleyes.gif Public Mutual, OSK-UOB and Prudential funds perhaps my main interest.  thumbup.gif
cheers.gif
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1) Be careful. I made a lot of money (paper gain) in the Internet bubble until it crashes and took half of my life savings with it. I forgot about diversification.

<<DIVERSIFICATION. However, have or not to me is not important. >>

2) This is the difference between investing and speculating. In investing, you want to make sure that you make money under all circumstances. You do that by REAL diversification so that your investment will grow and survive any kind of crash.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 13 2007, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(leekk8 @ May 13 2007, 10:56 PM)
In theory, yes...as dividend funds are investing into high dividend yield counters. However, if you are able to choose good high dividend yield share, it's better you invest in stock market directly, as the service charge of mutual funds are 5-7%, and diversification in mutual funds might decrease your returns.
Anyway, you can lower the risk by investing into mutual funds instead of stock.
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QUOTE(David83 @ May 13 2007, 10:59 PM)
Thank you, leekk8 but from you posted; there's no win-win solution. biggrin.gif
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David83,

He had given you a winning solution but you have choose to ignore it.

<<if you are able to choose good high dividend yield share, it's better you invest in stock market directly, >>

There are less than 5 counters worth investing in KLSE. So, why it is so hard?? You just need to find out what those 5 are.

Dreamer

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