It's hard to trade... oil wants to see $50 before tanking below $45.

Dollar spiking again..hence, crude retreating a bit.

I usually look at the Dollar as the leading indicator for Crude and Crude as leading indicator for Energy stocks.
After Yellen speech, immediately, dollar spikes, crude tanks, followed by energy and the general market.
Then, the next day, after Asian market finished, crude already traded down, market gapped down. Such gaps usually followed by gap filled (to cover) by the institutional who has short positions, the bargain buyers also came in to position themselves.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 20 2016, 11:09 PM

Today is a very weird day. Dollar up, Oil down (which is normal) but Energy stocks up and general market is up too.


Maybe is 'bcoz Friday option expiration, strange price movement...

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 21 2016, 05:23 AM

Over supply continues....

I also saw this article..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-20/s...coast-singapore

The map on the numbers of oil tankers floating standby in Singapore is really amazing.

I think the bulls are teasing us.. they kept going and going and pushing.. we're almost at the edge of the cliff here.
Sooner or later, the whole flock may just jump down.

This time, the general market lifting up all stocks.. including commodity like crude.
Must be the better than expected housing numbers..(demand better than supply) in certain markets.

I am still skeptical about this rally.

$49.35... that's close enough to $50 already. Ok, bulls, you won! Now, turn around and go back down!

UWTI... very strong here. Any pullback will certainly worth another dive to buy again.

I think bulls should turn this ship around and become bears first.. maybe bring it down to $40 again one more time before going back higher.. it makes no sense to plunge ahead now even with such high inventory level.

Be-careful buying at this level (for longs). It is already 3rd day... Oil is still battling around there at 49/50 level. I think it will likely retreat by early next week when general market take profits. SP500 is already near its 2100 resistance level.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 27 2016, 11:20 PM

I think they will hit the big SELL button next week.

I think it will... darn.. oh well. Just go with the flow. Let see how high it can go.
General market is pulling back a little here.

Whoaa.... am I seeing things? Are bears finally awake?

The past 2 months trend for UWTI is UP.. so, I think you're still ok. Don't be surprise the Oil bulls still try to turn it around
when it gets back down to the lower band later (around $30-$32) for another round of push up for this driving seasons.

I got a few batches of XLE here low 66. I think it is at trad-able lows. But, will watch my stop at 66.

It's difficult even for intraday when they gap it down, and buy it back during the day. It ends up flat from prior day.
Unless, you willing to risk it with leaving it overnight. Good luck.. hope it works!

Sometimes for intraday play, best thing is just to play the gap-to-fill spot.

If they gap down, just buy it at open (bull play). If gap up, then sell it down (bear play).

Yes, it is (a yo yo game).. same pattern like yesterday.

The "Gap-to-Fill" game. Right now, it seems to be this case.

So, if you see a gap down, just buy on the long side (or cover immediately if you're already short overnight), it will slowly gap fill up.
But, if you see a gap up at open, just SELL on the longs and short it, it will roll back down.

The price movement goes back to equilibrium...to prior day. Once it has reach there, immediately gets back to cash position (if wish to do intraday trade).

Agree on the observation here.. Energy stocks lag the crude price here.

What about the leverage UWTI/DWTI price action vs. wti crude for the past 1 month?
Do they fair better?

With the much lower expected job growth, I think this will put the brakes on the oil bulls.
Less people looking for jobs, less activity and also less possibility of rate hike this month.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 3 2016, 10:17 PM