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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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Hansel
post Sep 16 2015, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Sep 16 2015, 10:25 PM)
agree. its a matter of time for hike. i prefer to get the pain over fast fast. rclxms.gif
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I've gotten fed-up of waiting and expecting, hence I've put in steps to 'cover' all the periods of when they might hike. The only thing I need to do is to stay alert and when they actually hike, I have to observe if my view is in-line with what that actually happens during the 'knee-jerk window of opportunity', and how lomg will this window last ?

Then I need to time my actions to capitalise on the oportunity to load-up on the stocks that I need to load-up on (which I have identified earlier),... again,... assuming that my view is correct upon the hike.

That would be my strategy this time.

Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:53 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 17 2015, 12:04 AM)
for that, 5% gain is definitely knee jerk.

a hike, however small signifies yellen means what she says - data driven decisions. and the perception of a greater probability of more small increases coming.

bullets ready yes, but the window may be very long... laugh.gif

The Federal Reserve's aggressiveness in raising rates is often, though not always, a determinant in how the economy and financial assets respond. That's why officials at the U.S. central bank have stressed so vigorously that investors should not be focused on when it starts raising rates but rather the trajectory of how long it will take to normalize.
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Well,... tq fro your inputs,.. but I beg to differ, even from the Feds' recommendation. I believe the following scenarios will take place instead :-

When the int rate is hiked fro the first time, that's a very impt signal that the chain of hiking has started. Historically, when the Feds start to hike int rates, they will move the rates up quite aggressively. It then becomes a norm already after that when the rates start to rise gradually, and during this period, the so-called opportunity of 'having stocks on bargain' in the bourse will not be as available as the point of time when the rate was first raised.

However, in case YOU ARE RIGHT instead, then I will have time on my side since the window of opportunity to buy will be longer, which is acceptable to me too.

Whether I am right are you are right, we will never know until we observe the events AFTER the first hike. The only snag is : if you are right, then the 'bargain period will be longer' and the stock price may fall further as time goes by. I would then have the challenge of timing the mkt accurately so that I can grab my targeted stocks at the cheapest possible price.

Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 01:13 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 17 2015, 12:57 AM)
it will be very fluid, no way to assess futher even if a hike comes tmrw.

there is a big wild card out there - china. things there aren't stable at all. banks may be coming under pressure, rmb may be devalued further, etc. this one, i am very mindful.
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Hah,.. if we are going to drag China into the equation, then I will tell with 100% certainty that there will be no rate hike tomorrow. But, honestly, how much weightage will the Feds give to Chine in deciding whether to hike or not ? Perhaps this could be a very new variable that must be included into this equation already, the US never had China as a variable in all her rate hike polices previously. As I always say, times are different today.


Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 01:18 AM

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QUOTE(Rambo69 @ Sep 17 2015, 12:57 AM)
Yeah...It will be very gradually if there is rate hike but won’t happen until central bankers are certain the first increase is having its desired impact and the US
economy can stand on its own without stimulus.
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With China in the equation now, and with a high weightage given to China to decide on the first rate hike and the subsequent hikes till normalization, then the stretch between the first hike till the last one may be stretched over many months, or years, perhaps ? I don't know yet, but I feel that we will be able to tell better after the first hike,.. by listening to the tone of the Feds Governors,....


Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 17 2015, 01:42 AM)
i don't think fed takes china too much into consideration for the first hike but will for the later ones.

they will need to see how china and the rest of the world and oil reacts to it.

my take is there will be a small hike tmrw but with a message "it will take a lot more to do the next one". tongue.gif

really, i put my money on it - sold all my us equities, just shorted some crude. tongue.gif

so, pls put the money where the mouth is! laugh.gif
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You are an objective man, my friend,.. and I am proud to be a debating compadre with you,...

Yes, I agree with your final statement and I have performed the following : I have sold-off half of my ASX holdings and have converted them into the SGD. Now I'm waiting for the 'window of opportunity' to come. Along with this amt and with the SG divdiends that I have earned and accumulated, my warchest is READY !

I was earlier contemplating on converting back my SG dividends in order to buy-in more of the ASX units since they are so easy to get now,... I thought it was a no-brainer. However, that position has since evolved into selling-away from the ASX, and focussing more into the SG REITs,... because I believed a window of opportunity will again open for SG REITs. smile.gif

Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Sep 17 2015, 02:16 AM)
thing is, there is no SURE DIRECTION for a hike or for a no-hike. No expert can predict the market movement after the announcement. And many times, in history, the market moved opposite direction from most experts' prediction. When we have no idea which way the market may move, therefore I think the hike or no hike does not help us for trading. Well, just my opinion.  laugh.gif
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Thank you, yok,... very good points. Hence, the only thing we can do is to prepare our warchest, and when the direction of the mkt finally shows itself, we are ready. On top of the above, we can do A LITTLE BIT MORE by looking at past numbers, historical events and current analyses to prepare ourselves, so as to spare ourselves the inconvenience of rushing to buy or sell when the signal appears.

We must be ready.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 11:35 AM

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People... for this time's FOMC ann't - whether hike or not hike also, there will be strong mkt reactions, why ? Because time is running out for the Feds for a 2015 hike... Some mkt reactions have already shown itself yesterday and today.

No, I'm not talking abt the KLCI !
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Sep 17 2015, 01:47 AM)
latest ....

china, last week 4 execs at the largest broker firm were caught n admitted for insider selling n shorting. today 2 more were under investigation.
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Citic Securities,...my friends,...they are gentlemen, they will pay the fines and serve whatever sentences.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(Rambo69 @ Sep 17 2015, 11:39 AM)
Be careful! don't fall in bull trap.
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Tq Rambo. For myself, I'm aiming for the SG REITs to fall to the levels defined in my TA/Charts. Hence, the worst that can happen to me would be the SG REITs do not fall to such levels, and I don't get to buy-in into such REITs at good prices to earn more SGD dividends.

I will lose out on opportunity costs, and may have to wait again ! ohmy.gif ohmy.gif
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 12:36 PM

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Yeah,.. but sometimes, where patience creeps in into our investing strategy, and we wait too long, then our funds just sit there earning close to 0% (for SGD funds).At the same time, we see our targeted REITs running further and further away and we still have not bought in yet.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(Rambo69 @ Sep 17 2015, 12:52 PM)
Its a big news ahead, anything can happen so the best bet is to wait until the dust has settled unless you are willing to hold for long term.
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hmm.gif I'm holding long term, but I also wanted to buy at the best possible price to enhance the yield/return.

Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Rambo69 @ Sep 17 2015, 03:02 PM)
Average down if you don't like the price you entered at.. brows.gif
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That strategy is obvious,.. but I would want to 'time the mkt' now because the mkt signals are strong enough to take advantage of.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 06:54 PM

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As we sail towards 2.30am,... the three major futures on the NYSE have turned red. Sentiment is changing from what was seen yesterday.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(Omega Z @ Sep 17 2015, 09:51 PM)
FED interest rate will be announced in what Malaysia time?
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For direct 'breaking' news, the best is to monitor Bloomberg. Start monitoring from 2.00 am onwards. Ms Yellen's speech is at 2.30 am early tomorrow morning.
Hansel
post Sep 17 2015, 10:58 PM

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The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500 are all GREEN as of now !

THREE more hours to go ! They are now deliberating in the Federal Reserve Building for the final time after almost two days of mtg !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 17 2015, 11:03 PM
Hansel
post Sep 18 2015, 07:16 AM

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Good morning.

You guys can really tahan,...
Hansel
post Sep 19 2015, 06:12 AM

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Good morning. You guys making good money there, and enjoying yourselves at the same time,... congrats,...

Dow closed at 16384 an hour ago, down by (-)290. AP mkts on MOnday will feel the aftermath,...prepare your bullets.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 01:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 01:28 PM)
good that u cleared on fri! biggrin.gif

i cleared 1/2.

wti now 45.13, inching up.

if dow goes green tonight, gotta switch gears - go uwti or uco. tongue.gif
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How strong is the conviction that this is the turning point for oil price ?

Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 02:33 PM)
i surely dare not say turning point...

but... having seen it drop non-stop every day for 2 months and then recovered 1/3 in 2 days is extraordinary.

i will not want to buy for long term now, only trade.

more fun for now. laugh.gif
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Change trading direction to LONG this time, huh ? rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 03:55 PM)
opec comments, iran, rig count seem not to matter much, usually fizzles out in a day or 2.

the biggie is the hedge funds - i will not go against their longs and shorts! biggrin.gif

their positions can change quickly, interesting days ahead...
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The prb is as bolded. They can always take on new short positions after they closed out the earlier ones.

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