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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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danmooncake
post Dec 9 2015, 10:49 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 9 2015, 09:16 PM)
my friend said XLE gives good dividend, wondering what's its yield at current price.
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Around 4.75% if calculated based on yesterday closing price of 61.60.
But, since it has lost more than 10% YTD, the dividend yield may not mean much here for those energy companies in this ETF. No end in sight in oversupply of crude at this time. The latest comments from IEA chief for 2016 outlook still quite bearish for crude.

OPEC won't do its job to control production to limit prices from falling but letting free for all just to gain market share.
Like that, bears will continue to play and swim in oil here. biggrin.gif

danmooncake
post Dec 11 2015, 12:24 AM

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Day 3, XLE recovers $3... step by step despite crude hanging around $37.
I think there is a chance to see $64-$65. That would be my grouper meal too. Wish me luck. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 11 2015, 12:24 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 11 2015, 02:53 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 11 2015, 02:27 AM)
sending you all my luck.  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif  rclxm9.gif
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Just 26c away from 64, then they start taking proft already.
Hopefully we can see more push to U shape recovery between 64-65 by tomorrow. icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 11 2015, 02:53 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 11 2015, 10:00 PM

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Can't get 64 for XLE by this weekend. Time to take money off the table too. sad.gif


danmooncake
post Dec 12 2015, 01:24 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 11 2015, 10:54 PM)
i want to long crude, oih, xle but looks like diarrhea... sweat.gif
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I don't trust this floor at low 60.xx this time around because the general market is also very weak.

Wait till SP500 and Dow stabilize first... SP500 could go below 2000 and it will bring everything down.
Lots of interest rate hike fears again for next week.

Maybe after hike, it will stabilize and the bulls will be happy again.


danmooncake
post Dec 12 2015, 05:30 AM

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Wow! DWTI broke thru $200 ceiling... drool.gif

It is also quite scary at this level. sweat.gif In Aug, once it got to 236, it took only 3 days to plunge 100 pts.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 12 2015, 05:32 AM
danmooncake
post Dec 14 2015, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 12 2015, 01:35 PM)
the last dwti trade i had was buy 146 sell 150.

dare not go back in again.

when dwti was at about 205 last nite, i went for uwti at 4.20, 4.08... closing 4.11.

with crude near 35, it is super easy to gain 10% or lose another 10%; dwti/uwti will get 3x effect!

monday, will have to be very quick. if crude loses another 2% or more, time to cut everything.
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DWTI at 215.. this is insane level. sweat.gif

I agree with you.. DWTI at this level will give also me heart attack unless you're already holding it
since couple of weeks back (or dare to hold overnight.)

I think will it continue to rocket up because of the math of inverse crude.
If crude continues to drop to another 10%-20%... can DWTI could blast upward another 30-60%?

Massive shorts of oil also can the other effect, there will be massive squeeze the very moment OPEC
changes their mind. All they need is to surprise everyone and say "we going to cut production to..xxx", maybe not even finish that sentence, boom, we will see reversal.

Heck, even XLE near 52 weeks low (below 60 now). sweat.gif

I think better to stay at sidelines and watch for bounce first.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Dec 14 2015, 10:59 PM
danmooncake
post Dec 16 2015, 10:07 PM

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Did you all also catch that bounce yesterday? Going to take some cash off the table before the Fed announcement and see what happens.
danmooncake
post Dec 16 2015, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 16 2015, 01:58 AM)
closed out on uwti earlier.

holding oih.

think oih and xle can go up a bit more.
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For XLE, there is a gap between 61 and 61.65'ish. I think got ikan opportunity here.

danmooncake
post Jan 5 2016, 12:18 AM

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Waah... papa bear come out and play for 2016!! biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Jan 5 2016, 05:41 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jan 5 2016, 02:59 AM)
not an impressive bear.  cool2.gif
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I think it made quite an impressive entry with Dow -450 pts at open.

Even papa bear also must cover a bit to make sure he can reshort again, right? biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Jan 5 2016, 06:37 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jan 5 2016, 06:09 AM)
closing above 2000 is disappointing.  biggrin.gif

lets see how it goes on tuesday china market. if bear continues, we have hope for papa bear reshort us market.  tongue.gif
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There is a gap to fill now. The bull machines love to fill those gap.
I think it should be positive (green) but no higher than last Thursday high unless all these China PMI fear actually meant nothing.

Suprisingly, the oil market didn't lose much..
danmooncake
post Jan 7 2016, 01:15 AM

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Waah! What a day. Papa bear came out again after N.Korea drop that bomb test.

Hey guys, DWTI finally hit (and break above) that 52 weeks high again with Oil breaking down below $35.
It is also rare to see Brent break down below $35 and on par with WTI.

Hard to imagine what price DWTI will zoom to if Oil really drops to twenties. drool.gif

But at this level, it is also scary to play. sweat.gif. Are you still trading this?
danmooncake
post Jan 7 2016, 02:32 AM

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DWTI 251.xx, almost 15% gain... shocking.gif

ok-lah.. better take profit, don't let this reverse course and get away. tongue.gif
danmooncake
post Jan 7 2016, 04:46 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:05 AM)
15%?

dwti
4 jan 184
5 jan 208
6 jan 255

if one is so damn good, can make 38%!

but that is far fetched...

i went in and out, dare not stay overnight, limited gains.

it's past 3am, time to close my last bit.

238->255 isn't bad. biggrin.gif
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Yes. You are correct. In reality, one can't hold this overnight
Only if one has bought from yesterday close, tonight it would that 15% pop.

I guess that 5% drop in oil equates to 15% gain in DWTI.

Oil now has lost the $35 support. I guess it won't be long before we see $30 or even sub $30.
$25 would trigger capitulation.. I think if this happens, the traders will go in and turn the ship around.

danmooncake
post Jan 7 2016, 04:48 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2016, 03:31 AM)
alright, time to zzzz...

tmrw, we'll also see if usd/rm will hit 4.50.

goodnight!
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Ouch.. I don't like US1=Rm 4.5 sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Jan 7 2016, 09:11 PM

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We should export bottled water to those countries that need it.. easier to make than drilling oil from ground. biggrin.gif

At $30'sh, no way those company can make money anymore. Might as close shop here.

I believe even OPEC countries are losing revenue here but they're not saying it.

I think if it dips below $30, we could see a huge rebound the very moment they say "supply cut" or another
unsuspecting supply distribution. nod.gif
danmooncake
post Jan 7 2016, 09:16 PM

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AAPL below $100.. any takers? brows.gif
danmooncake
post Jan 8 2016, 01:17 AM

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It seems Dow futures already reacted to China 2nd circuit breakers news. Now, I think we got some bargain buyers trying to come in and anticipate the job numbers tomorrow since the ADP numbers were strong yesterday.

Also, China intervention by banning selling and circuit breaker didn't help. It sparks more fear among the uncles and aunties in the China's stock market. shakehead.gif


danmooncake
post Jan 8 2016, 02:20 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jan 8 2016, 01:39 AM)
ya, they are amateur.  biggrin.gif
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It's really difficult to predict China stock market since it is diverging away from the real economy.
A "slow down" in growth (not negative here) generated a lot of uncertainties in their financial market.
The indecision by CSRC for their on/off circuit breakers just added more fears. Furthermore, their inclusion by IMF for reserve currency also big mistake.. they manipulated their currency by devaluing it even more just because they want to prop up their market. shakehead.gif




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