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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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win44
post Feb 16 2016, 01:56 AM

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Waiting for the right time to buy in =)
[dwti @ 200?]
win44
post Feb 16 2016, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(talexeh @ Feb 16 2016, 09:01 PM)
Can't wait to see how chaotic it'll be once the opening bell rings. sweat.gif
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Already seeing some downtrend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
win44
post Feb 16 2016, 10:57 PM

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QUOTE(talexeh @ Feb 16 2016, 10:47 PM)
This is intriguing to me as most would see this news as bullish, no?

Taken into consideration that even though Saudi Arabia & Russia are literally at each another's throats over the Syrian issue, the fact that they can sit down peacefully to discuss the crude production speaks volume of how much they're concerned over the current market scenario.

I guess investors or rather speculators were half-expecting that the entire OPEC including Iran would comply with the output freeze instead. sad.gif
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Yeah, alot of talk was going around that a 5% cut for both saudi and Russia would do the trick. And speculators bet on that last friday.
Bloomberg says that a production increase freeze from those 4 countries doesnt mean much, coz those 4 countries were not expected to increase much anyway.

Anyway, fundamentals are back. Oversupply with no pullback from any party.
I expect some general downtrend. perhaps hit $25 by end of next weekend?
win44
post Feb 22 2016, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 22 2016, 02:30 PM)

wti has rolled over to apr, edging up...
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Yeah, i see the edging up for asian market.
And from this website: http://www.avatrade.com/trading-info/cfd-rollover-dates
it says rollover is on 20th march. Perhaps that is why oil closed a little lower on 19th?

Correct me if im wrong, but wouldnt someone who trade early in asian markets (buying crude) can make some easy money due to contango?
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM
From bloomberg chart, the price goes up steadily, not a direct higher open.


win44
post Feb 23 2016, 12:57 PM

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Still waiting for an opportune time to buy in DWTI.

..but USA crude inventory does not seem to be building
win44
post Feb 23 2016, 05:39 PM

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i guess you are right. Too hard to pick either uwti or dwti. No clear indication on where it is headed.
Fundamentals point towards positive side for wti. If usa stockpile is growing slower, that is seen as a positive.
I'll abstain for now. haha

dwti looks like a bargain tho.. @235

This post has been edited by win44: Feb 23 2016, 08:59 PM
win44
post Feb 24 2016, 10:26 PM

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Well, the long term strategy of Saudi has been clearly stated.

WTI has dropped like a rock. haha
win44
post Feb 24 2016, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 24 2016, 10:37 PM)
and this too:

Also pressuring prices, the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, said on Tuesday crude inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations of a 3.4-million-barrel rise.

The U.S. government's Energy Information Administration, which said last week crude stocks hit a record high, releases its supply report at 10:30 a.m. ET (1530 GMT).


maybe more swings at 11.30pm.
*
why 11:30 pm?
win44
post Feb 24 2016, 11:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 24 2016, 11:40 PM)
did u not see this flash at right at 11.30pm? biggrin.gif

BREAKING: Oil pares losses as EIA reports 3.5M barrel US crude stockpile build
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i see now.

Well, i dont know how to take that news. haha.. it is still a build. Although not as bad as initially thought.
I got into DWTI at the worst possible time. Didnt discipline myself. =)
win44
post Feb 24 2016, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 24 2016, 11:48 PM)
hard to say. dow is still -2xx.

it can reverse anytime.

think i go watch tv, come back later...  biggrin.gif
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Is there any place to see live futures?
CME has a 10minute delay. not the best reference
win44
post Feb 25 2016, 10:11 AM

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Yesterday in dwti @302, averaged down to 294.
Got out at 285, cut loss.

Damage control, in large volume of uwti @1.42, out @1.46.

No gain/no loss yesterday.

This post has been edited by win44: Feb 25 2016, 10:39 AM
win44
post Feb 25 2016, 10:42 AM

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Linkedin is up to 117, from its recent huge drop to 100. Thats 17% gain in one month. haha, should have bought in around ~105 ish
win44
post Feb 27 2016, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 27 2016, 12:25 AM)
market totally crude driven.

crude zig-zags, dow follows! biggrin.gif

made some ikan bilis with uwti, also took small profit on oih.
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I'm on the other end.
picking up some DWTI from yesterday till now. averaging down to ~240

win44
post Mar 1 2016, 11:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 1 2016, 10:37 PM)
where is everybody?! laugh.gif
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Praying.

Or at least i am. lol

What do you think, we seen a bottom in oil?

Im betting on the iraqi pipeline to come back online in 1 wk time. And hopefully the overall global Supply still > Demand.

still holding dwti@240 here.

This post has been edited by win44: Mar 1 2016, 11:32 PM
win44
post Mar 2 2016, 11:33 AM

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even with a bad API report, wti still gets back up to $34. So much bull sentiment
win44
post Mar 2 2016, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 2 2016, 03:01 PM)
yep, that's the financial markets at work.

what i read, the shorts are retreating, fresh longs coming in, incl commercial buying.

but the physical surplus may take years to consume:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...is-won-ila2vccq

at this time, i think the broader market bulls are pushing everything higher.

yet, it is precarious - can reverse anytime with the slightest bad news.

for now, i look for wti to touch 37 in the short term.

then, it may fall fast, again...
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Almost EIA time. where do you think itll go?
win44
post Mar 3 2016, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 2 2016, 11:37 PM)
BREAKING:  Oil sinks; US crude inventories rise by 10.4M barrels
big chance to buy or sell?! laugh.gif
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damnit. i dont understand why wti is up..
I guess the bulls are completely ignoring the supply-demand.
win44
post Mar 3 2016, 12:27 AM

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Edit: will hold out for a few more days. and average down, till i need to call it quits.

This post has been edited by win44: Mar 3 2016, 12:38 AM
win44
post Mar 3 2016, 11:49 PM

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a guy mentioned on tradingview,
That WTI surged between 10:30am to 11:30am EST, for the last three days.
He says it is predictable. doesnt happen all the time, but it does on most days.

Interesting to take notice.

..and at 2:30pm, volume drops off. Coffee break perhaps.

This post has been edited by win44: Mar 4 2016, 01:10 AM
win44
post Mar 4 2016, 05:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 4 2016, 02:23 AM)
waited all night to buy back oih, no chance! biggrin.gif
just off the track a bit...

was watching a movie - "the big short" - based on a true story about a few very sharp people who shorted the housing market in 2007, reaped billions when what they expected happened in 2008 - subprime/cdo's collapsed.

another good one being aired now is tv series "billions" - investment houses, fund managers, insider trading... interesting stuff.

recommended for investors/traders! tongue.gif
*
downloading now.

I'm really unsure where oil will move tonight. up coz good jobs report? or sideways, or finally down due to technical reversal.

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