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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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yok70
post Oct 9 2015, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 9 2015, 07:32 PM)
just watching... not sure to dive in or not. sweat.gif
*
buy small batch periodically, i guess. hard to time the market. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Oct 10 2015, 03:41 AM

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This week market super strong in absence of China. I think the Wall Street bulls just gotta to jump in after the dismayed jobs numbers from last Friday (bad numbers are now good) because US Fed will delay act on interest rate.

Darn.. this goes to show the market is hooked on low rate. It's like cocaine. shakehead.gif
yok70
post Oct 10 2015, 04:18 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 10 2015, 03:41 AM)
This week market super strong in absence of China. I think the Wall Street bulls just gotta to jump in after the dismayed jobs numbers from last Friday (bad numbers are now good) because US Fed will delay act on interest rate.

Darn.. this goes to show the market is hooked on low rate. It's like cocaine.  shakehead.gif
*
ya, bull is back, i bet even for china/hk.

this cocaine thing....i have been thinking about it. Well, i am thinking, if rate "should" hike like most experts said, the risk is this: it may not work well. In fact, the current target of checking on inflation is definitely more accurate for measuring a healthy economy rather than the previous jobless number which is kind of a shallow measurement.

I'm saying, if we see inflation stabilize (fed like to see a 2%) towards a healthy number, than only fed raise the rate, the fear in market or even public will be minimum because it simply make obvious sense, it looks "natural to come". The risk for rate hike would be less risky by then.

Well yes, i also agree monetary losing promotes unhealthy business activities that may not benefit real economy growth such as the recent years' corporate keep on borrowing money from banks with extreme low rate to buy back their shares or some other activities. These activities simply creating bigger gap between the rich and the poor since the rich knows how to best utilize the exreme low rate to make giant profit where the poor still stay at where they were. What Ben said was true, the major slow down right now is lack of investment to boost economy. Share buy back definitely not consider an investment that would benefit economy growth, it is just increasing shareholders value, which only benefit mostly people in the rich category.

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 10 2015, 04:30 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 10 2015, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 10 2015, 03:41 AM)
This week market super strong in absence of China. I think the Wall Street bulls just gotta to jump in after the dismayed jobs numbers from last Friday (bad numbers are now good) because US Fed will delay act on interest rate.

Darn.. this goes to show the market is hooked on low rate. It's like cocaine.  shakehead.gif
*
a quick look at dow, spy, qqq - all the major indices or etf's - says after 6 session of gains, we are back to in jan 2015.

even crude 49-50 now is what it was in jan!

lately, i see an increasing no. of drastically opposing views on crude price, global debt levels, etc. from major bodies, incl imf.

we can expect more big swings coming.

dangerous times. sweat.gif



AVFAN
post Oct 10 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 10 2015, 04:18 AM)
Well yes, i also agree monetary losing promotes unhealthy business activities that may not benefit real economy growth such as the recent years' corporate keep on borrowing money from banks with extreme low rate to buy back their shares or some other activities. These activities simply creating bigger gap between the rich and the poor since the rich knows how to best utilize the exreme low rate to make giant profit where the poor still stay at where they were. What Ben said was true, the major slow down right now is lack of investment to boost economy. Share buy back definitely not consider an investment that would benefit economy growth, it is just increasing shareholders value, which only benefit mostly people in the rich category.
*
ya, all that massive amts of cash not going into hard investments, but causing havoc everywhere!

lately, i see an increasing no. of drastically opposing views on crude price, global debt levels, etc. from major bodies, incl imf.

we can expect more and bigger swings in crude, fx, equities in the coming months.

dangerous times. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 10 2015, 11:22 AM
mikehwy
post Oct 10 2015, 02:08 PM

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yaya, opposing views from reputable houses: -

- rate hike
- measurement of indicators for hike
- crude prices

each is damn convincing, but opposing conclusions !

one was saying 'money has no more meaning when rate is zero'

CyanT
post Oct 10 2015, 08:12 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Oct 10 2015, 02:08 PM)
yaya, opposing views from reputable houses: -

- rate hike
- measurement of indicators for hike
-  crude prices

each is damn convincing, but opposing conclusions !

one was saying 'money has no more meaning when rate is zero'
*
In my opinion, it is the uncertainty that caused so much volatility. The market had already anticipated and expected the rate to hike; even though there are people opposing it, they wouldn't be surprised if there's a hike.
Should Yellen had decided to hike on Sep, the market would have been recovered in a couple months, and everyone is calm and the market will be stable, and the world would go about whichever way they should. Now everyone is playing the guessing game, every press conference became a hint of whether the rate will hike or not, and subsequently affecting the market with huge volatility.
Rambo69
post Oct 10 2015, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(CyanT @ Oct 10 2015, 08:12 PM)
In my opinion, it is the uncertainty that caused so much volatility. The market had already anticipated and expected the rate to hike; even though there are people opposing it, they wouldn't be surprised if there's a hike.
Should Yellen had decided to hike on Sep, the market would have been recovered in a couple months, and everyone is calm and the market will be stable, and the world would go about whichever way they should. Now everyone is playing the guessing game, every press conference became a hint of whether the rate will hike or not, and subsequently affecting the market with huge volatility.
*
No other major events will be required, no one can stop the landslide once it starts. laugh.gif
yok70
post Oct 11 2015, 01:57 AM

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QUOTE(CyanT @ Oct 10 2015, 08:12 PM)
In my opinion, it is the uncertainty that caused so much volatility. The market had already anticipated and expected the rate to hike; even though there are people opposing it, they wouldn't be surprised if there's a hike.
Should Yellen had decided to hike on Sep, the market would have been recovered in a couple months, and everyone is calm and the market will be stable, and the world would go about whichever way they should. Now everyone is playing the guessing game, every press conference became a hint of whether the rate will hike or not, and subsequently affecting the market with huge volatility.
*
Thing is, Fed's decision shouldn't put the market as their priority concerned. Fed should only concern on US economy for the decision. So, what's good for us may not be good for US.

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 11 2015, 01:58 AM
Hansel
post Oct 11 2015, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 11 2015, 01:57 AM)
Thing is, Fed's decision shouldn't put the market as their priority concerned. Fed should only concern on US economy for the decision. So, what's good for us may not be good for US.
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Good morning.

The above was what I said earlier, and what the feds were more concerned abt earlier, was the US economy and the US numbers. But in the Sep press briefing, they started talking abt the whole world. So, to me,... if the Feds is going to take into account the whole world before hiking, then there will never be a hike. If down the road they hike EVEN if the whole world is not up to par yet,... then the Feds have done themselves a disservice by undermining their credibility, as in not knowing clearly what to do. To me,... everything is by trial and error.

Or perhaps, this is the way it should be,... everything should be by trial and error in the global environment as we are in today ??? There are so many minds and think-tanks inside the Feds, it does not justify this type of performance.

The Feds DO NOT REALLY KNOW what they wanted. They got something, then they wanted more. BUt they don't see the effect they are creating to all of us.
Rambo69
post Oct 11 2015, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 11 2015, 08:37 AM)
Good morning.

The above was what I said earlier, and what the feds were more concerned abt earlier, was the US economy and the US numbers. But in the Sep press briefing, they started talking abt the whole world. So, to me,... if the Feds is going to take into account the whole world before hiking, then there will never be a hike. If down the road they hike EVEN if the whole world is not up to par yet,... then the Feds have done themselves a disservice by undermining their credibility, as in not knowing clearly what to do. To me,... everything is by trial and error.

Or perhaps, this is the way it should be,... everything should be by trial and error in the global environment as we are in today ??? There are so many minds and think-tanks inside the Feds, it does not justify this type of performance.

The Feds DO NOT REALLY KNOW what they wanted. They got something, then they wanted more. BUt they don't see the effect they are creating to all of us.
*
If they put uncertainties into account in making monetary policy decision, any decision could turn out to be a mistake. Thus when making a decision they should carefully consider the costs of making a wrong one. In the current context, the cost of raising rates too soon and undermining the expansion is fast fading, while the cost of raising rates too late and ultimately forcing a more aggressive hike in rates if the expansion is increasing.
Though the Fed focuses on inflation and unemployment, they also should worry about excesses building in the financial system because delaying rate increases could lead to an undesired buildup of financial imbalances that would be costly to unwind and that eventually could have adverse consequences for economic growth.
If they hikes too soon at low inflation might quickly become deflation, and the Fed will have little room to cut interest rates before returning to zero and the uncertainties world will never ending. rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by Rambo69: Oct 11 2015, 05:23 PM
AVFAN
post Oct 11 2015, 12:46 PM

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QUOTE(Rambo69 @ Oct 11 2015, 12:23 PM)
Though the Fed focuses on inflation and unemployment, they also should worry about excesses building in the financial system because delaying rate increases could lead to an undesired buildup of financial imbalances that would be costly to unwind and that eventually could have adverse consequences for economic growth.
*
that is the biggest danger. there is already excessive junk and what not out there due to prolonged period of cheap borrowing costs. savers are pushed to riskier assets.

and pension funds, pensioners are screwed big time.

when it all breaks, it'll be a mega one.

QUOTE(Hansel @ Oct 11 2015, 08:37 AM)
if the Feds is going to take into account the whole world before hiking, then there will never be a hike.
*
it does look like that at this time.

perhaps the hike will come only when a major crisis erupts, e.g. some major pension fund goes insolvent.

short term, think crude and equities will continue to rise admist growing risks. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 11 2015, 12:47 PM
Rambo69
post Oct 11 2015, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 11 2015, 12:46 PM)
short term, think crude and equities will continue to rise admist growing risks. sweat.gif
*
Yeah..still a room for further upside..Dow should stay below 17600 which is where the sell signal triggered and oil around 53.5-54. wink.gif
Rambo69
post Oct 11 2015, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 11 2015, 12:46 PM)
when it all breaks, it'll be a mega one.
*

ohmy.gif

This post has been edited by Rambo69: Oct 11 2015, 05:54 PM
Hansel
post Oct 11 2015, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(Rambo69 @ Oct 11 2015, 12:23 PM)
If they put uncertainties into account in making monetary policy decision, any decision could turn out to be a mistake. Thus when making a decision they should carefully consider the costs of making a wrong one. In the current context, the cost of raising rates too soon and undermining the expansion is fast fading, while the cost of raising rates too late and ultimately forcing a more aggressive hike in rates if the expansion is increasing.
Though the Fed focuses on inflation and unemployment, they also should worry about excesses building in the financial system because delaying rate increases could lead to an undesired buildup of financial imbalances that would be costly to unwind and that eventually could have adverse consequences for economic growth.
If they hikes too soon at low inflation might quickly become deflation, and the Fed will have little room to cut interest rates before returning to zero and the uncertainties world will never ending.  rclxub.gif
*
If there are too many uncertainties in making monetary policy decisions, then again, I challenge the credibility of the Feds with all her think-tanks around and all the great brains surrounding it. This thinking of mine is reinforced further after hearing the policy of Mr Ben Bernanke in Bloomberg the last few days. Mr Bernanke was Ms Yellen's predecessor.

I think the Feds are putting TOO MUCH costs of making a wrong mistake into their rate hike decision. Too scared to move forward.

As for the rest of your postings, I think those are all the things that the Feds have been debating day in and day out all these months, and among their different regional governors.

I theorise that if Ms Yellen was in-charge last year, she would not even have started the Tapering. Just too scared to move forward.

Now I say this : if the Feds wait for too long and delay too much, people around the wrld would start to pick up loans again and start to borrow again instead of toning down their borrowings,... why ? Because they think that the Feds do not,..'literally have the ba**s' to raise rates.

Personal experience : this is what my RM has been telling me this week after Ms Yellen held back the rate hike. She said, don't worry, can borrow more in USD again. Interest rates will not rise for the time being.
Hansel
post Oct 11 2015, 06:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 11 2015, 12:46 PM)
that is the biggest danger. there is already excessive junk and what not out there due to prolonged period of cheap borrowing costs. savers are pushed to riskier assets.

and pension funds, pensioners are screwed big time.

when it all breaks, it'll be a mega one.
it does look like that at this time.

perhaps the hike will come only when a major crisis erupts, e.g. some major pension fund goes insolvent.

short term, think crude and equities will continue to rise admist growing risks. sweat.gif
*
I'm surprised to hear that the pension funds have not taken steps to unwind their borrowings and their positions in riskier assets since the Tapering took place last year. If there are any entities out there that are taking more risks and not taking steps to defend their assets, then that is their fault.

The function of the Feds is not to ensure that entities make money. The major fubction of the Feds is to maintain an economic and financial stability in the US MARKETPLACE.

If an entity is deemed to be TOO BIG TO FAIL, then that entity is considered to be lucky, in that the Feds will most probably put in steps to bail out that entity. Otherwise, the Americans practise a free market, whereby Lehmans and Bear Stearns were allowed to fall.
Hansel
post Oct 11 2015, 06:40 PM

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Having said all the above, I think the Feds will come to their senses and realise that they cannot take care of the world. They will realize that the world will slowly regain her footings, led by the American economy.

And the American economy must improve first, import more, then this will drag the rest of the world along to improve.

This improvement in the American economy must be sustainable and must be a 'normalized improvement', not the ones sustained by an oversupply of money floating around. A 'normalized improvement' must be backed by normalized interest rates, and NOT continuous almost ZERO RATES.
yok70
post Oct 12 2015, 09:50 AM

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hmm.....but, i think Fed delays on rate hike is not because of concern on world economy, but only because the Fed worried on US economy. So no, I don't think Fed will forever wait until the next crisis arrived. I think Fed will raise the rate when it sees more proof of economy recover IN THE US. Now, Fed talked about China is just because China's economy does affect US (both directly and indirectly ie. through other countries in the world).

Now the circle grows larger. What if, Fed not raise rate, that would harm "other countries", which in the end contributing to the harm on US economy. This circle will be forever until the next crisis arrived. Well, for my "wild guess" (yes, i can only wild guess, i'm this stupid and ignorant. haha!), I think it may not happen for this round of....crisis potential. I guess, the next crisis should come after Fed raise rate for a while. Again, just my, wild guess. Please forgive me. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Oct 12 2015, 09:54 AM
AVFAN
post Oct 12 2015, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Oct 12 2015, 09:50 AM)
hmm.....but, i think Fed delays on rate hike is not because of concern on world economy, but only because the Fed worried on US economy. So no, I don't think Fed will forever wait until the next crisis arrived. I think Fed will raise the rate when it sees more proof of economy recover IN THE US. Now, Fed talked about China is just because China's economy does affect US (both directly and indirectly ie. through other countries in the world).
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maybe obama told yellen to be "caring" for the world to help sign tppa, improve ties with China, gather more support in europe and mideast to keep russia at bay and deal with isis. tongue.gif

hell, it is surely getting more complex, more volatile and faster moving.

tonite looks strange - europe flat, dow futures flat, crude flat... despite asian rallies...
yok70
post Oct 12 2015, 08:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Oct 12 2015, 06:39 PM)
maybe obama told yellen to be "caring" for the world to help sign tppa, improve ties with China, gather more support in europe and mideast to keep russia at bay and deal with isis. tongue.gif

hell, it is surely getting more complex, more volatile and faster moving.

tonite looks strange - europe flat, dow futures flat, crude flat... despite asian rallies...
*
asian rallies is doubtful maybe. Low volume hk market today. hmm.gif

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