Best and worst performance in my portfolio to date:-

EISC = +11.04%

Manulife China = -4.43%

Note: Manulife China down by another 2% after FSM updated it at around 4.15 p.m.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 6 2015, 04:24 PM

Currently I have about 38% to 40% of my portfolio in Greater China.

Topped up all my China linked funds periodically for the past 1 1/2 months. Currently my ROI is down to 4.03%.

My portfolio now is about 85% equity funds and 15% fixed income/bond funds. Should survive this onslaught.

Hi, you may try reading any of these books...

(1) The 3% Signal by Jason Kelly
(2) The Four Pillars Of Investing by William J Bernstein
(3) All About Asset Allocation by Richard Ferri, 2nd Edition.

Sorry, I forgot to ask. Are you looking for books catering for beginner, intermediate or advance/expert readers?

Hahaha, we never learn from our past experience do we?

But then again human beings are strange creatures. This is like telling someone not to smoke, drink, gamble or fornicate because it is bad for our health, sinful, etc. We will still continue doing it and will only stop after something drastic happens.

Yes, these books are related to unit trusts/mutual funds but are geared more towards asset allocation or portfolio rebalancing.

Asset allocation is the key for long term success in unit trust investment. It is the only thing that we can control as retail investors. Good luck in your journey!!!

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 8 2015, 09:32 AM

My Manulife China is now down -10.41%. My other China linked funds are down an average -7.77% to -3.5%.

It is not inconceivable that my funds could go down to -20% or more. I am planning to buy more during this market correction. Mega sales have started.

As Peter Lynch said,

“Now no one seems to know when they are gonna happen. At least if they know about ‘em, they’re not telling anybody about ‘em. I don’t remember anybody predicting the market right more than once, and they predict a lot. So they’re gonna happen. If you’re in the market, you have to know there’s going to be declines. And they’re going to happen every couple of years you’re going to get a 10 percent correction. That’s a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly. That’s what a “correction” is called. And a bear market is 20-25-30 percent decline.

They’re gonna happen. When they’re gonna start, no one knows. If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t be in the stock market. I mean the stomach is the key organ here. It’s not the brain. Do you have the stomach for these kinds of declines? And what’s your timing like? Is your horizon one year? Is your horizon ten years or 20 years?

What the market’s going to do in one or two years, you don’t know. Time is on your side in the stock market.”

My 2 cents view is that using the Value Averaging Method is the best strategy forward for the next few months. We don't know whether the China market is entering into a free fall or how long it is going to last. It could last a few weeks, a few months or a few years.

This is the time when we separate the men from the boys. Definitely not for the faint hearted to invest now.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 09:12 AM

Good for you because you managed to "time" the market.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 09:40 AM

Yeehah. Fasten your seat belt. By the end of this month, with the triple "disaster" of IMDB, China and Grexit, it is quite likely that a lot of our portfolio will turn RED and the ROI will turn negative.

Everything from Ponzi 1, Ponzi 2, China funds to TA European Equity Fund will fall. In summary, it is the end of the world aka Armageddon.

As investors, I assume we have 4 options:-

(1) Sell off everything and swear off unit trust forever. See other forums where "investors" have ranted that unit trusts are useless and "cheating" money.

(2) Stay put. Hibernate in a cave somewhere and wait for the storm to pass. It may take a few months or a few years for your unit trusts to recover if you made a one lump sum investment buying at the peak of the market.

(3) For new potential investors in FSM, wait for the "perfect" moment to buy the unit trusts at the lowest price and sell at the "highest" price later (i.e. market timing). Good luck and let me know if you succeed in doing this. I wish to call you sifu.

(4) Practice DCA and VCA for the next months or few years until thing stabilise. Then take profit or do portfolio rebalancing depending on when the markets rebound.

When Charlie Munger or Warren Buffett were asked how they think the market will perform for the next 6 months or 1 year, their answer was..."the market will fluctuate".

My 2 cents view. In theory, if the market goes down continuously for the next 10 years, nobody will invest in the stock market. Who would want to invest in a SURE LOSE game? Conversely, if the market goes up continuously for the next 10 years without a break, everyone will be lining up at the bank, Ah Long, chettiar for personal loans to invest in the stock market because it is a SURE WIN game.

Therefore we are experiencing a "normal" market now because it is fluctuating.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 09:41 AM

Yes, provided you do the proper research. Aim for a good fund which has dropped 8% or more.

Invest using DCA or VCA for the next 6 months or so. Only do a lump sum investment if you have a high risk appetite. We don't know whether the "good" fund may drop another 10% in another month or so.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 09:47 AM

Post 254 is just my illustration on rational and irrational investor behaviour to market fluctuation.

My personal experience in investing in unit trusts:-

1. We invest in unit trusts using spare cash. We have back up emergency funds of at least 3-6 months. No bad debts e.g. credit card debts.

2. Long term investment horizon of at least 2-3 years. This will even out the market fluctuation.

3. We cannot time the market. Therefore we have to do DCA or VCA and do portfolio rebalancing from time to time.

If we cannot satisfy the above requirements, it is best to stay away from unit trust investments or any other investments for that matter. Unit trust investments is not a capital guaranteed get rich quick scheme. There are risks involved.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 10:10 AM

You used the wrong method. You should have intra switched your China fund into its equivalent bond fund. In this way, you earn credit points. Later when you switch back from the bond fund into your China fund, you incur ZERO sales charge.

Your current method of switching into CMF2 means you are SELLING your China fund. This means when you buy into the China fund again from CMF, you will incur the 2% sales charge again.

I think you owe me a cup of coffee.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 10:48 AM

Hi, 8% is just an arbitrary figure which I pluck from thin air. If you do a search on FSM, you will see that some funds have dropped 8% to 12% in one month. If you have the risk appetite and have done the proper research on a particular fund, you can buy in slowly now on the assumption that the fund will re-bound later. Of course if you have no faith in the funds which have dipped now, then please just STAY OUT and don't buy at all.

Why buy funds which have dropped substantially in "value"? This is what Benjamin Graham call a margin of safety. If a fund is selling at 10% to 20% discount, it may re-bound later.

Once it rebound, you have a margin of safety. This is because at some point in the future, the fund will dip again. Even if it dip 10% to 20%, you have a margin of safety because you bought it "cheap" in the first place. Therefore you won't panic in the future because you will suffer no "loss" or only suffer minimal "loss".

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 03:33 PM

I don't mean to be crude but having balls of steel in the present market condition is not sufficient. We need to grow an extra pair of balls as well to continue investing now.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 9 2015, 04:40 PM

All markets green today? Mega sales over or dead cat bounce? Place your bet.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 10 2015, 05:07 PM

Don't curse me-lah. I am still topping up my China linked funds.

But I have no wrap account. So I have to do the poor man's version of the wrap account to avoid paying the sales charges. The transactions are still "hanging" in cyberspace.

This post has been edited by Vanguard 2015: Jul 10 2015, 05:18 PM

Lay man assessment of the current global market:-

1. Europe and Japan are relatively cheaper in valuation and worth buying in?

2. US market is still relatively expensive. Not worth buying in?

3. China market will rebound in the short run and then resume its market correction for the mid-term.

4. Malaysian market will resume its slow bleed until the end of 2015. Worth buying some for long term investment?

5. To keep more in fixed income/cash to take advantage of opportunities of the volatile markets?

Note : The Malaysian market is like the boiling frog story. This is an anecdote describing a frog slowly being boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is placed in boiling water, it will jump out, but if it is placed in cold water that is slowly heated, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. In this context, the Malaysian market is declining slowly but surely, i.e. a slow boil.

In contrast, the Shanghai market is like putting a frog into boiling water. The frog will jump out immediately because the market fell 30% in one month.

As the saying goes, reading about investment principles and concepts from books alone is like telling a virgin how to make love by reading a book. It...just....cannot....be done. You have to get in there and experience it yourself; the thrill, the joy, the fear and the greed.