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 Fundsupermart.com v11, Grexit or not, Europe will sail on...

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wongmunkeong
post Aug 9 2015, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Aug 9 2015, 09:12 PM)
just asking.....about the XIRR calculation....
example if
Portfolio started investing in 1 Jan 2010 RM 10000
Portfolio grow to RM 13000 in Jan 2013
ROi is 30%...Xirr is about 9.x%

if the growth stagnated in whole of 2013.....(which means Rm 13000 remains through out the whole year).
does the XIRR value remains the same in every month from Jan 2013 till Dec 2013?
if yes,....will the XIRR suddenly changes in Jan 2014?
*
XIRR will change based on end date, assuming U place the last date as "=TODAY()"
Thus, if used properly - it'll change every DAY, not just every month... if U changed the end date lar tongue.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 9 2015, 09:16 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 9 2015, 09:27 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Aug 9 2015, 09:19 PM)
I may be seriously wrong...I think most XIRR formula did not have "month" factor in it. which means the results are the same in Jan, March, June, Sept....... can you PLEASE confirm if the XIRR value changed when the month are changed ?
*
bro, as long as your XIRR is setup as below, it'll be good
eg
ColA; ColB
1/1/2013; -10000
1/2/2013; -10000
1/3/2013; -10000
.
.
.
=Today();-SUM(Bx:By) ie sum all the rows above for row B but negative it, ie turn it positive
wongmunkeong
post Aug 9 2015, 09:40 PM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Aug 9 2015, 09:31 PM)
thanks tested mine....xirr value changes when the month changes
I just saw this,...
the "Last" example.....
he has this....
Excel XIRR returns a compounded annual rate.  If you want the equivalent compounded 9-month rate, you would use the following paradigm (see the screenshot below):

(1+XIRR(F2:F6,A2:A6))^(9/12) - 1

http://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/office/...6a3ece70?auth=1

therefore I am just curious...he has this month factor in there and therefore I asked.
*
Thanks YKLooi.
Heheh - way too complicated for me.
I just use IF >=365, then show the XIRR, else show simple returns tongue.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 10 2015, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(polkiuj @ Aug 10 2015, 12:02 PM)
blood blood blood
*
er.. mana? CH? MY? INDONESIA? BRAZIL? RUSSIA?
nothing major yet wor (net falls of >20%pa) or i missed something?
wongmunkeong
post Aug 10 2015, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(polkiuj @ Aug 10 2015, 02:11 PM)
MY la. Not that big bad blood (>20%) yet lol.

But KLCI is down almost 2% and Small cap down almost 4%
*
ya lor small cut only so far
not even comparative to ASEAN ETF's 52 weeks hi vs now (-13% to -16%)

thought U saw real nice lelong blood.. laugh.gif

BTW, Shanghai Index up again 4%+.
Yo yo yo!
wongmunkeong
post Aug 11 2015, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 11 2015, 11:35 AM)
Real Investors talk about IRR or xIRR because they will hold their investment assets over a period of multi-years.

Punters aka speculators will talk about ROI because they will hold their stock in hand over a period of perhaps hours, days or week.

IRR or xIRR is meaningless to punters and ROI is meaningless to Real Investors.

ROI is a measurement of gain per trade; whereas IRR or xIRR is a measurement of gain over a period (p.a. is the standard measurement).

So which one are you? Punter or Real Investors?

Many Punters will disguise or trick themselves thinking they are investors.

Xuzen
*
i know what i am - generally a "long term PUNTER/TRADER", rare like "honest politicians" laugh.gif
but.. seriously, i do look at both net ROI & IRR leh - to get a balanced view

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 11 2015, 01:00 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 14 2015, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(iamoracle @ Aug 14 2015, 11:24 AM)
KLCI falls below 1,600 level at 11.05am. Down 23.33 points to 1,598.29.
*
yawn.gif
wake me when/if it hits 1500+/- drool.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 21 2015, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Aug 21 2015, 07:36 AM)
Stocks plunge 2% on Fed, growth concerns

U.S. stocks closed near session lows on Thursday, off more than 2 percent, as investors weighed continued uncertainty about the timing of a rate hike and concerns about global growth headed by slowing in China.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average both had their worst day since Feb. 3, 2014. ( Tweet This )

URL: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-slips-tr...-140214802.html
*
Bull has been gored 3 days in a row & yesterday's was the biggest 1 day hit since 2014 Feb.
Come on baby... gimme value! drool.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 24 2015, 04:05 PM

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momma said:
1. when everyone is ASKING or DOING.. still not enough blood yet (if opportunistic).
2. when everyone curses and/or everything goes silent.. THEN enough blood for opportunistic "fire breakout, rob"

just sharing what momma told me tongue.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 24 2015, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Aug 24 2015, 04:19 PM)
That is...TOTAL copulation... brows.gif

oops, I meant, total capitulation tongue.gif
*
copulation or capitulation.. doesn't matter coz my YingLish & IQ not enuf hi to UnderStand.. tongue.gif
only know keep on going with the plans momma helped me draw up - die die save, invest VCA, buying spree when fire breaks-out

sumimasen.. watashiwa baka-sama sweat.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 24 2015, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ Aug 24 2015, 04:20 PM)
Yes actually. The recommendation is 5-10% of net asset in gold bullion. People will buy gold in global financial disaster causing the price to soar. That actually offset the fall in your stock and bond. Also gold can be used to as hedge for the collapse in currency. Are you aware that about 8 months ago when gold was about $1200 per oz., UOB is selling paper gold at about RM127 per gram? Recently gold went down to $1100 per oz. but UOB is selling them around Rm136 per gram. Now gold is at $1150 per oz. but UOB is selling them around Rm157 per gram. Ringgit down, no worry because you got gold as insurance.
*
Gold?
May be a wee bit too late now since gold in RM and USD up liao
If one were to be buying when gold went down down down (ie. 2014 last quarter) till like last month+/-, now staring at "forex" gains.
my bad - i tread gold as a different "currency" and average down whenever less than my average cost by xx.xx%

Just a thought notworthy.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 24 2015, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Aug 24 2015, 04:36 PM)
Seriously sometimes u guys post / talk like some alien language which I don't understand..

needed to google to understand it. blush.gif  sad.gif

Capitulation:-

When investors give up any previous gains in stock price by selling equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.
*
kamsiah kamsiah bro notworthy.gif

heheh - momma said only way to grow/learn is to be a bit "uncomfortable" - thus U growing/learning well,
VS my lazy butt didn't google translate capibaralation (not growing/learning)

wongmunkeong
post Aug 24 2015, 04:43 PM

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Thanks to fellow forumer, AVFan, who posted in US stocks thread

Five charts that prove this selloff is serious
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/24/market-sell...ive-charts.html

Bottom line: hang-on folks, the ride's beginning.. wohoo!
(thank gawd for asset allocation yeah babe, yeah!)

US futures down 2%+
CH went mad.. but still 52 weeks hi lo is +ve
ASEAN is circling round the toilet bowl, though not flushed down yet (ie. less than 20%-25% kaboom from 52 weeks hi-lo)
Be calm my beating heart - dunno whether from excitement or fear - most probably both sweat.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 24 2015, 04:50 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 25 2015, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Aug 25 2015, 03:47 PM)
Well European stocks are doing quite well at the open now. And most of Asia is in the green except for China, HK and Japan.

Let's hope that the last 4 sessions of sell down in the Chinese market will bring in the bargain hunters for tomorrow's session. Bank of China supposedly injected an additional 150 billion yuan worth of liquidity today via seven-day reverse repurchase agreement.
*
dude - even with so much sell downs, those who bought earlier, within the 52 weeks, are still making 30%+/- leh.
IMHO - it aint a bargain... yet tongue.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 25 2015, 04:13 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 27 2015, 11:47 AM

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QUOTE(David83 @ Aug 27 2015, 11:24 AM)
Hesitate to top up since all green today! doh.gif
*
energy / petroleum companies still down leh brows.gif
CVX (Chevron or locally AKA Caltex): ttm PE 11+/-, forward PE 13+/-, Net DY% 4.10%+/- (after 30% tax); bought in yesterday night, thus know a bit more details on CVX;
XOM (ExxonMobil or locally AKA Mobil.. er.. now gone from MY): ttm PE 12+/-, forward PE didn't check
BP
etc etc

Just sharing my PoV notworthy.gif
Brent Crude Oil per barrel is currently $42+/-,
fell more than 52% from it's 52 weeks high of $90+
AND
the last time 3 times it fell to $43+/- and below was:
1. a month in Dec 2008 (then boing)
2. 2 months+ in Nov-Jan 2004 (then boing)
3. before that, generally Brent Crude was $30 and below till even $10 per barrel

Taking the above
+ keeping in mind value of $ 2004 and further VS current value of $
+ looking at good & efficient companies (ie. cost to produce per barrel <= $20+/-)
VS
- current stockpile
AND
eventually if price of crude keeps "staying below" break-even, we'll have:
+consolidation of oil producers (ie. survivors eat small fellows) thus more "price control" by sellers
+cheap energy encourages "non-saving" attitude, ie. use lar - buy big cars, use more aircond, etc - creating higher demand
(sounds like the cycle of life & basic economy 101 right?)

Anyhow - i bought to be able to hold for >3 years, not with survival $ ya.
Your mileage may vary if your reasoning + holding power differs - no right/wrong, just wong here laugh.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 27 2015, 11:50 AM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 27 2015, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Aug 27 2015, 11:29 AM)
still very low compare to 1 week ago. Don catch a falling knife.
*
As i'm not trading mutual funds / ETFs or stocks, i'd risk "catching a falling knife" if it's of value to me & fits my plans since i pray to buy at discounts tongue.gif

Trading-wise, definitely won't try unless with great premiums-to-risk rewards + a few exit plans (cut loss).

Just thinking that some fellow investors here may understand the "don't catch a falling knife" too literally.
It depends on how it fits one's plans. notworthy.gif
wongmunkeong
post Aug 27 2015, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 27 2015, 01:37 PM)
Wong Sifu,
Am I taking "correction" too literally? "Correction" as in how some smart analysts like to describe a sharp downfall.

Prices were previously too high, so all were corrected to a lower level where prices will be traded within a new bandwidth, somedays up, somedays down. And will take maybe a long time to reach back the overprice peak levels.

Correct or not?  hmm.gif

If correct, then can we safely say that the prices these 2 days are more or less cosmestic up days for quarterly reports? And volatility will continue next week and more interesting with Monday holiday for us, Thursday for Hong Kong market where most China funds will not be priced, and especially next Friday before Wall Street goes on a 3-day weekend.

=============

What quarterly reports am I talking?  doh.gif  This is still August, not September...  smile.gif
*
Yo J.Passing.By,

Not sifu lar bro - just "see food, eat food" (black hole for food) laugh.gif

U talking about "market correction"?
In "market talk"-wise, yeah i read 10%+/- is such an animal,
20%+/- is a crash, etc etc
---
However, personally i worry about such words being used to categorized, thus summarily programming/affecting my own investing or trading response/thoughts.

Case in point:
It fell 9%-11% yeah. "Correction".
but ar - is it "corrected enough"
eg for China's Shanghai index - the past year+ run-up was like 120%+/- but these past months fell 30%+ only, heck even if 40%, it'll still be crazy-high VS time, though 2 days back it's index has fallen within the 1, 3 & 6 years' standard deviation - becoming a well-behaved animal again tongue.gif
VS
should i assume that it's alright now since "correction" happened liao?
eg. can just buy that index/market liao safe enough
---

Sorry, i digress - just had to point out the danger of using simple "categorization" words that can affect one's judgement/actions.

I'm unsure whether the prices for these 2 days are cosmetic - for quarterly reports.
U talking about US markets right?
All i can "see" & "fact" (my reality, based on my personal perception) is:
1. US markets have hit crazy volatility last Thu till now
We are talking about historically happening like.. 3 or 4 times in EVER! (ie. longer than "Malaysia" existed)

2. Lots of disagreements / bear-bull fighting
Past 2 days - S&P500 opened up very high , then fell, then yesterday jumped like a man on fire

3. I agree with U that S&P500 is now within "normal" price band
- ie not way above or below 1 or 3 or 6 years' standard deviation.
BUT NOT lelong yet generally - i won't happily go buy just coz of some commission discount/promo unless it happens to be my time for VCA brows.gif

I think at item (3.) - we share the same reality.

However there are pockets of lelong if one were to look into -
eg
to me: HCP or healthcare REITs, CVX+XOM+COP or energy sector
and yes, $ where my mouth is sweat.gif did get into those 2 sectors / stocks

Note - still hope hunting / GTC (good till cancelled) for crazy fear if it continues down another 10%+ for KO & PAYX
i generally hope & buy, then zzz-monitor held
VS buy and hope laugh.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 27 2015, 03:02 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 27 2015, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 27 2015, 03:57 PM)
Wong Sifu... still the sifu here anyway...

So it all - whether it is pullback, correction, bear, bull, or whatever - boils down to hindsight, after the event had happened that we know what animal it is. Just that some analysts' predictions carried more weight than us non-analysts' bs.  laugh.gif

Sometimes there is too much info to brain; that's why sticking to UT, not stocks. This restless investor is still trying to gain an extra edge; now breaking up long-term into a series of short-term...  tongue.gif
*
bro - not saying "mutual funds are bad" like tinkosong ar
just another PoV:
a. Equity Mutual Funds: Mgt Fees 1.5% - 2%pa die die must pay whether market up/down/left/right
VS
b. ETFs: Mgt fees 0.25%pa to 0.75%pa
VS
c. Stocks of individual companies: No mgt fees pa

Assuming:
1. One has the discipline/hunger to save
2. One has enough to transact RM2.5K to RM3K per transaction
3. One has enough time/hunger to do homework
AND
Assuming overall equity market returns 8%pa-10%pa before fees

Just holding (a.) vs (b.) vs (c.):
Mutual funds will "lose us": 1.5% / 10% pa = 15% of our returns every year
VS
ETFs: 0.5% / 10% pa = 5%
VS
Stocks: 0%

Compound the "loses" 60 years (30 years build-up +30 years retirement) and whoa... comparatively lar tongue.gif
Keep in mind whether make or lose, still 1.5% to 2% mgt fees ar.

To some, like me, it may be worth the pain/effort to build up into ETFs and stocks -
ie. while still holding current equity funds / reallocating between funds,
new cash investments only into ETFs and direct stocks.

Screenshot of simple Excel for easy visualization
10% CAGR
Attached Image

8% CAGR
Attached Image

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 27 2015, 04:36 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 27 2015, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(j.passing.by @ Aug 27 2015, 05:06 PM)
Cannot think like this leh, as we cannot lose what we don't have.

If we think of these costs as losses, then very difficult to survive as 'no man is an island'; we will find it very difficult to spend money on anything if we don't want to allow any goods and service providers to make any profit from us!  ohmy.gif

Simple to just think of net returns. If we spend time and effort on picking stocks on our own, then obviously we should expect better returns.
*
heheh - like i said, no absolutes (right/wrong).
I dont begrudge people from making a living
Just that if i myself sweat a bit more and can "pay myself" that 1.5%-2%pa - whoa..

Notice i didn't even compare "entry cost" - each vehicle has it's uses.
Each person may use a vehicle very differently
Those with businesses and/or high flying /paying jobs - i guess no point DIY into ETFs & stocks
VS
kuli like me heheh - hard earned $ leh, i must be like sniper (headshot!) when possible to ensure best deployment of bullet given what is known
notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 27 2015, 05:18 PM
wongmunkeong
post Aug 27 2015, 08:23 PM

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QUOTE(kimyee73 @ Aug 27 2015, 07:44 PM)
Did you get a bargain on CVX? Big 5 oil companies are still running with cash deficits for the last 10 years and oil is not bottom yet with Saudi/OPEC cranking up supply to maintain market share, Iran oil coming out soon and US shale oil producers increasing supplies to service their debts. Supply is more than demand now.
*
Got it at ultra-low $70s and it's my 1 of 6 opportunity bullets for 6 months.
Yup, as i shared pros/cons - i dunno where's the bottom & the stockpile, but cycles being cycles.. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 27 2015, 08:24 PM

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