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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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tehoice
post Nov 4 2015, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 4 2015, 10:01 AM)
My exit TP is 1.67
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 4 2015, 10:02 AM)
Their earnings have been resilient, though not growing. Hope that this can reignite their growth
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so queing to sell ad? or revising their tp and hopeful that the growth can be reignited?
tehoice
post Nov 9 2015, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 9 2015, 09:30 AM)
What do u think of a company that...

High gross profit margin, in high teens %
Revenue growth rate 20% p.a. compounded for the past 6 years
BUT, very high borrowings, gearing about 100% sweat.gif
Hence net profit margin is quite low, in single-digit %

In my opinion, if the revenue growth rate and GP margin can be maintained,
(1) gearing can be reduced quite fast
(2) net profit margin can be improved

Low single digit P/E...

Can consider to delve deeper? hmm.gif
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have to see what business are they in? some business just need a lot of borrowings or high capax, or some business like the telco will have more borrowings or low cash in hand since they know the amount of cash which will be coming in at the end of every month....?

QUOTE(TakoC @ Nov 9 2015, 10:53 AM)
Recently they having this 4 days sales right?

So how would you interpret this situation without looking at the company financial at all?

Inventory build up cannot sell, so now want clear stock by selling cheap? So sales not good?
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you to take a look at its balance sheet? they are in the fashion line where the stocks needs to be changed every season. they're not in some staple goods business where there is no need much of fashionable changes.

but i gotta agree with you that these sales would make a dent in the "inventory loss". they even group them into 3 categories......... it puzzles me.... but as a shareholder, i'm more than happy to see the crowd and the queue to pay. they are still doing well. like what i have said before, this business model is easy to understand if you are in the retail line. RM2.50 is a bit far fetched, but RM2 is definitely achievable.

but pinkie is right too, gotta observe what's in the upcoming quarterly report. let's see.
tehoice
post Nov 9 2015, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Nov 9 2015, 02:29 PM)
Unker Teh has given quite good explanation d. I was expecting Unker Pinky to tambah batu api somemore hahaha  brows.gif

For clothing/fashion line, their margins are usually very good.
So whatever discount/clearance/firesale etc, they will still earn some margin for sure.
So I rather a business sell off most of their stocks with minimal margins instead making impairments and writing them off at a loss.

If you quantify the 3 groups of inventory losses, stocks written down to NRV, stocks W/O: overall i think the figure is still small and manageable.
U should compare this figures versus those recognised in their COS and current inventory balance in BS, so the % impact is still negligible and acceptable for their line of business. All retailers and most businesses incur similar expenses but lower.

Padini has been in the biz for quite a while, so I'm sure they know what they are doing despite facing massive competition all around. As Unker Pinky says it well enuf: their earnings are resilient. And this would eventually result in consistent and higher dividends in the end.
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by your definition, how old is consider an unker? by the way, who's unker teh? lol!
tehoice
post Nov 9 2015, 04:19 PM

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i wonder his definition. lol... i'm in my 20s and i'm uncle... maybe because i'm in my late 20s.... haha...
tehoice
post Nov 9 2015, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Nov 9 2015, 04:51 PM)
My 2nd para answers it already lo. I was looking from a business pov and from my personal experience to such industry. Also had an opportunity to kacau COACH stocks before too. The margins... for a noob looking accessory = wtfbbq~!
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all the luxury product margins are cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif

but shareholders rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 10:15 AM

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chillax guys....

oh wow! sea of red today, only padini and tmclife the green on my watchlist.... what happen eh? hmm.gif
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 11 2015, 10:33 AM)
laugh.gif

I am chill.

My points highlighted against Padini were based on what the numbers were showing...
if my interpretation of the numbers were wrong, please feel free to point out so..... 
for example, profits were down (margins were down too! ) and the profit trend wasn't encouraging either....
with such profits and decline in dividends, was it WRONG to declare Padini as an average company? (some might even call it poor too!)......
it was no malice and it wasn't personal....
more so, my older postings in 2013, showed that I was not impressed with the stock too.....
that's my opinion......
and don't we come to stock forum to share opinions?

but sadly....
stock forum has always its cliches....

wink.gif

one with vested interest rarely like it when others state the obvious against their vested interests....

it's normal.
and if we are adult enough...
we should know our own personal poison consumption....

icon_rolleyes.gif
and yeah...
there's always the ignore function.

biggrin.gif
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don't worry, different people different judgement, but i may not agree with you on your declaration though you made your interpretation were purely based on the numbers (I know numbers don’t lie) but some accounting treatment/recognition can make certain numbers look good (pun intended) by the company themselves. You wanna know why the profits and margins were down? Mainly due to the absorptions of GST, they did not pass the gst to the purchasers for their old stocks (prior to gst implementation). Like what pinkie said, a company of such calibre who are able to blend in strong competition in such economy state, not so bad afterall, mind you, they have not launch their online thingie yet, this will give them a new source of revenue stream down the road. Like I said before, the business model of this company is really easy to understand and I’m still liking it despite the stagnant growth for the moment, it will still definitely have room for growth in the future (for their mass market audience), they don’t target niche market, they are doing what the most people can afford, average joe like me. Brands like uniqlo isn’t really cheap, and idk what are their strategy really is. Either you target the mass or you target the very rich, where do they position themselves? Maybe I will need to study them, are they listed?

Padini make up 30% of my portfolio, I invested some years ago with an average of about 1.5, now with the price of about 1.66 together with the dividends receipt to-date, easily 25% and above plus the small capital gain, this stock alone gives me about close to 35% gain in less than 4 years. I know, it’s just average, nothing to shout about deal, but with annual dividends coming in, as a shareholder who doesn’t go for a roller coaster ride, pretty good investment isn’t it?

In conclusion, every company that gives you positive return is a good trade, agree? Cheers.

NB: pls don’t mind my English, usage of words and grammar of the posts, I don’t have time to go and correct time, I just type whatever comes into my mind, so long you understand me will do.

tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 11 2015, 10:57 AM)
Today is a good day to hunt for bargains brows.gif

Asia still fairly resilient, it's just KLSE hmm.gif
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eye on anything? brows.gif
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Nov 11 2015, 11:03 AM)
There's a blog post on Padini vs Uniqlo:

Padini vs Uniqlo?

Read the comments part as well.

Read Forbes article as well. Search for Part 1 to 3.

The future of fashion retailing
Another article which I find fascinating although I have read about them before, but it is still a reminder/refresher to me. Not related to Padini and Uniqlo. But the concept can be applied.

Rapid Growth
PS: I like Ah Boon's poison teeeheee. But still long way to reach his level  cry.gif
      The journey of a thousand miles begins with a first step~  flex.gif

PSS: Tehoice, how's your guppies doing. haha i think a lot of your cash goes to buying more tanks and maintaining them. Changing water frequently = pain in the butt.  laugh.gif
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Thanks for the link, I will have a good read when I’m free. But at one glance, padini is still holding the upper hand (at least in the current local market).

The remain are to be seen, can anyone borrow me your crystal ball? Hehe…

Haha…. Yeah, I spent a lot in expanding my tanks and getting stocks previously! But now are slowly recovering, no more rapid expansion now, will stop growing for 2-3 years, going to concentrate on just improving my margins and maintaining high quality stocks. Haha…. (since we are in stock exchange, gotta speak more jargons than just lay man guppy language). By the way, my guppies are doing really great, forseeing some good cash in-flow in 3-4 months time, you wanna book yours first (do you keep guppies)? Give you a special discount first, since we all same “kaki” haha… frequent water changing is a must la, in order to keep my biological inventory in good state, or later I gotta write off my inventory you know! Haha….

tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 11 2015, 11:13 AM)
Looking at Tekan Besi mar tongue.gif

TC-Titan it's a good but not a fair comparison...

Uniqlo started from a low base (little no. of outlets relative to Padini's), 1 additional outlet opening will bump up the figures by a lot, whereas if Padini were to open/close 1 outlet, the impact would not be significant.
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huh, what's tekan besi?

then from what you say, each outlet will have more marginal impact for uniqlo (from basic point of view, seems a better business right?

Edit: press metal is it? lol...... i mau tekan bubis vietmoi stock got ar? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by tehoice: Nov 11 2015, 11:20 AM
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 11 2015, 11:22 AM)
Translate to England and u will know tongue.gif

No...

uniqlo kan got lesser outlets compared to Padini?

Let's say u have 4 outlets, each can deliver sales of RM200K, so total RM800K
U open 1 more outlet, bring in another RM100K (new outlet mar, so starting slow sikit)
RM100K / RM800K = sales naik 12.5%

But if u are Padini, got e.g. 100 outlets
U open 1-2 more outlet, the additional sales gonna be minimal in % terms

Just like, if u compare Maybank to Alliance Bank lar...the scale of operation and base for comparison are different. So, if u compare their improvement in topline, not a fair comparison icon_rolleyes.gif

Totally agree on your observation...Padini is more mass market, whereas uniqlo is more mid-upper. Easiest way to see is, I don't see many meleis at uniqlo outlet at MidValley, whereas at Padini I see many melei customers.
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yeah i know, see my edited. i mau press something else... haha....

ok.jpg, noted on the explanation and I understand.

Yeah the target audience is important, I don’t deny that the mid-upper has more spending powahhh but economies of scale is one of the padini’s strengths. I believe they can capitalise their lower costs of production, mobility costs, and avenue of distributing it (end-user platform, i.e. more outletssss).

tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 11 2015, 11:39 AM)
biggrin.gif

Appteciate your lengthy reply.
Makes my day.

Yes, in a sense, all trade that yields a positive return HAS got to be a good trade.
No doubt.

But as a trader, I for one, seek repitition of success.

Can we repeat such a trade?
Oh, yes.
i agree.
There is always a reason for poor results.
But then....which is why, if you look back a couple of pages, I posted the past few trends.
What's the trend?
One year good, one year bad.
Numbers ding dong.
Again, reasons aside, I call it average ( apparently average was offending...lol)

For my style, stock like this will not pass my screener.
It's average.

I? I like to aeek companies who are doing good.
And not average.
AsvI believe good companies with good results should yield better results for my trades in the long run.
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nola, no one is wrong and no one is right. no need to have winner all the time.

i once worked for my ex-boss on a deal that is 100% write off. i don't want to name my ex-boss, but everyone knows him.

he wanted to purchase to some warrants. but he cant convert the warrants cos he is holding about 32% of the mother share, anything more than 33%, he has to do a GO. but the warrants is expiring in 6 months time (the value of the warrants will go down as it nears the expiry).

he still die die want to subscribe the warrants. so 6 months later, few million down the drain, write off in the accounts. so? is there a winner? is that a winning trade? obvious answer is no and he still wanna do it. maybe he has his own reason that no one knows. so how???? you wanna comment/rate such purchase > write-off?

moral of the story? too much of $$$ and he rather burn it than giving it to us as bonus. lol....


tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Nov 11 2015, 02:03 PM)
I use to rear some fishes. But all Koed, kena makan by each other lol

Thinking very hard whether to rear some again n not let them eat each other again Lolz. Will book from u next time when I do start.

Your side biz really good leh. When want to buka kedai? biggrin.gif
Your stocks mainly from Taiwan only?
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lol... start small la you... see when do you wanna start only... very easy one....
nola, i keep them as a hobby only, never thought of opening shop. i wanna climb my corporate ladder.....

yeah, mainly from taiwan, but now i got stocks from Philippine too biggrin.gif

pm me when you want it ya, but depends on availability or you gotta wait.
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 11 2015, 05:23 PM)
Nice story.
My view on why he would make such a move?

Well, although the warrants appears to be 'valueless', I feel he would still want to subscribe to those warrants because he would want to maintain a certain percentage of shareholding in the company....

that way, he can fend off any possible takeovers....

so the 'wasted millions' just becomes a cost to maintain his status quo....

errr..... ask him if I am correct.  sweat.gif
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fend off possible takeovers? no no no, no one in the company (the major shareholders other than the controlling shareholders can take it private).

no one else, he's the 2nd largest shareholder in the company. who else can take over? literally no one, other than the controlling shareholders to take it private or him triggering the Code and gotta launch a GO to take over.

so you're definitely not right. my direct superior also doesnt know why. haha... let bygone be bygone, it's been 2 years now already.
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 11 2015, 05:31 PM)
oh well....

that was my guess.
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better luck next time! smile.gif
tehoice
post Nov 11 2015, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Nov 11 2015, 05:42 PM)
He didn't consult Ah Boon, that's why ma like that lo...  whistling.gif
Sure kena counselling wan... must know his "poison" and know himself.
To Ah Boon: j/k boss, don't kill me plz.  tongue.gif

Your ex-comp starts with a "T" right?  hmm.gif

Come come the three of us, together with Ah Pinky pindah to SG happy.gif
Dunno why suddenly thought of moving there haha.
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lol... my ex company no one doesn't know.... giant conglomerate... haha... the rest is history...

don't want la, i can't move my business to sg la... lol...

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