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 Traders Kopitiam! V8

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Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 02:44 PM)
Yeah .. if they can maintain the profits, it is estimated that they will make 15 cents per share.

At current price of RM 1.20, that's a reasonable PE 8...

But like gloves, good margin in particle board, will create more competition?  tongue.gif

Anyway looks interesting..  nod.gif
*
Macam fishing only....

Hevea products two segments...
RTA (ready to assemble) and particleboards...

a few years back, for 2012
RTA profits = 11.1 million
Particleboards profits = 1.9 million.

particleboards profits were shit then..... laugh.gif

last year
RTA profits = 19.2 million
Particleboards profits = 12.1 million.... see the potential?


this year.. 2quarters only...
RTA profits so far = 12.3 million
Particleboards profits = 18.5 million.... the profits from particleboards has clearly put Hevea profits up a couple of notches.
It no longer rely on RTA business to boost profits (having said that, as per half year, RTA profits should show excellent growth)


this is where, if I were interested, I were search info on global particleboards market....
ie... I need to know what kind of business economics I am looking at.

In May 2014 (last year... a bit stale news but the focus was 2017)

http://www.fdmcdigital.com/Global_particle...om_by_2017.html

other recent news on Hevea: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...tion/?style=biz


yeah, I understand your 15 sen eps...
but I do think it's a bit.... on the low side.

why ?
cos last quarter result was for the period ending June 2015.
with Hevea doing sales mainly in USD...
and end June, USD was trading around 3.77...
USD now is around 4.27.....
so based on 'flat' sales, the USD factor will surely boost up Hevea's profits by ...... ?

Oh yeah... Hevea share price have jump up a lot..... a few bagger already.... tongue.gif

Yes, but I do not think that is how to look at a share....

Previously... Hevea's share price was unexciting.... it carried debts.... profits weren't too booming..... and it was the DREADED furniture stock...
yeah..... all furniture business 'is said to come from Sungai Buloh'....
and they all tend to burn down one...
LOL!

Having said that...
yes.... it wasn't a stock to really look at...
remember how I even said it pale in comparisons with Homer?

but now...
it has changed...
the good cash flow (as noted by you)....
is turning this stock nicely....

profits are booming....
and it has a massive tax incentives that helps a lot.....
and what hevea is doing by starting to give more dividend helps......
I really have to say...
it's a different stock already......

and also....
it's doing the right things as a stock.
Holding stock conference call with analysts helps...
it put the stocks into the radar...
so much more info ( this is where it is now much better than Homer)

Will good business profits attract competition?
Yeah... sure will one.
isn't it the same, worldwide?




ps: don't buy laaaaa....

LOL!




Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Sep 21 2015, 05:42 PM)
no doubt condom is good, made of rubber also....... hahaha..... but both are used differently mah....
why ar? the demand for such gloves will only be on the rise, the people are more and more health/safety conscious which makes the demand higher and with the USD conversion, these companies are able to make extraordinary profits.....
*
my meaning is....

a few years ago...
in fact, to be more chin...
I was not positive on gloves....
esp on stocks like Top Glove....

now...
I think companies like Top Glove should be making much better profits....
rubber price low...
plus they sell in USD....

icon_rolleyes.gif
gark
post Sep 21 2015, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 21 2015, 05:48 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

ps: don't buy laaaaa....

LOL!
*
Lol reverse psychology ah... anyway dig further it looks good as long as they can maintain sales, waiting for suitable entry now. laugh.gif

Factory is not even up to full capacity and almost no capex.. so its pure free cash flow rclxms.gif

How many bagger ah boon made already? brows.gif

Last Q result was based on average USD of 3.65

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 21 2015, 06:00 PM
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 05:58 PM)
Lol reverse psychology ah... anyway dig further it looks good as long as they can maintain sales, waiting for suitable entry now.  laugh.gif

Factory is not even up to full capacity and almost no capex.. so its pure free cash flow rclxms.gif

How many bagger ah boon made already?  brows.gif

Last Q result was based on average USD of 3.65
*
Where got reverse psychology?

This called Tai Chi...... flex.gif flex.gif

laugh.gif



So you think can double?
Boon3
post Sep 21 2015, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 21 2015, 05:53 PM)
my meaning is....

a few years ago...
in fact, to be more chin...
I was not positive on gloves....
esp on stocks like Top Glove....

now...
I think companies like Top Glove should be making much better profits....
rubber price low...
plus they sell in USD....

icon_rolleyes.gif
*
tehoice

See this screenshot.

user posted image

See and compare the most recent reported quarter (which was boosted by strong USD) (top line) with other quarters.
( see the previous few quatrters? so many down trending quarter profits)

With the USD trading much higher, Top Glove should report earnings more than 11 sen eps.

my 3 sen laaaa icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Sep 21 2015, 07:18 PM
cooldownguy86
post Sep 21 2015, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 21 2015, 07:18 PM)
tehoice

See this screenshot.

user posted image

See and compare the most recent reported quarter (which was boosted by strong USD) (top line) with other quarters.
( see the previous few quatrters? so many down trending quarter profits)

With the USD trading much higher, Top Glove should report earnings more than 11 sen eps.

my 3 sen laaaa  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
management expects 2.5b revenue this year (so abt 11.7 cents per Q) but i think 13.5 cents per Q (11.7 * 1.15) should be reasonable given the favourable forex. Fair value should be 13.5 * 4 * PE 18 = RM 9.70. still got upside but not alot of bags la haha. if got bonus issue then lagi syiok. i was hoping to buy at SMA50 (RM6.90), but since next Q results will be out in second week of Oct, i think no chance to kutip that low.

This post has been edited by cooldownguy86: Sep 21 2015, 11:46 PM
cooldownguy86
post Sep 21 2015, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 05:58 PM)
Lol reverse psychology ah... anyway dig further it looks good as long as they can maintain sales, waiting for suitable entry now.  laugh.gif

Factory is not even up to full capacity and almost no capex.. so its pure free cash flow rclxms.gif

How many bagger ah boon made already?  brows.gif

Last Q result was based on average USD of 3.65
*
if price drop go back to SMA20/30 (RM1.02-1.08) then cantik liao. kasi masuk traktor
Boon3
post Sep 22 2015, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 21 2015, 11:37 PM)
management expects 2.5b revenue this year (so abt 11.7 cents per Q) but i think 13.5 cents per Q (11.7 * 1.15) should be reasonable given the favourable forex. Fair value should be 13.5 * 4 * PE 18 = RM 9.70. still got upside but not alot of bags la haha. if got bonus issue then lagi syiok. i was hoping to buy at  SMA50 (RM6.90), but since next Q results will be out in second week of Oct, i think no chance to kutip that low.
*
Wow! A fan!

Err....I don't use any SMA.
I find it risky....


Boon3
post Sep 22 2015, 12:18 AM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 21 2015, 11:42 PM)
if price drop go back to SMA20/30 (RM1.02-1.08) then cantik liao. kasi masuk traktor
*
laugh.gif

Bus can carry lots and lots of stuff....
Tractor???? rolleyes.gif


infernoaswen
post Sep 22 2015, 12:58 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2015, 11:44 AM)
Winners and losers of USD.. a guide of those who loves USD..  brows.gif
[attachmentid=4973746]

[attachmentid=4973750]

[attachmentid=4973756]

Ok, now discuss!  tongue.gif
*
Inari mana hmm.gif
gark
post Sep 22 2015, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 21 2015, 07:06 PM)
Where got reverse psychology?

This called Tai Chi......  flex.gif  flex.gif

laugh.gif
So you think can double?
*
Emm.. if they can grow profits then they might.

But then hor.. as USD goes up, they might lose some sales as things get expensive, consumer .. err consume less. sweat.gif

I read up their major export market is Japan and China, although the items are priced in USD, they are sold locally in CNY and JPY, which has also has some impact.

Conservatively I expect EPS 15-20, FV 1.50. On the bright side, they will pay back all thier loan by FY16, which means DY will expected to be up. wink.gif
gark
post Sep 22 2015, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 21 2015, 02:59 PM)
Fokus Lambo? blush.gif
*
Only 1 good Q .. hmm.gif
Boon3
post Sep 22 2015, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 22 2015, 09:21 AM)
Emm.. if they can grow profits then they might.

But then hor.. as USD goes up, they might lose some sales as things get expensive, consumer .. err consume less.  sweat.gif

I read up their major export market is Japan and China, although the items are priced in USD, they are sold locally in CNY and JPY, which has also has some impact.

Conservatively I expect EPS 15-20, FV 1.50. On the bright side, they will pay back all thier loan by FY16, which means DY will expected to be up.  wink.gif
*
The bigger factor is the USD factor.
Again, I do not rate US at all.

However, the weakness of the ringgit is the problem....

as long as the current situations prolongs...
the USD vs RM isn't going to get any weaker anytime soon...

hence, the USD 'strength' should continue to be a major booster for exporting companies.........



johnnyzai89
post Sep 22 2015, 04:31 PM

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waaa focus lumbarrrr
SUSPink Spider
post Sep 22 2015, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(johnnyzai89 @ Sep 22 2015, 04:31 PM)
waaa focus lumbarrrr
*
gark! tongue.gif
gark
post Sep 22 2015, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Sep 22 2015, 04:32 PM)
gark! tongue.gif
*
Eh? tongue.gif

Wat happen? laugh.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Sep 22 2015, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 22 2015, 04:38 PM)
Eh?  tongue.gif

Wat happen?  laugh.gif
*
I dunno, even though I rekomen Fokus Lambo but I belum sempat beli tongue.gif
cooldownguy86
post Sep 22 2015, 07:44 PM

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abg boon abg gark. just wondering what is your current cash ratio and is there a min ratio that u practice?
gark
post Sep 22 2015, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(cooldownguy86 @ Sep 22 2015, 07:44 PM)
abg boon abg gark. just wondering what is your current cash ratio and is there a min ratio that u practice?
*
Mine is still around 70%. Never seem to be able to invest it all... rclxub.gif

I guess i am like TTB... still waiting for the super cheap stocks.. which never comes cry.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Sep 22 2015, 09:56 PM
cooldownguy86
post Sep 22 2015, 10:18 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 22 2015, 09:54 PM)
Mine is still around 70%.  Never seem to be able to invest it all...  rclxub.gif

I guess i am like TTB... still waiting for the super cheap stocks.. which never comes  cry.gif
*
wah so conservative ah. mine 50% also I think conservative liao. but agree not many good and cheap stock in klse now

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