OK, I have a stout shield - this should give me 40%chance of blocking 30damage. If I have two shields is it 80%? The same thing with basher - is the 15%chance to stun added or somehow multiplied?

no.. it does not work this way... it does not double up.. its just makes the probability increase.. by the meaning.. if somehow the 1st basher makes the bash.. and the 2nd basher makes the bash at the same time.. oni 1 bash will appear..

so it does not really double ur chances.. in other words not multiplied.. it just like creating another probability that it might have a chance activate..

this goes same for PA who buy burize.. if PA's ulti somehow activates.. and the burize crit activates, it will take the larger damage..

thats how it works..hope this help clarify ur thoughts

cheers.. oh.. do correct me if i am wrong though..

well...let me explain

1 x basher = 100% - 15% chance can't be stun
2 x basher = 100% - (85%/15%) chance can't be stun
3 x basher = 100% - [(85%/15%)/15%] chance can't be stun

1 x stout shield = 100% - 40% chance fail to block 30 damage
2 x stout shield = 100% - (60%/40%) chance to fail block 30 damage
3 x stout shield = 100% - [(60%/40%)/40%] chance fail to block 30 damage

u all get wat i means ?....correct me if wrong , cos it teached by my clans leader @@

This post has been edited by 3536837: Oct 29 2006, 04:41 PM

hm... not sure if I understand :-] So you think it can be this way:
2stout shields = 0,4 + 0,4 - 0,4*0,4 = 0,64 (64% of -30 damage)
2bashers = 0,15 + 0,15 - 0,15*0,15 = 0,2775 (27,75% chance to stun)
I am not sure if these formulas are right, I have found them somewhere when searching for probability adding...

I'm not very sure bout the way they count, but urs is wrong. According to your source, with 2 bashers, the chance of bashing is 85% of 15%. That is actually lower than 1 basher, 100% of 15% which is 15%. So that's basically wrong.

Anyway if i'm not wrong the calculation is posted in the DotA forum.

I would search for it, but the search function mysteriously does not work for my account there! I wrote to admin but he didn't help
Yes it was probably wrong. Here is a corrected version
2bashers: 0,15+(1-0,15)*0,15 = 0,2775 (27,75%)
2stout shields: 0,40+(1-0,40)*0,40 = 0,64 (64%)

OMG the results are the same as before! So I think it must be right...
the second item adds it's value lowered by the percentage of the first one (actually itself)...

So 3536837, it is a little different then you say (+1basher

This post has been edited by LoWang: Oct 29 2006, 07:40 AM

I'll explain it a bit clearer.
Each basher has a 15% chance to bash (assuming melee).
p=0.15

If you have 2 bashers, each of them has a 0.15 chance to bash, independant of each other. You have 4 possible outcomes.

First basher bash, second doesn't.
First basher bash, second bash as well
First basher doesn't bash, second bashes.
First basher doesn't bash, second doesn't as well.

Now let's name them equation 1 to 4, according from top to bottom. The chances of each event happening...

1)0.15*0.85
2)0.15*0.15
3)0.85*0.15
4)0.85*0.85

Now we want to calculate what is the chance of bashing. The criteria is and/or, as long as one bash activates (doesn't matter if both activates at the same time as well), it is considered a 'bash'.

So therefore, we take 1 + 2 + 3, in other words

0.15*0.85 + 0.15*0.15 + 0.85*0.15=0.2775 i.e 27.75% chance (alternatively you can just take 1 - * figure obtained from 4, 0.85*0.85 *)

Hahah! very good explanation! So that's what Specialist Math does to a student!

no, it takes the lower damage.

No to that either. It takes the LAST crit to be instilled. Naturally, that would mean the Burize, UNLESS somehow you get the Burize first, THEN up the ultimate for the very first time.

High school of DotA - three stout shields and three bashers!

We made a really big research about this and we found a formula for this situation:
3a-3a^2+a^3
so three stout shields would be:
3*0,4-3*0,4^2+a^3 =
1,2 - 0,48 + 0,064 = 0,784 = 78,4% chance to block 30 damage

three bashers:
3*0,15-3*0,15^2+0,15^3 =
0,45 - 0,1575 + 0,003375 = 0,295875 = 29,6% to stun

in reference to this and so many other thread, its gotten to me to lol.

http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=362326

http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=359445

http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=348142

PA with crystlais will reduce the chance of his ultimate to come out

because it works like bash thing where

his ulti crit , crystalis doesnt crit ( u get utli crit )
his ulti doesnt cirt, crystlais doesnt crit ( no crits )
ulit doesnt crit , cryustalis crit (u get crystalis crit )
ulti crits , crystlais ( in basher case u would get double bash efffect but in critical case u would see 2 critical pop up and stacking each other BUT they will only take the lower critical thus overwrite ur ulti )

so u see everytime both crits come out the crytalis critical will deal dmg but no damage from ulti crits

This post has been edited by Flizzardo: Nov 4 2006, 02:29 AM

FOund it on the other thread,thx treepex.

I have merged up those useful post from the other topic tat ubhm has posted.

You may continue the mathcraft disccussion here

this 1 gives huge headache to see.... better not think of it when playing

wow nice, i didnt know about the phantom lancer ulti+butterfly doesnt stack together as well, got anymore to share ?

6 basher on timestop....with his on bash..apa macam

total how many %

u kira for me lor...

phantom lancer? i thought he meant phantom assassin?

no need kira so much la if 6 basher almost can say every hit bash

how abt this my count :
correct if am wrong

Formula:
P(X=r)=nCr P^r Q^n-r
if u wanna count it with DPS n your IAS
n=how much u hit
r=the chance u bash
example naix hav IAS 2hit/second
u wan bash your enemy for 100% rate=2C2 0.15^2 0.85^0 = 0.0225=2.25%
in a second , if u wan 100% bash your enemy rate = 2.25% only
tat y sladar or faceless can gain high bash rate with basher
if they hav 2 basher = 45.8125%
exapmle they hav IAS 2hit/s
bash your enemy for 100% rate in second = 0.2098=20.98%
in a second 2hit u can bash enemy for 20.98%
if u gain the 1st bash
u hav 1.5second to gain next bash
if u count the enmey stunned time while u r attacking it can be very high

Global :
P=0.15 Q=0.85

1s basher
0.15=15%
the second basher
0.85X0.15=0.1285
total=0.2775-27.75%

This post has been edited by Irishcoffee: Nov 8 2006, 02:23 AM

urgh... this math things make me dizzy
y would someone wanna calculate dota?
juz play and have fun

Go to this Dota Official Website Forum
http://forums.dota-allstars.com/index.php?showtopic=34345

this really does look like what i've studied in form 6 Maths T - Probability

phd in dota mathematics? hahaha

It is what I'm studying now... lol...
Thanks for the formula.

No need to calculate. Just get 2 basher, theads and midas or hyperstone. The % bash will give in perhit so the faster you are the greater % bash can struck. Think like this.

In 1 seconds

1 hit is 85% + 15% bash
1 hit is 85% + 15% non-bash
1 hit is 85% + 15% bash
1 hit is 85% + 15% non-bash

Faster you are the chart run like this in 0.1 sec
So you get perma-stun.