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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V149, Higher interest rate coming soon?

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SKY 1809
post Jul 24 2015, 11:06 AM

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Not bad 6211.........no promise that it could be another Mieco...
SKY 1809
post Aug 8 2015, 11:03 AM

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Kinda a good second opinion where investors may want to know more :-

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 5, 2015:

Amid the gloom of a weaker ringgit clouding how many perceive the Malaysian economy is doing, a ray of sunshine has emerged with the nation’s foreign debt being reduced significantly in US dollar terms.

As much of Malaysia’s foreign debt – both government and corporate sector – is ringgit denominated, outflow of funds in US dollar terms has fallen drastically over the past year as the ringgit value against the greenback has dropped to RM3.85 now from around RM3.20 last September – or about 17% less.

Latest Bank Negara Malaysia figures show that as at March 31 this year, slightly more than 90% of the government’s foreign debt was in ringgit at RM160.24 billion – with US dollar denominated debt at RM12.47 billion then and yen debt at RM4.76 billion.

With short term debt of RM2.96 billion due, significant savings in foreign exchange outflow can already be realised with the weaker ringgit – a fact that was confirmed by foreign exchange strategist Dr Suresh Ramanathan.

The same applies for corporate-issued bonds in ringgit denominations, he added.

As such, Malaysia is in no danger of slipping into economic turmoil due to foreign debt as the ringgit value weakens against the US dollar – unlike the situation back in 1997 during the Asian financial crisis when most government and corporate debts were in US dollars, yen and euro.

This positive economic outlook is largely due to the sustained push by Malaysia to develop the Islamic financing market with sukuk largely denominated in ringgit, resulting in a natural hedge against currency volatility.

And because foreign buyers of Malaysian debt issues – bonds, sukuk and other instruments largely denominated in ringgit – stand to lose out a lot should they cash out now, Suresh said dumping by foreign investors, which many fear will occur, is highly unlikely.

“Most of them will hold on to the debt instruments because it is too high a loss in US dollar terms if they exit now. Because they are long term investors, most will just hold on to the debt until maturity in the hope that the ringgit value will rise again in coming years.”

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 8 2015, 11:14 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 8 2015, 11:12 AM

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I see no hurry to sell off the US $ exporters listed in Bursa in view of lower ringgit value .




SKY 1809
post Aug 9 2015, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(kuluuluk @ Aug 9 2015, 01:41 PM)
wink.gif Selling off USD cash on hand  for exporters listed in Brusa tongue.gif
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Kinda true....I was told by a currency trader that he is positioning himself to buy some rm........for its strong fundamentals

Remember... too strong a currency like US may jeopardize US economy in certain ways.....also US may depend on her exports to China and Asia as well...

Strong Japanese currency was one of the factors that sank Japanese economy for a long time.....

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 9 2015, 04:03 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 9 2015, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(duckaton @ Aug 9 2015, 05:55 PM)
ringgit seems to be in proportionate to oil price.
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That is the perception I believe ......Oil price did drop to about US $ 20 plus in year 2008/2009 or so..but our ringgit did not fall that much...but US $ fell more ...

Moreover at that time we did not have GST to cushion our budgets ...and still had petrol subsidy then.....

GST collection could be surprising high ...some say....

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 9 2015, 06:13 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 9 2015, 07:26 PM

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WARREN’S INSTRUCTIONS ON WHAT YOU SHOULD AVOID

Macroeconomic forecasts

Charts

Predicting tops and bottoms

Impatience

Going along with the crowd

Gambling and derivatives

Equations with Greek letters in them

MORE THINGS TO AVOID

Being too ambitious

Diversifying to mediocrity

Being an active trader

Ignoring errors

Glamorous companies you don’t understand

New issue market

Worrying if prices fall

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 9 2015, 07:27 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 10 2015, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(valan @ Aug 10 2015, 12:42 PM)
just top up frontkn @ 0.23 biggrin.gif
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Good choice ......

Rm is 3.965.........depreciating fast .

At least Frontken is a US currency earner and holds Taiwan assets...

Cash is King but fast depreciating King ....... hmm.gif



This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 10 2015, 01:01 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 10 2015, 01:07 PM

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Maybank IB has overweight calls on construction stocks, which are expected to benefit from the continued investment in infrastructure projects, as well as glove producers and technology stocks which will benefit from the strengthening of the US dollar.

“There is still a lot of liquidity boosting the market, and this money has to look for some returns. Overall, investors are cautious; volume is down a lot as they are not taking large positions. But they still see a silver lining in the glove, furniture, chipboard, timber and selective semiconductor companies that derive their revenue in US dollars and pay lower commodity prices for their inputs,” said a senior analyst.

Areca Capital is banking on small to mid-caps with fundamental backing and highlighting some blue chips as it considers index-linked stocks to be oversold. It favours construction, oil and gas, telcos, electronic and electrical as well as technology stocks.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 10 2015, 01:08 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 10 2015, 01:41 PM

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Holding to Cash is not a necessary a good choice or it could be a lai sai choice too......nothing is said to be safe these days ...

Cash/currency once depreciated may take many years to appreciate back...

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 10 2015, 01:44 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 10 2015, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(sunshine-kc @ Aug 10 2015, 04:20 PM)
"Maybank IB has overweight calls on construction stocks, which are expected to benefit from the continued investment in infrastructure projects, as well as glove producers and technology stocks which will benefit from the strengthening of the US dollar. "

......................................................

The Govn is already in deep Shit.. Revenue is DROPPING FAST !!!

Oil down to Us45/= from a projected US60/-. Palm Oil down to ~Rm2100/tonne. Rubber (Latex) down to ~ Rm 5.60/kg.

Plus :- Indonesia and Thailand is reducing their currency   ...    So that their Palm Oil and Rubber becomes Cheaper than Malaysia.

The Main Export Earners(Revenue) for Malaysia is now in Deep Shit ..... And NO bright forcast in the next 2 - 4 years !!!

.....................................................

Construction projects by Govn being pushed out before the next election at 2017( More DONATIONS being made )  ?

Likely ...But where is the money coming from ?

Print more Ringgti ...... So RM vs US$ hitting rm4/- is likely.

Someone should ask these construction companies having current projects about PAYMENT from Govn. Delayed ? Payment in Govn Bonds ? Payment by other assets ?

.....................................................
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I doubt u are an investor so there is no point for me to argue too much .........with an Economist ( I presumed u are ) who can talk 24/7 days a week.........

Same with the US economists who talked so much when US rating dropped and US Budget problems.........way back in Year 2013/2014..

US is having Budget Deficits ..so what ? Their markets still up from Year 2013........Year 2014

If China wants to back up some infra structure projects if given a chance .....like the Penang Bridge during the recession ..it still works . We can invest ..

Whether printing more money or not. is a sin ......investors see diff from economists ...so long it works in their favours ..they can invest ..

U say rm is going to hit rm 4..ya likely .......but u think it would be cheaper for Malaysians to live their daily life tomorrow..and or next week next month ..? What about our Exporters .in Gloves and semi conducts .in what ways they suffer due to low rm ?


BTW u left out the power of GST collection ..maybe a sin to u too....but I am a investor ...not like u.

Do not forget this is an investment forum ..not political forum u may think ...

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 10 2015, 07:18 PM
SKY 1809
post Aug 11 2015, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(backspace66 @ Aug 11 2015, 10:13 AM)
As I say no point for US $ to go up too high...Asia declares export wars.......with lower currency rates
SKY 1809
post Aug 11 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(kuluuluk @ Aug 11 2015, 11:00 AM)
Yup totally agree on ASIA part, but I'm having doubts about MYR as Iran Oil is going to flood the market officially and some factories sales that i know of dive greatly.  hmm.gif
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荣众科技7月营收0.81亿元年增24.52% 1— 7月达5.08亿元 Ares Green Technology Corporation income is up 24.52% for July.. and up 20% for the accumulative 7 months Jan to July 2015


http://www.cnyes.com.cn/presh/finreport3/3414.html

http://www.cnyes.com.cn/presh/bulletin/3414.html

Note : Frontken control >57.70% Ares Green Technology Corporation (荣众科技)>>>TSMC( 台積電 )Is The Biggest businesses client of Ares Green Technology Corporation )

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 11 2015, 11:33 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 12 2015, 09:17 AM

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China could also be firing a warning shot that it is finally ready to start selling US Treasury bills, which make up a big chunk of its external reserves.
With its economy showing signs of slowing down and stock markets plunging, China may be ready to shift its funds away from US debt to pump money into its economy.
SKY 1809
post Aug 12 2015, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(ProGamerCF @ Aug 12 2015, 11:15 AM)
as long as it is not crash  whistling.gif  whistling.gif .. those fundamental picks by sifu is still staying strong + is getting cheaper too smile.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
plus sifu already hinting with some quotes..
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Ya U are right..

kinda worldwide problem now........not just us...

Holding cash is also depreciating ........

Ya holding on to those Those fundamental stocks .Cash rich ...exports ......then u worry less......temporary paper loss

Those days...people advising u to switch off the monitor ..u get less depressing......

Too much money floating in the world somehow needed to be invested somewhere ..........

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 12 2015, 11:23 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 12 2015, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(backspace66 @ Aug 12 2015, 11:22 AM)
0128, getting cheaper day by day, lesson for people who catch the knife so early in the game
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I believe it is due to short selling activities......but u can buy base on the fundamentals ........

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 12 2015, 11:26 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 12 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(kancs3118 @ Aug 12 2015, 11:22 AM)
Brother Sky1809, can help to recommend good solid fundamental counters ? thanks bro....
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Hard to advise panic investors that needed to be comforted from time to time....

亂市投資之道
2015-07-26 19:03



勿無頭蒼蠅隨興投資

"他對投機者的第一個建議是:“要有自己的看法”。有了看法才有方向,投資也才能循序漸進"


涉獵廣泛
從新聞找秘密

“投機家懂得在新聞的字裡行間讀出秘密”。

Matt Frankel:切忌買入初衷

"這次學到的教訓就是,股票價格本來就起起落落,不應該根據股價而做出買進或賣出的決定,反而應該專注於一家好公司的股價是否在合理的價位,如果屬於合理範疇,就不要受到一時的股價飆升,而認為漲勢已接近尾聲。"

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 12 2015, 11:31 AM
SKY 1809
post Aug 12 2015, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(kuluuluk @ Aug 12 2015, 04:40 PM)
Well like you said, there's opportunity in every turn. Paper lost is better compare to actual depreciating lost.

Conversion of USD to MYR  thumbup.gif
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Ya like those days people just dumped out unlimited Tambun at 50sen....later yours became 2.50rm.....
SKY 1809
post Aug 13 2015, 10:36 AM

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0128 is actually privatizing Ares Green, right ? ...which mean the share of its profit could jump from the original of 60% to about 100% depending on whether the minority wanted to sell to them or not.

FRONTKEN CORPORATION BERHAD (“FCB”) - WITHDRAWAL OF ARES GREEN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION FROM THE TAIWAN GRETAI SECURITIES MARKET (“PROPOSED WITHDRAWAL”)

Page 2/3
3. INFORMATION ON AGTC AGTC was organised under the Company Law in Taiwan on 13 January 1999 and was admitted to the GreTai Securities Market as an emerging stock on 30 December 2004. The present authorised share capital of AGTC is NT$420,000,000 comprising 42,000,000 ordinary shares of NT$10 each, of which NT$330,750,000 comprising 33,075,000 ordinary shares of NT$10 each have been issued and fully paid-up. AGTC is principally involved in the provision of surface treatment and advanced precision cleaning for the TFT-LCD (Thin Film Transistor-Liquid Crystal Display) and semiconductor industries.

4. FINANCIAL EFFECTS There will be no significant financial impact to FCB arising from the Proposed Withdrawal.

5. POTENTIAL FINANCIAL IMPACTS TO AGTC AGTC’s preceding two financial years consolidated revenue and EPS were NTD640,365,000 and NTD1.71, NTD857,227,000 and NTD2.91 respectively. The AGTC’s profitability and financial position are on an uptrend and there is no short-term need to raise funds from the capital market, therefore, the Board of AGTC is of the view that the potential financial impact arising from the motion is minimum. AGTC will continue to focus in business development, enhancing its business model and organization structure and to protect the shareholders’ interest via corporate governance.

SKY 1809
post Aug 13 2015, 11:09 AM

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Next step......major shareholder could collect more of 0128 from the open market.......while it is cheap
SKY 1809
post Aug 13 2015, 11:44 AM

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QUOTE(djhenry91 @ Aug 13 2015, 11:24 AM)
hmm...Frontkn just suspend their plan to listing their subsidize company to taiwan exchange
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0128 now comes directly under German corporate...they have the financial muscles to invest .

Moreover 0128 have cash in hand of 70m cash.....while its Ares Green has 70m rm market cap...so still able to buy the remaining 40% not owned by cash ......

Importantly.....The AGTC’s profitability and financial position are on an uptrend

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Aug 13 2015, 11:45 AM

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