The implications of Jokowi's global maritime axis
QUOTE
With respect to the broader Asia Pacific, an assertive Indonesia could pave the way for a clash with China, especially on Beijing’s policies in the South China Sea. The Indonesian Armed Forces, for example, have made strident tones about the sovereignty of the Natuna Islands, which appear to fall within China’s nine-dash line, and would like to see a more significant defense presence there. Might an emphasis on maritime power and security embolden the Indonesian military to take provocative actions in defense of the Natunas or even against Chinese fishing vessels that travel through Indonesian waters? It’s possible down the line, though for now, Indonesia will likely underplay any differences with Beijing, as it still looks to China as a source of foreign direct investment to upgrade its decaying infrastructure and jump-start economic development in the eastern part of the country.
QUOTE
The downside, of course, is that a beefed-up Indonesian Navy and its new Coast Guard could threaten regional stability. While the foreign policy of the previous administration of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was often criticized as toothless and lacking coherence and direction, with its oft-quoted maxim of “a thousand friends, zero enemy,” President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s foreign policy seems, so far, to be overly nationalistic. This could trigger alarm bells and handwringing in Southeast Asian capitals about whether the global maritime axis signals a shift toward a more confrontational and aggressive foreign policy posture.
QUOTE
How others think and respond to the policy does matter, and knowing these things is important. Such information would ensure that Jakarta isn’t caught off guard by negative responses or countermeasures, or that it’s not used and abused by outsiders. Lastly, it would help Joko administration officials to figure out how to tailor the global maritime axis to extant regional and international conditions.
Brad Nelson is president and cofounder of the Center for World Conflict and Peace, a US-based research organization
Yohanes Sulaiman is a lecturer at the Indonesia Defense University
More reading -
https://www.stratfor.com/the-hub/implicatio...l-maritime-axisThis post has been edited by BorneoAlliance: Apr 11 2015, 09:01 AM