Please don't follow me..

I am taking a high risk bet.. it might end up going to holland..

IF oil stay at low for longer period there are CHANCES that several OnG counters MIGHT default on thier loan, hence will close shop rendering your investment a grand total of $0.00

Sometimes, sometimes... market can act irrational for a long time.. longer than your holding power..

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 18 2015, 10:25 AM

Why not? Have you seen the financials?

Cash RM 1.83 billion

Short term loan RM 5.3 billion
Long term loan RM 5.3 Billion

Total loan 10.6 billion

Interest rate per year : 477 million p.a

IF they are in a money losing position, at most they can service their loan up to 1-1.5 years only..

Haha buying down is actually similar to buying up.. just the other way.

SKPet IF oil stays at $40 is currently valued at RM 1,90 only.. slightly above NTA



This post has been edited by gark: Mar 18 2015, 10:37 AM

I am neutral, just presenting ALL the PRO and CONS ...

So everyone have a better picture and know the risk they are taking and potential gains they might get.

Oh BTW.. SKPet net debt to equity is already > 100%



There are several OnG outfit which is even more prone to default.. but I won't name them here.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 18 2015, 10:41 AM

Haha you know how much they paid for the 30k bpd? RM 2.6 billion....

Hope they not gonna impair the purchase price by 50% ..

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 18 2015, 10:48 AM

Depend on future growth.. if growth is good why not?

If growth is poor then can chuck into bin..

Got a lot of companies do that...

http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Report-Analys...KLSE-Stock.aspx

Some of the counters there every Q earnings up.. have you even read em?

Anyway look at the bigger picture.

Sudah jual..

So can pharmaniaga and ccmbio.. and cheap foreign manufacturers such as ranbaxy.. once a drug is off patent, it's a free for all.

Coastal PRIMARY builds vessels for OnG clients.. which includes AHTS, PSV, dive boat, crew boat and other support vessel of mostly smaller sizes. Coastal currently have about RM 1 billion of UNSOLD but completed vessels stock for OnG.

Recently it has ventured into drilling rig business.. although it has signed a recent sales contract, it's second rig is coming soon with no contract. I am not sure what class of rig is coastal holding (Cause i am lazy to check ), but it is worthwhile to find out if you want to invest. In 2015 it is expected that a total of 56 new rigs will enter the market, with around 26 is speculative rig (rig built without contract, which will FIGHT for work)

Drilling rigs day rates have fallen about 15%-25% recently.. this was guided by UMWOG conference (UMWOG have the most number of drilling rigs in SEA) The highest demand rigs is those rated > 300 ft, others rated lower than 300 ft have seen steady decline of usage.

It can be a good turn around stock once drilling and exploration activity picks up.. but when will be anyone's guess.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 19 2015, 10:19 AM

You got to read between the lines... don't just swallow everything they put at you excerpt from UMWOG presentation by Rohaizid Darus



Points to ponder..

1. Lets consider the max to lowest rates, which represents the steepest decline (stress test to see how bad things are). Rates fell from 165K to 135K for SEA, which is net reduction of 30K. 30K/165K = 18.1%. For UMWOG they expect rates for their charter to be slightly better at 140K. 25K/165K = 17.8%. No where near the 5%-7% which is reduction since start of 2015.

2. UMWOG conceded that rates in Malaysia is falling even steeper that expected from Vietnam in 2015.

3. Lower utilization rates. Previously rigs have utilization rates of 300 days or more. A reduction of 30-60 days represents additional 10%-20% NON REVENUE days.

4. Combines the lower rates in 2015 vs 2014 PLUS the lower utilization days, you can see where I get my estimate of 15%-25% reduction of total rates income from.

Never trust blind conclusion (UMWOG calculated based on lowest rate 2013 vs highest rate in 2015 AND ignored utilization days ) especially from vested interest company giving the presentations. Always do your homework.



This post has been edited by gark: Mar 20 2015, 10:38 AM

Apa? apa?

I got hot stock tipsy..

stock code XX1X

TSH ...

Ala.. drama queen.. baru naik 1+ % only wor..

Not a bad counter.. quite consistent outperforming.. but the PE ratio.. is too high for my taste.

Go see chart of inari and globetronics.. you will lagi terkejut.

Why dont you go check the expected profit growth rate and the then compare to PE ratio, then only you tell us good or not ?

Nevermind mah.. lets learn together.

PE 200 x..

Buy more.