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 Traders Kopitiam! V7

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gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 16 2015, 12:11 PM)
Big Ann punya directors have been buying and buying and buying...
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lemme check the stock first.. earnings macam tak stable.. hmm.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:13 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 16 2015, 12:12 PM)
Whose?
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Amoi's ...

You got contribute or not last weekend.. tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 16 2015, 12:15 PM)
Take note that 2014 got a big one-off income. To do a fair comparison of margins and growth, I took that out.

But still the %s look tasty...to me biggrin.gif
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Mana your presentation?

I need to check thier plantation profile.. hmm.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(lonelywalker @ Mar 16 2015, 12:19 PM)
If it just accounting move, they din't lost anything in actual ~,~

Palm Oil , yes it is most edible compare to corn,canola and soy. Yet for current production and marketing, I can't figure estimated year to see the result, maybe might longer than OnG.

As now Malaysia company also shift some of their production to Indonesia as land and worker cheaper  brows.gif

Malaysia land getting lesser to cucuk palm oil tree ~,~

Indonesia will become world largest palm oil plantation in the next.
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Accounting move effects P&L.. also if they cannot recover the debt, take long time to recover or forced to take haircut.. that is actual $$$ lost. tongue.gif

Malaysia has EFFECTIVELY run out of space for oil palm except for jungle PEAT land in Sarawak... even in Indonesia they are running out of suitable land in Kalimantan. Next they are already moving to Irian Jaya.. Africa and Central America. Palm oil advantage over soy and corn is that it can be planted on hilly lands. whistling.gif

Same as can be said for soybean, Brazil is also running out of FLAT land, canola production has been falling.. and no new plantings cause again no more FLAT land. laugh.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(lonelywalker @ Mar 16 2015, 12:20 PM)
Don't know, gainer gain, loser lose @,@

Like me I losing alot @,@
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You losing in what share? tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:47 PM

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Ta Ann - Back of hand research.

The Good laugh.gif

1. Sales of log in USD, approx $230 per m3 and have strong demand from India. Sales of plywood is also in USD, approx $500 per m3.
2. Average age of plantation profile is 8 years old and OER yield is decent at 19%. FFB Yield also decent at 19.6 t/ha. Not too high vs peers (High is about 22% OER and 25 tpha) but not too low, (peninsular average 18% OER, 18 tpha)

The bad sad.gif

1. Reduction of quota for Tasmania operation for veneer production (for plywood production).
2. No new plantings for remaining 60,000 ha landbank due to weak CPO price, and cash channels to dividend. IMHO they should continue to expand their profitable plantation segment.
2. Owned by family of Pek Moh...specifically his brother & sister. Political risk.

The Ugly. mad.gif

1. Sales of plywood is still poor and affected by Japanese market downturn.. the segment is expected to LOSE $15 million per year.

Result : To monitor further. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 16 2015, 12:58 PM
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 16 2015, 12:55 PM)
One look...also no want to see more.... tongue.gif
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Hahaha... tongue.gif

Why? Tell us what you see.. that we dont... notworthy.gif

If profits.. past profits is poor and not consistent.. but how about future? tongue.gif

Ah pek KoonYY .. is heavily invested in this counter. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 16 2015, 01:00 PM
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 16 2015, 12:59 PM)
Your this reply already say everything.... tongue.gif
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hmm.gif Look look see see first.. tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Mar 16 2015, 02:21 PM)
Nice analysis. U should be working in an investment bank  rclxms.gif

Any opinion on my portfolio? Anymore upside?  whistling.gif
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Dont know yet.. have not read about your counters.

BJ Auto is good as long as it can sustain the car sales, weaker yen helps too. rclxms.gif
gark
post Mar 16 2015, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Mar 16 2015, 05:45 PM)
No love for sunway berhad?
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Nope. tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Mar 17 2015, 09:22 AM)
Keppel Infra Trust owns NEWater plant, but doesn't own the technology?
It would be great if it can export the technology. The whole world will face water shortage problem in future.
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Too many membrane manufacturers in the world.. so better to own the plants which give recurring income. laugh.gif
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 02:20 PM

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Something to ponder.. something to think about.. got Ah boon's teaching inside.. laugh.gif

QUOTE

What to Do With Losing Stocks in Your Portfolio

I met a gentleman at the Workshop who owns 115+ stocks in his portfolio, most of which are bad businesses – he realizes that – and are deep into losses despite the great run in the stock market over the last one year.

“What should I do with these stocks?” he asked me. And he is not the only one who’s asked me this question in the past. I have met numerous people over the past 2-3 years who have held on to bad businesses and losing stocks in their portfolios, and not knowing what to do with them.

One way people look at such stocks is – “Oh, this XYZ stocks is already in a deep loss. What would I get by selling it anyways?”

Another way is – “I will sell this ABC losing stock only when I get my capital back. I don’t mind holding it for the long run.”

Well, this second thought is what creates a lot of “forced” long term investors – people who stay invested in a bad stock for the long term because they don’t think they have an option to sell it.

Nobody Likes Losing

That’s true! So why do people hang on to losing investments?

Because selling feels even worse.

The pain of a loss is substantially greater than the pleasure from a gain, researchers of investment behaviour have found.

People will go to great lengths to avoid pain. Accordingly, our inclination when facing a financial loss is to convince ourselves that the asset is going to bounce back and we will at least break even.

“It’s only a paper loss,” people would tell themselves. “It’s not a real loss until I sell.”

Anyways, one suggestion I gave to the gentleman I met yesterday was to hold on to businesses he knows are “obviously” good, and sell the ones he knows are “obviously” bad, irrespective of what those stocks have done in the past.

“Your cost price does not matter when you are looking to decide what to do with a stock in your portfolio,” I told him. “What matters is today’s stock price – assuming it’s a good business and you are looking to buy that stock afresh today – and your expected returns from it over the next 10 years.”

If you wouldn’t buy more of a stock today on which you have a loss, sell it. Don’t wait to “get even.” Chances are there are better ways to invest your money.

No well-managed store keeps obsolete goods in inventory; neither should you keep losers in your investment portfolio.

And if you think “How much more can it fall from here on?”, please note that every 90% loss begins with a 10% loss, and then goes to 20%, then 30% and so on. So, when you realize you’ve made a mistake in the matter of stock selection, it’s better to take the loss sooner, not later.

Time and time again, investors take profits by selling their appreciated investments (“Oh, what if I lose my gains!”), but they hold on to stocks that have declined in the hope of a rebound (“I want to get my money back!”).

If you don’t know when it’s time to let go of hopeless stocks, you can, in the worst-case scenario, see the stock sink to the point where it is almost worthless – a permanent loss of capital.

There is no guarantee that a stock will bounce back after a long decline. While it’s important not to underestimate good stocks, it’s equally important to be realistic about investments that are performing badly (because the underlying business is bad).

Recognizing your losers is hard because it’s also an acknowledgment of your mistake. But it’s important to do that sooner than later.

Don’t be afraid to swallow your pride and move on before your losses become even greater.
Full post here.
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2015, 02:23 PM)
sign0014.gif sign0014.gif

where is the no like butang?  mad.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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That 'spam' not for you one. tongue.gif You already cut loss grandmaster level 99..

Yes, selling off a mistake is always hard to do.. hopefully someone will benefit from the 'spam'.. nod.gif
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2015, 02:30 PM)
tongue.gif

so when you want to admit you are investing way too early in SKPet ...... tongue.gif
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Hahahaha.. too early is not equal to make a mistake.. I still have confident on the stock.. tongue.gif

Still looking to buy more. rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 17 2015, 02:33 PM
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2015, 02:38 PM)
laugh.gif

..... yeah.... still too early days ......
so you say you expect this to be a loooooooooooooooooong term....

so from now to say..... another year.... or more.....

what would you expect?

earnings to go down..... yes?

(SKPet announces earnings this month, ya? )

if yes how bad do you expect earnings to go down?

would you expect losses?

how many quarters of poor earnings?

2? 3? 4? or more?

when SKPet announces these poor earnings.....
would stock be hit?

or you think the stock at most retest recent lows cos whatever bad earnings has all been priced in?
tongue.gif
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If you ask me, SKPet will announce losses this Q.. because likely they will write off debts especially for Petrolbras. Also they might take impairment for the high price they paid for the Vietnam marginal fields.

I hope they really do write off those potential bad debts, and take impairment for the fields, so SKPet can start the year with a clean slate forward like what Armada did. Rather than write off sikit-sikit every Q.. doh.gif

Also less earning (~50%-70% less EPS than last year) forward obviously from less job on hand and less revenue from oil sales. But unless more impairment and more write downs, they will still earn money from current order book which can last them up to 2 years.

I Think IF SKpet announce BAD earnings on 24th March, the stock will get hit (Might be a good time to buy laugh.gif). For the less income forward (until oil recovery) it is more or less priced in already. tongue.gif

If I paint such a bad picture and why I still buy? Donno.. gut feeling and a BET that oil price recover within a year. laugh.gif

I might be wrong, I am just a crazy investor.. don't follow me or you may earn free trip to holland. icon_idea.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 17 2015, 02:51 PM
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2015, 02:51 PM)
LOL!!!

You crazy meeeh? meh?

so after the losses ..... and lesser future earnings....

what's your expectations?

how much ROUGHLY do you expect them to earn?

250 m per Q?
200 m per Q?
150 m per Q?
*
Coming Q IF they write off, easily NEGATIVE 200-300m..

After that..

80-120 m per Q .. tongue.gif for the first 4 Q

EVEN LESS after that IF price of oil continue stays low..

Then have to pray to god, oil goes back up.... laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2015, 03:02 PM)
LOL!
I would say we need to see at least 3 or 4 quarters of earnings....

and oil.... lol.... yeah, I do think it will go back up..... eventually.... when I no no..... LOL!
..... see this is why I say.... too early.
this isn't much positive catalyst to look out for......
except.... pray that those buggers push the oil price back up.
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Hmm I do admit that I did not for see oil drop to ~$40 .. i was expecting it to hover around $50-$55 ...

Guess that was the wrong bet...

In before oil later drops to ~$30 .. laugh.gif laugh.gif

sweat.gif


gark
post Mar 17 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(Lowyaa @ Mar 17 2015, 03:14 PM)
Anyone using bursa station? What advantages do you get? Can know news like companies' quarter results before it is officially announced to public?
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Hahaha nanti masuk lokap for insider trading.. laugh.gif laugh.gif
gark
post Mar 17 2015, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(Lowyaa @ Mar 17 2015, 04:44 PM)
But you see superlon rose 17% next day after report released. And today magni also boom from previous day quarter report.

Now everyone knows that good quarter results will boom the share next day, just that even though i put order at premium buy price before market opening, still cant get the share. So just tengok the share rose only...
*
So desperate to get the share?

Learn how to jump queue during the pre-opening session lar...

Apa trader ini don't know such basic trick..? tongue.gif
gark
post Mar 18 2015, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2015, 06:44 PM)
See....if I was in your shoes...
I would gamble based on the facts I (you) know....

However....right now....the price of oil .....
is the focus.....
and right now....
the price of oil is not based on fundamentals...yes?
Which means your fortune hinges on not what you know...
but what they will or will not do with the oil price....

In order to get an edge in such situation...
I would have waited....
and if I have to pay a bit more.....
that's the price of insurance....

tongue.gif
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This is not a blind bet.. I was referring to WTI price during the 2008-2009 crash... that is the basis (Yes I was doing charting laugh.gif ) tongue.gif.

In 2008 WTI reach below $50.. then quickly back to $80-$100 range for a couple of years. ANd there WAS excess supply of oil during that period as well, the excess was quickly adsorbed within 6 months or so.

Now It might stay a bit longer at the bottom.. because the c2pid americans don't want to stop drilling.. but if you look at the long term WTI chart VS oil production & demand chart, it does not look like fundamental issue, it is a temporary panic sell. The WTI chart has broken way below the oil demand chart, it is matter of time more and more rigs are taken offline and the excess supply will balance itself.

Yes there is excess oil now of 1mmbbl per day also does not make sense in a daily world consumption of 50-55 mmbbl. That is only like 2% excess capacity while the price brokedown 60% from high rolleyes.gif . In a year or two that excess 1mmbbl will be easily adsorbed IF economies can grow by merely 2%, which is not impossible as emerging markets are growing at 3%-5% per clip, heck even Europe and US is growing at 1%-2% per year. icon_rolleyes.gif

And the c2pid americans cant even export all their excess oil by law until their storage tanks fill up..that was broke the WTI lately. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

And meanwhile the China government obviously thought crude at cheap now, they are stoking their national emergency stockpile at unprecedented rate. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 18 2015, 10:19 AM

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