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 Traders Kopitiam! V7

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river.sand
post Feb 27 2015, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Feb 27 2015, 05:29 PM)
PE/Growth ratio is still decent...no?

And got divvy lar...but only 1%

Final Dividend
EX-date: 10 Dec 2014
Entitlement date: 12 Dec 2014
Entitlement description: A final single-tier dividend of 2.5 sen per ordinary share of RM0.25 each
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oops... I missed that dividend sweat.gif

Karex PEG looks decent, but is 30% growth sustainable?

This post has been edited by river.sand: Feb 27 2015, 05:47 PM
river.sand
post Mar 3 2015, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 3 2015, 11:56 AM)
Must pay every year until expiry of preference shares or shares redeemed at fixed price of RM1.

Even company losing money etc.. also must pay one, like bond.  laugh.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Preference shares - no voting right if I were not mistaken
river.sand
post Mar 4 2015, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 4 2015, 12:12 PM)
I also feel wanna dump AFG and top up Century

AFG is well managed, but the price going nowhere. Generous with divvies la...

Sisters biggrin.gif
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Century involves in O&G logistic. Isn't that a risk?
river.sand
post Mar 5 2015, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 5 2015, 04:22 PM)
Sold laggards AFG and PPB from my portfolio...raise cash. Betting on "something" to happen either this Saturday or about 1MDB icon_question.gif
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Any tipsy icon_question.gif

I also sold one underperforming counter yesterday, and don't know which counter to buy...
river.sand
post Mar 6 2015, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 01:18 PM)
sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

Many AA routes in Indon have been cancelled recently..

Indon government asking for USD500,000 per passenger compensation... because the Surabaya-SG route was not authorized to fly at that time slot.
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Most ANALysts give BUY calls for AA rolleyes.gif
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5099.jsp

AA Indon was not doing well even before the air disaster. The same goes for AA Philippines.
AA India - still too early to know how it will fare.
And now AA is returning to Japan shakehead.gif Japan already got a few LCC, not to mention Shinkansen. But Tony somehow believes only his model will work.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Mar 6 2015, 02:21 PM
river.sand
post Mar 6 2015, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 6 2015, 04:25 PM)
they did high price?  blink.gif
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AA indeed hedged oil at high price, but I guess still lower than in earlier quarters.
If you read quarterly report carefully, you will notice that much of its 'loss' was caused by unrealized forex loss. Thing is not as bad as many thought.

Then again, AA Indon disaster is likely to have an averse effect this year. And who knows ebola/MERS may spread to SEA whistling.gif
river.sand
post Mar 6 2015, 06:23 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 6 2015, 05:57 PM)
AA Hedge @ 80, but current pricing all below 80 shakehead.gif

btw which one is the petrol one.. the one our gomen use to set retail price

Gasoline RBOB?  hmm.gif
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According to the article, 50% of fuel hedged at $88. The remaining 50% un-hedged. Average was $80.

(just an example)
Let's say in 3Q14, AA was paying for jet fuel at $95, and it hedged at $88. In 4Q14, when the hedged fuel was delivered, the price had dropped to $75.

It may look like AA lost $13/barrel. But in reality its cost for 4Q14 was down by $7/barrel compared to previous quarter.

(AA would only lose $13/barrel if it had resell the fuel. Traders buy and sell, AA doesn't.)

So, the ANALysts think low oil price is a boon (no-pun intended) to airlines. But the problem is, when competitors like MAS and Lion Air scrap fuel surcharge, AA has to follow. In the end the margin is as low as ever. Coupled with the (yet-to-realized) forex loss and the disaster, AA's near term future is not great.



river.sand
post Mar 9 2015, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Mar 9 2015, 11:07 AM)
Ayam noob just baru belajar trade....rm10 profit oso ayam take lah hehehe

Ayam where got mil just prepare 6k only to take experience in stock market...thats why ayam cant afford -10-15-20% loss
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There is one tactic like this, and it's simple for noob:
take profit if the price rises 20%; cut loss if it drops 10%

Let's say you have 10 stocks. You take profit in 5 of them, and cut loss in the remaining 5, you still make money overall.

This is not my tactic though. I will look at the fundamentals before making decision.

river.sand
post Mar 10 2015, 09:28 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 9 2015, 08:53 PM)
And now there is a petronas petrol station in almost every kampung.. where can it expand to?  wink.gif
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Myanmar, Africa hmm.gif
river.sand
post Mar 11 2015, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Mar 11 2015, 11:24 AM)
Bjfood and Bjauto down today. Someone taking profit  hmm.gif
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VT wants to privatize them hmm.gif
river.sand
post Mar 12 2015, 08:28 AM

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QUOTE(vNirvana @ Mar 11 2015, 05:58 PM)
Mine still in red red.. wondering should buy in the low price to average down..

but o&g .. wondering how long it gonna takes to recover ..
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average down is a dirty phrase in this thread whistling.gif
river.sand
post Mar 13 2015, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 13 2015, 10:09 AM)
I would say PRIMARY we look at FUTURE profit growth OR stability (in case of divvy stocks)..  wink.gif

No use looking at past or present situation, stock investing is all about anticipation of the FUTURE.  laugh.gif

That what makes it hard to SCORE..  sweat.gif
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Speaking of SCORE, what do you think of the SCORE in Sarawak?
I am eying Sarawak-based stocks...
river.sand
post Mar 13 2015, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 13 2015, 11:23 AM)
Errr...look at my siggy as reference? tongue.gif

But ignore PJDEV-WC lar laugh.gif
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Karex is growth stock lah... but hopefully its dividend with grow together with its profit.
river.sand
post Mar 13 2015, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 13 2015, 11:39 AM)
Net cash position i.e. zero geared

Just a matter of time before they can pay more divvy (currently only 1% yield)
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Also depends on whether its boss kiamsiap or not.
Like LKT, best paid director in Malaysia, but all companies in Genting Group pay little dividend laugh.gif
river.sand
post Mar 16 2015, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 16 2015, 10:30 AM)
Yes.. oil is a finite resource, it is getting harder and harder to obtain.. and there are LESS major oil discovery every year hence the global reserves are actually shrinking every year. It will be harder and harder and more expensive to obtain the liquid gold from the ground in time to come.

Fracking is a relatively new technology, and they are reviving OLD wells to squeeze out whatever remaining oil, which was not tapped last time. The bakken formation is not a new discovery, it has been tapped since the 1900's. Each fracking well lifetime is only about 12-16 months as they are squeezing out the last toothpaste from the tube. It will be matter of time all the oil is gone from the bakken formation but it will take at least 5-10 years  tongue.gif

Energy efficiency and alternative power is slowly replacing oil, but they are still expensive and not cost effective. And even if enough alternative energy to displace oil consumption. Oil is not only used for fuel, it is in your everyday products from plastics, to fertilizers, food products, cosmetics etc.. and these are not replaceable anytime soon.

There are 'green' alternatives of course which is made from corn, soybean or palm oil, but increasingly these will be used for food in the future, as by 2050 the earth will add a another 2 billion population. By then food, fuel and fertilizer will be a scarcity.

Thus looking at the extreme long term view, my super long term portfolio is concentrated on food (palm oil), fuel (OnG), alternative energy and fertilizers (phosphate), which has limited reserves and have no scientific ways to manufacture it.  wink.gif
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I believe water will be very precious in future. Aside from the much-dreaded water rationing in Malaysia, California and Brazil also face water shortage.
Any tips tongue.gif
river.sand
post Mar 16 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 16 2015, 10:46 AM)
I am invested in NEWater.. as well  laugh.gif
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How about Hyflux?
river.sand
post Mar 16 2015, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 16 2015, 11:54 AM)
Sex is best way to release stress rclxms.gif
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Not beer meh?
me teetotaler, so...


QUOTE(gark @ Mar 16 2015, 11:54 AM)
Plastic and packaging comes to mind ...

And furniture ...

And eggs ...

And feedmill ...

etc etc
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There is one company which makes 'fake egg', and it has got Li Ka-Shing as investor tongue.gif
user posted image

But this will not pose threat to real egg any time soon lah laugh.gif
river.sand
post Mar 17 2015, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 16 2015, 11:08 AM)
Keppel Infra.. 7.2% DY.  laugh.gif

20 years concession expiry 2027..  laugh.gif
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Keppel Infra Trust owns NEWater plant, but doesn't own the technology?
It would be great if it can export the technology. The whole world will face water shortage problem in future.
river.sand
post Mar 17 2015, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(Lowyaa @ Mar 17 2015, 04:40 PM)
I thought paid service sure got something you know, other people don't know one.

Ok la... But good quarter report really can boom the share price like superlon & magni this week.
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The keyword is... surprise.

I mean, surprise in quarterly results.

This post has been edited by river.sand: Mar 17 2015, 04:48 PM
river.sand
post Mar 18 2015, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(oe_kintaro @ Mar 18 2015, 11:39 AM)
interesting perspective, but personally this round I think it has to do with the strength of the USD. It's not that the American's are stupid. Actually they're really clever in manipulating it.
QE3 stopped around Oct 2014. The price of Oil really nose dived around then as the US dollar gained strength, since oil has to be traded in USD.
Low oil prices benefit a manufacturing based economy. This means that 42 states in the Union gained competitive advantage vs only 8 shale oils states suffering, plus the low prices are also killing oil producers which are not friendly with the US, such as Venezuela, Iran and Russia, forcing some like Iran to the bargaining table. You think you can laugh at the Americans for stupidity, but then you realize they are actually the ones sitting pretty at the moment with low unemployment and inflation..... it's not always about just the oil. You have to look at the larger geopolitical / geo-economic  perspective too.
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Just curious... can the US government, or the state governments, tell the oil companies to stop drilling? US is not an authoritarian country like Saudi and Venezuela.

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