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 M Reits Version 7, Malaysia Real Estate Investment

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AhJian
post Sep 12 2019, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 12 2019, 05:04 PM)
If one is selecting reit based on higher dividend yield, then one can easily fall into so called yield trapped, similar to low PE trap story in ordinary stock.

Those with high yield one, generally their properties lease is more risky.
Those are more susceptible to glut problem or downturn time, that's why they are higher risk, because investors demand higher yield to compensate the risk taken.

In fact, if we look back, those performing reit generally are those so called low yield reit, because those reit have prime properties and has no problem to secure lease.

Reit is all about "rent it out", a simple story to tell.
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Thanks. Will take note on this.
Boon3
post Sep 12 2019, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Sep 12 2019, 04:53 PM)
Back to basic, REIT is similar to buy property and rent it out to collect rental.

If the property but cannot find tenants, or tenants do not pay rental in time, or tenant paying less and less rental, rugi lo.

No property income, no distribution.  laugh.gif
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This is also what I had always said about dividends too...

QUOTE
Dividends are needless to say good but it cannot be the deciding factor. Simply because the dividends are never ever cast in stone. Dividends can go down one. And once the dividend is paid less, the stock will go down. That's not fact, that's just natural human reaction. Pay less woh. Still good meh?

And this is the biggest risk in dividend stocks!!


icon_rolleyes.gif


Tomorrow if got time, let's gatal on another reit la.



Hansel
post Sep 12 2019, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 12 2019, 05:04 PM)
If one is selecting reit based on higher dividend yield, then one can easily fall into so called yield trapped, similar to low PE trap story in ordinary stock.

Those with high yield one, generally their properties lease is more risky.
Those are more susceptible to glut problem or downturn time, that's why they are higher risk, because investors demand higher yield to compensate the risk taken.

In fact, if we look back, those performing reit generally are those so called low yield reit, because those reit have prime properties and has no problem to secure lease.

Reit is all about "rent it out", a simple story to tell.
*
Actually, bro Cherroy,... I look at it in another way,... a GOOD REIT may have higher yield, but the price will soon catch-up with it when investors start to notice it.

I am vested in SG REITs,... let me use these as examples to illustrate here,...

1) When First REIT first started listed in 2005, I think, the yield was quite high, being a hospital REIT. But of course, tere will be arguments saying that this REIT had higher yield because of the props being in Indonesia (prone to volcanic disruptions, etc),... but as time ges by, it proved to be good, and the price rose.

2) The Mapletree group of REITs,... the dpu grew, the price grew together,... another eg,.. Frasers Centrepoint Trust,.. the dpu grew, the price grew too, causing the yield to drop.

I believed,... as a REIT investor, one can only try to take a risk to GO IN TO A REIT early, before the price runs away.

When the fundamentals of a REIT start to chg, good egs here would be First REIT, Sabana REIT, Cache Logistics Trust and ESR-REIT today,... one should then be able to trap this happening, and hopefully, with a good margin-of-safety built from many years of holding, TAKE PROFIT instead of cutting loss.

The jurisdiction is also important,... and how the regulators manage the REITs,...

IF a jurisdiction is such that it is hard for the landlord to impose proper rules and habits for tenants to pay rents, then,... I must say chances of defaults would be higher,... this would be one of the weaknesses posed by a jurisdiction.

Perhaps,... this is another risk factor of investing in REITs,... Jurisdictional Risk.
Boon3
post Sep 12 2019, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 12 2019, 09:41 PM)
Actually, bro Cherroy,... I look at it in another way,... a GOOD REIT may have higher yield, but the price will soon catch-up with it when investors start to notice it.

I am vested in SG REITs,... let me use these as examples to illustrate here,...

1) When First REIT first started listed in 2005, I think, the yield was quite high, being a hospital REIT. But of course, tere will be arguments saying that this REIT had higher yield because of the props being in Indonesia (prone to volcanic disruptions, etc),... but as time ges by, it proved to be good, and the price rose.

2) The Mapletree group of REITs,... the dpu grew, the price grew together,... another eg,.. Frasers Centrepoint Trust,.. the dpu grew, the price grew too, causing the yield to drop.

I believed,... as a REIT investor, one can only try to take a risk to GO IN TO A REIT early, before the price runs away.

When the fundamentals of a REIT start to chg, good egs here would be First REIT, Sabana REIT, Cache Logistics Trust and ESR-REIT today,... one should then be able to trap this happening, and hopefully, with a good margin-of-safety built from many years of holding, TAKE PROFIT instead of cutting loss.

The jurisdiction is also important,... and how the regulators manage the REITs,...

IF a jurisdiction is such that it is hard for the landlord to impose proper rules and habits for tenants to pay rents, then,... I must say chances of defaults would be higher,... this would be one of the weaknesses posed by a jurisdiction.

Perhaps,... this is another risk factor of investing in REITs,... Jurisdictional Risk.
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Just curious Hansel, have you stumbled on a SReit whose dpu was declining? If yes, could you do a back test and see if the Reit investor of that Reit made or lose money.

I made several real data tests on several reits recently. It showed clearly reits with declining reits caused investors to lose money.
Hansel
post Sep 13 2019, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 12 2019, 09:57 PM)
Just curious Hansel, have you stumbled on a SReit whose dpu was declining? If yes, could you do a back test and see if the Reit investor of that Reit made or lose money.

I made several real data tests on several reits recently. It showed clearly reits with declining reits caused investors to lose money.
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Bro Boon,... losing money,.. as a live example from my very own experience - HPH Trust !

The dpu is falling, causing the unit price to fall in tandem...

I attended the AGM once a few years ago. The price then was around 50c. Some investors there told me : This ctr IPO'ed at 1.00, you know.... Now dropped to half already,... where can drop some more ??!!??,....

I have lost a small amt by then, which prompted me to attend the AGM.

I cutloss immediately after that, losing a few cts per unit against my Buy Price of 54.56c...

So,... yes,... lost money myself.

As a matter of curiosity, this afternoon, I checked,... the price of HPH Trust now is at 15.7c and based on my earlier Buy Price of 54.56c, I have lost 72.11%. I held on to 100 units in my portfolio to study this ctr !
Krv23490
post Sep 13 2019, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 13 2019, 01:48 PM)
Bro Boon,... losing money,.. as a live example from my very own experience - HPH Trust !

The dpu is falling, causing the unit price to fall in tandem...

I attended the AGM once a few years ago. The price then was around 50c. Some investors there told me : This ctr IPO'ed at 1.00, you know.... Now dropped to half already,... where can drop some more ??!!??,....

I have lost a small amt by then, which prompted me to attend the AGM.

I cutloss immediately after that, losing a few cts per unit against my Buy Price of 54.56c...

So,... yes,... lost money myself.

As a matter of curiosity, this afternoon, I checked,... the price of HPH Trust now is at 15.7c and based on my earlier Buy Price of 54.56c, I have lost 72.11%. I held on to 100 units in my portfolio to study this ctr !
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What happened to that REIT? If you don’t mind sharing
moosset
post Sep 13 2019, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 13 2019, 01:48 PM)
Bro Boon,... losing money,.. as a live example from my very own experience - HPH Trust !

The dpu is falling, causing the unit price to fall in tandem...

I attended the AGM once a few years ago. The price then was around 50c. Some investors there told me : This ctr IPO'ed at 1.00, you know.... Now dropped to half already,... where can drop some more ??!!??,....

I have lost a small amt by then, which prompted me to attend the AGM.

I cutloss immediately after that, losing a few cts per unit against my Buy Price of 54.56c...

So,... yes,... lost money myself.

As a matter of curiosity, this afternoon, I checked,... the price of HPH Trust now is at 15.7c and based on my earlier Buy Price of 54.56c, I have lost 72.11%. I held on to 100 units in my portfolio to study this ctr !
*
smart decision!! I probably wouldn't have made the same move. sad.gif
Boon3
post Sep 13 2019, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 13 2019, 01:48 PM)
Bro Boon,... losing money,.. as a live example from my very own experience - HPH Trust !

The dpu is falling, causing the unit price to fall in tandem...

I attended the AGM once a few years ago. The price then was around 50c. Some investors there told me : This ctr IPO'ed at 1.00, you know.... Now dropped to half already,... where can drop some more ??!!??,....

I have lost a small amt by then, which prompted me to attend the AGM.

I cutloss immediately after that, losing a few cts per unit against my Buy Price of 54.56c...

So,... yes,... lost money myself.

As a matter of curiosity, this afternoon, I checked,... the price of HPH Trust now is at 15.7c and based on my earlier Buy Price of 54.56c, I have lost 72.11%. I held on to 100 units in my portfolio to study this ctr !
*
This is what I noticed with mreits like Hektar, Amfirst and Twreit. Despite their rather high DY, for example hektar is currently trading with a DY of 8.38%, Amfirst 7.92%.. if one look at their dpu, its declining yearly.. and so is their stock prices.

Which means despite their high DY, an investor will still lose money despite getting these so called juicy dividends!

Yup, one can still lose money despite getting high DY!
moosset
post Sep 13 2019, 04:24 PM

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do you guys also diversify and invest in US or Japan REITs?
PortgasDerekAce
post Sep 14 2019, 12:32 AM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Sep 13 2019, 04:24 PM)
do you guys also diversify and invest in US or Japan REITs?
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My opinion: SG REITs are more attractive than Malaysian REITs, but this thread is for discussion on Malaysian REITs so let’s respect that.

If I ever going to invest in US, I will go for Vanguard ETF for sure. No idea about Japan REITs.
Havoc Knightmare
post Sep 14 2019, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Sep 13 2019, 04:24 PM)
do you guys also diversify and invest in US or Japan REITs?
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The unfavourable tax regimes can make the net dividend yields of these markets look pathetic. Don't be fooled by their gross dividend yields.
Hansel
post Sep 16 2019, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 13 2019, 04:01 PM)
This is what I noticed with mreits like Hektar, Amfirst and Twreit. Despite their rather high DY, for example hektar is currently trading with a DY of 8.38%, Amfirst 7.92%.. if one look at their dpu, its declining yearly.. and so is their stock prices.

Which means despite their high DY, an investor will still lose money despite getting these so called juicy dividends!

Yup, one can still lose money despite getting high DY!
*
Yes bro,... if we are going to look in absolute sense into the DY of a yield only, then a high DY can still make one lose money after sometime be eating up into the principal. It's just like in a war,... one army may win a particular battle, but it can also lose the whole war.

We have to fight the war in totality, ie by winning as many battles as possible to capture the war.
cherroy
post Sep 16 2019, 10:37 AM

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High div yield is not a "magic figure" or foolproof figure.

How well the reit is doing, aka its DPU level is the key.

So investors need to constantly monitoring about it, just like any ordinary stocks, profit level of the company always dictate the share price.

Basically for reit, it is DPU and interest rate environment that dictating the reit price.

1) DPU up, reit price up
2) DPU constant, interest rate environment down - reit price up.
3) DPU constant, interest rate up = reit price down.
4) DPU down, reit price down.

Those performing generally because of factor 1), and lately 4)
While those poor performing one are generally due to factor 4).




Hansel
post Sep 16 2019, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 16 2019, 10:37 AM)
High div yield is not a "magic figure" or foolproof figure.

How well the reit is doing, aka its DPU level is the key.

So investors need to constantly monitoring about it, just like any ordinary stocks, profit level of the company always dictate the share price.

Basically for reit, it is DPU and interest rate environment that dictating the reit price.

1) DPU up, reit price up
2) DPU constant, interest rate environment down - reit price up.
3) DPU constant, interest rate up = reit price down.
4) DPU down, reit price down.

Those performing  generally because of factor 1), and lately 4)
While those poor performing one are generally due to factor 4).
*
I used to think like the above. but as the years went by,... I discovered it's not so simple as that,....
cherroy
post Sep 16 2019, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 16 2019, 11:51 AM)
I used to think like the above. but as the years went by,... I discovered it's not so simple as that,....
*
Life or investment is never simple, or has any one simple formula.

Just a simple illustration as starting point especially for newcomer. smile.gif

A lot other factors may chip in between, confident towards the management, constant ask for shareholders money (rights), prospect ahead, institutional investors participant etc. may affect the reit price as well.




Hansel
post Sep 16 2019, 05:36 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 12 2019, 09:41 PM)
Actually, bro Cherroy,... I look at it in another way,... a GOOD REIT may have higher yield, but the price will soon catch-up with it when investors start to notice it.

I am vested in SG REITs,... let me use these as examples to illustrate here,...

1) When First REIT first started listed in 2005, I think, the yield was quite high, being a hospital REIT. But of course, tere will be arguments saying that this REIT had higher yield because of the props being in Indonesia (prone to volcanic disruptions, etc),... but as time ges by, it proved to be good, and the price rose.

2) The Mapletree group of REITs,... the dpu grew, the price grew together,... another eg,.. Frasers Centrepoint Trust,.. the dpu grew, the price grew too, causing the yield to drop.

I believed,... as a REIT investor, one can only try to take a risk to GO IN TO A REIT early, before the price runs away.

When the fundamentals of a REIT start to chg, good egs here would be First REIT, Sabana REIT, Cache Logistics Trust and ESR-REIT today,... one should then be able to trap this happening, and hopefully, with a good margin-of-safety built from many years of holding, TAKE PROFIT instead of cutting loss.

The jurisdiction is also important,... and how the regulators manage the REITs,...

IF a jurisdiction is such that it is hard for the landlord to impose proper rules and habits for tenants to pay rents, then,... I must say chances of defaults would be higher,... this would be one of the weaknesses posed by a jurisdiction.

Perhaps,... this is another risk factor of investing in REITs,... Jurisdictional Risk.
*
Following are further initiatives to strengthen on governance for REITs, and hence, to protect investors' money,...

This is the Jurisdictional Risk I was talking abt last Thursday,...

http://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/regul..._eid=89d8698c85
JeffreyYap
post Sep 24 2019, 04:19 PM

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Anyone know what happened to Arreit? Until now they don't have a chairman and the price kept dropping.

This post has been edited by JeffreyYap: Sep 24 2019, 04:19 PM
patling63
post Sep 25 2019, 11:26 AM

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Arreit at its lowest of 0.755. Buy unless going bankrupt
PortgasDerekAce
post Sep 25 2019, 12:22 PM

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do you think the recent i-invest app/service has anything to do with the slowdown? i mean, it is really defensive and people pulling out from bursa to park there, getting the income instrument protection. perfect for recent recession sentiment too.
moosset
post Sep 25 2019, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(PortgasDerekAce @ Sep 25 2019, 12:22 PM)
do you think the recent i-invest app/service has anything to do with the slowdown? i mean, it is really defensive and people pulling out from bursa to park there, getting the income instrument protection. perfect for recent recession sentiment too.
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what is i-invest?

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