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 Falling Oil Prices - Where it leaves Malaysia, Not too bad afterall

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BillySteel
post Jan 15 2015, 10:04 AM

On my way
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661 posts

Joined: Jul 2008
From: Yankee Territory


QUOTE(METALRAGE @ Jan 14 2015, 07:53 PM)
With the air of uncertainty being felt as a result of falling oil prices, i'd like to share this very well explained article below.

i couldn't copy and paste some of the tables and figures because they are images. but you can visit the link to view in its original form.

Basically, the summary of it is:
1) Malaysia is actually (MOST SHOCKING REVELATION) a net importer of crude oil
2) Economy will shrink overall on low oil prices, but felt unevenly
3) Government revenue will fall, but it's not as high impact as it could be for reasons explained inside the write up
4) Good news is that the balance of trade could move in Malaysia's favor
5) And inflation is kept in check  icon_rolleyes.gif

Let's hope things will not be so bad for us in 2015.

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Original Source: Falling oil prices and its effect on Malaysia
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Malaysia is actually known as an oil exporter as oppose to an importer. Its true we do sell our light sweet crude and buy heavier fuels from overseas hence the net oil importer belief.

Askwhy

If 1MDB fails the gov is in shit. And lets not forget the second storm brewing with PFI which is under the ministry of finance.

Although the government did insure only 5bil of the loan lets not forget the cascading effect of a default at that size.

Back to oil.....didnt najib say he was going to revise the budget.

I was kinda sceptical when dreamer first said the ship is sinking....now i am probably in the lifeboat with him on this.....this week another 200mil gone from the markets.

Good thing i brought usd since foresaw impending doom anyway.

Malaysia relied to much on black gold......now that black gold is cheap taxpayers will be first to pay the price....second the consumers. Malaysia should serve as a example on how to save your money for rainy days and not spend like you own the world.
BillySteel
post Jan 16 2015, 05:18 AM

On my way
****
Senior Member
661 posts

Joined: Jul 2008
From: Yankee Territory


QUOTE(METALRAGE @ Jan 15 2015, 12:57 PM)
inefficient public spending and abuse of office is a constant whether or not oil prices are high or low. 1MDB, PFI, PKFZ, BR1M, Youth Car Scheme, white elephant projects, these are issues and expenditures that most people are unhappy about, but have nothing to do with oil prices. discretionary expenditures are a function of total govt revenue, regardless if it came from oil or gst or dug out of the gold ore of the rakyat's noses

in critical thinking, one should have the ability to separate one issue from another to assess each merit unto itself. oil prices are ONLY ONE of the levers on our economy. i started this discussion to objectively assess the impact of falling oil prices on Malaysia which also seems to be the point of that article. i believe the article got all the moving parts correct, some of which are not immediately obvious to joe public.

there is already enough avenues to vent your frustrations on our administration as well as debate the direction of our entire economy on a whole

try not to bring in unrelated issues to murk an objective discussion. it greatly helps the quality of the discussion
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There is a reason why bloomberg is highly held for its market research and news.

I dont really bother much reading the rest.

Oil/gas is the main energy driver in most markets. Lets stick to Malaysia.

Malaysia's main source of income is derived directly and indirectly from 2 main products palm oil and oil/gas. Its effect on the economy in Malaysia is wider than anyone could anticipate and to discuss its falling prices to the economy is in tantamount to discuss the economy of malaysia.

Assuming everyone here is a brilliant minded average joe:

Lets look at KL the life and breath of Malaysia. Almost 70% of businesses there derive some sort of income directly or indirectly from the twin towers.

The oil and gas industry is also one of the main paymasters to many workers in and around Malaysia.

Loss of revenue and if people lose jobs = less taxes.

Once people lose jobs.....with current household debt at all time high.....will lead to the ever increasing defaults when people cant pay. And well brilliant minded average joes will know what that means.

Now tell me what other industry in Malaysia pays as much as the oil and gas industry? Only investment banking. And who do you think can afford all the houses at current prices?

Iskandar is a perfect example of oil and gas relation with the local economy. Due to pengerang, iskandar malaysia property prices shot up like crazy. And who is going to live in all this properties if demand for oil doesnt drive up employement?

Well investors and the drop of the ringgit has spoken against Malaysia's positiin in this debate.


 

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