With the air of uncertainty being felt as a result of falling oil prices, i'd like to share this very well explained article below.

i couldn't copy and paste some of the tables and figures because they are images. but you can visit the link to view in its original form.

Basically, the summary of it is:
1) Malaysia is actually (MOST SHOCKING REVELATION) a net importer of crude oil
2) Economy will shrink overall on low oil prices, but felt unevenly
3) Government revenue will fall, but it's not as high impact as it could be for reasons explained inside the write up
4) Good news is that the balance of trade could move in Malaysia's favor
5) And inflation is kept in check

Let's hope things will not be so bad for us in 2015.



Original Source: Falling oil prices and its effect on Malaysia

This post has been edited by METALRAGE: Jan 14 2015, 07:03 PM

nice of u to start this thread.

i'll just say a few things...

... actually, i think our gomen never dreamed about the scenario where oil can be usd45 as seen by the 110 used in 2015 budget. so, there u have it - our "brightest" brains at work. ya, now, maybe frantically to do a new budget with 80? i hv done many budgets n i can say i hate to do one with a 30 or 50% cut in 30% of the revenues!

.. net importer or exporter, hmm... this one, who knows unless the civil servants collecting data are doing their job and show us. but the chart in the article is flawed - it is in barrels and not in usd or rm. msia export light crude of a higher value and import heavy crude with a lower value. the real figures aren't there.

.. petrol subsidy may have been thrown out, but we still hv other subsidies. subsidies, special privileges, cash handouts, etc. distort the real economy. so, even if we benefit from low oil price as an importer, there is no telling where the benefits go. more so when gomen can, at the stroke of a pen, remove this or that, or add this or that. what if they impose a new petrol tax to collect more revenues? or create half a million new jobs out of the blue?

... i like to think int'l markets are efficient. if the out-of-country brains think and did what they did recently and now - selling bursa stocks, rm going 3.60/usd, we conclude external parties do not see it as positive, at least not for the time being.

.. perhaps it is temp, not enough facts, too much bs floated around. or we simply don't even know!!

just a few thoughts of my own....

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 14 2015, 07:36 PM

TS,

1) Your source is from a web site that the main business is property loan. Now, if the economy is going to hell and property market is going to crash, would you EXPECT this source to tell you?? Of course not. It will be out of business.

2) When the oil price was at record high during 2012, THE GOVERNMENT increase its debt at 40 to 50 billions. THE GOVERNMENT is expected to increase its debt around the same amount at 2015 if the Oil Price is at high level with GST. THE QUESTION back to YOU is this, what do you THINK THE GOVERNMENT will do NOW

A) Increase more taxes

B) Cut spending SUBSTANTIALLY

C) Increase DEBT at even higher pace.

A reasonable person will believe that (A) to © will happen together. Now, if that happened, what will happen to the ECONOMY?? Please noted that 50+% of KLSE is owned by THE GOVERNMENT, GLC, and GLIC.

This ship is sinking fast. If you do not know this, it is TOO LATE for you.

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3374996

Dreamer

this one is contentious...

likely cut all... except the really wasteful ones incl the notorious year-after year-nobody-does-nothing highlighted by a-g.

AVFAN,

It is NOT as long as it only affects RAKYAT but not THE GOVERNMENT. For example, oil subsidy cut. Gas subsidy cut and increase electric bill..

Dreamer

Things will be tough going into 2015 for sure. What the article has shown is illuminate the various moving parts affected by falling oil prices, and is not a commentary piece on the entire economy as a whole when all factors are taken together (gst, new potential taxes which aren't even here yet, subsidies unrelated to petro dollar which would have been there in the first place) etc.

Ceteris paribus.

Malaysia is actually known as an oil exporter as oppose to an importer. Its true we do sell our light sweet crude and buy heavier fuels from overseas hence the net oil importer belief.

Askwhy

If 1MDB fails the gov is in shit. And lets not forget the second storm brewing with PFI which is under the ministry of finance.

Although the government did insure only 5bil of the loan lets not forget the cascading effect of a default at that size.

Back to oil.....didnt najib say he was going to revise the budget.

I was kinda sceptical when dreamer first said the ship is sinking....now i am probably in the lifeboat with him on this.....this week another 200mil gone from the markets.

Good thing i brought usd since foresaw impending doom anyway.

Malaysia relied to much on black gold......now that black gold is cheap taxpayers will be first to pay the price....second the consumers. Malaysia should serve as a example on how to save your money for rainy days and not spend like you own the world.

inefficient public spending and abuse of office is a constant whether or not oil prices are high or low. 1MDB, PFI, PKFZ, BR1M, Youth Car Scheme, white elephant projects, these are issues and expenditures that most people are unhappy about, but have nothing to do with oil prices. discretionary expenditures are a function of total govt revenue, regardless if it came from oil or gst or dug out of the gold ore of the rakyat's noses

in critical thinking, one should have the ability to separate one issue from another to assess each merit unto itself. oil prices are ONLY ONE of the levers on our economy. i started this discussion to objectively assess the impact of falling oil prices on Malaysia which also seems to be the point of that article. i believe the article got all the moving parts correct, some of which are not immediately obvious to joe public.

there is already enough avenues to vent your frustrations on our administration as well as debate the direction of our entire economy on a whole

try not to bring in unrelated issues to murk an objective discussion. it greatly helps the quality of the discussion

Net importer? Don't think so.

To my knowledge Malaysia exports quite an amount of HSD and Bio-Diesel.

There is a reason why bloomberg is highly held for its market research and news.

I dont really bother much reading the rest.

Oil/gas is the main energy driver in most markets. Lets stick to Malaysia.

Malaysia's main source of income is derived directly and indirectly from 2 main products palm oil and oil/gas. Its effect on the economy in Malaysia is wider than anyone could anticipate and to discuss its falling prices to the economy is in tantamount to discuss the economy of malaysia.

Assuming everyone here is a brilliant minded average joe:

Lets look at KL the life and breath of Malaysia. Almost 70% of businesses there derive some sort of income directly or indirectly from the twin towers.

The oil and gas industry is also one of the main paymasters to many workers in and around Malaysia.

Loss of revenue and if people lose jobs = less taxes.

Once people lose jobs.....with current household debt at all time high.....will lead to the ever increasing defaults when people cant pay. And well brilliant minded average joes will know what that means.

Now tell me what other industry in Malaysia pays as much as the oil and gas industry? Only investment banking. And who do you think can afford all the houses at current prices?

Iskandar is a perfect example of oil and gas relation with the local economy. Due to pengerang, iskandar malaysia property prices shot up like crazy. And who is going to live in all this properties if demand for oil doesnt drive up employement?

Well investors and the drop of the ringgit has spoken against Malaysia's positiin in this debate.

Its too late to react now. If you haven't done anything to spread your risk previously, all you can do is just sit back and watch. And possibly just hope for the best.

Investment is about risk management. Not putting all eggs into 1 basket. It is a long term planning. Get your portfolio balanced in both your home country and overseas assets. So that currency fluctuation will offset each other 90% of the time. Also get your portfolio to involve across the industries so that sectorial effect (like oil price slump now) will not have substantial effect overall.

My only weakness is the distrust in precious metal. Maybe it is good time to look into gold as everyone is avoiding it. I have a feeling that if Russia is kept victimised by the West, they can just "slip" a nuclear weapon to the terrorist and get it detonated in 1 of the oil producing country. Then all hell break lose and oil will be in $150 region and gold hit $3000. Just my conspiracy theory on a Friday...

wad to do ot get on d lifeboat?

Shouldn't be too pessimistic about Malaysia ... Shall see the glimpse of light when crude price stabilizes ,Malaysia's fundamentals are not as bad as a decade ago , hope for a possible rebound after a bumpy ride

ya, kinda a little late at this time. but... one is never too late to do anything! still possible to act to protect a bit, spread it out a bit, some in foreign denominations. conspiracies theories aside, one's better off looking for answers to questions like... where r v heading longer term?

i m not so sure if v r better off than in 1998... at that time, v may have less fx reserves but v dun hv almost a rm 1 trillion debt then.
while i do think crude n cpo will stabilize n firm in the next 24 months, what else do v hv besides this hope - some producers will cut production or the rest of the world will consume more oil? manage the nation by "hope"?

where is the self help? that is, cut back on expense n wastage, projects n plans to increase production/productivity? i hardly hear of investments in agri or factories these days. only more wastage (n nobody does nothing), "funds dunno gone where", more taxes, gst...

pardon me if i m in the minority who just don't see "how things can improve by doing nothing".


added, good read:
long article by sam chee kong on rm, usd, oil, debt, budget:


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 17 2015, 11:34 PM

Now is see brim is giving an amount of 54mil. And this isn't including the flood relief loans. Really worry.

Why I got the feeling that next round of petrol price changes would be at minimal level compare with previous month

At 3.6-3.7 and oil at 40, how low further can it go ? I don't think its a good idea to shift now. In fact I am thinking of profit taking. But that is just my position though...If all my holdings are in malaysia and RM, I would just see it through as the downside is minimal. There are still some KLCI stock which is at attractive prices and yield now

Don't know why so many people have the wrong idea that Malaysia is very dependent on oil/gas and palm oil.

Our debt to gdp levels were far higher in the past:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=m...ent-debt-to-gdp

this is the billion rm question, isn't it?!
i doubt anyone knows, not even bnm. but one can take a position, maybe as a hedge.
i m of the view the state of my's economy/rm is not all about oil.

a diff perspective.... when sgd=rm2.30, we thought it had gone far enough. then 2.50. now, almost 2.7.
how low can it go? 2.80, 3.0? or return to 2.50, 2.30? reasons?

i don't know what gomen debt/gdp can really tell us.
might be more useful to look at total int/ext, public/private, gomen/household debt levels...?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jan 18 2015, 10:14 AM

Maybe you should look at Singapore's gov debt levels:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=s...ent-debt-to-gdp

I would take any position that can make money. Short term there are opportunity. Long term also there are opportunity. Why would we give more weight to long term than short term ?

Like risk management, we should not only hold long term position in our investment. Nothing should be too rigid, or 1 rule rules all. I always believe in flexibility as investment is very fluid

It is just my view that the upside is more than the downside of the RM and oil price at this point in time. No oil producing countries will make much money below $40. That's why I predict the worst is already here. If a person has not already diversify their portfolio, it is not worthy to do it now

totally agreed .

my 2 cents
Winners do not chuck during the low but to aim at undervalued and park the money looking for greater return in the future ...
Losers are usually kiasu ppl , drop - worry , drop drop - cannot sleep , drop drop drop - panic attack , drop drop drop drop - sell off and hoping the next day things get worse n feel lucky to have done the selling early ... rebound - aiya y i sell it ! , up up - damn ! waiting that to go down first then i'll buy , up up up - damn I am buying it !!! up up up up - yeah !!!! DROP - FML !

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/201...illustrated.png

Dreamer has been proven WRONG! Electricity and gas hikes were stalled..

ZZMsia,

Gas price had dropped substantially. To match the drop in gas price, electricity and gas price need to drop. But, the electricity and gas price pay by the consumer did not drop. So, either THE GOVERNMENT pay a lot less subsidy or THE GOVERNMENT is collecting tax now or both. So, where does the money goes?? The savings are not pass to the consumer...

Dreamer

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sidevie...-sin-chew-daily

Moreover, the government hiked electricity tariff by 16% in January last year due to the then high international crude oil price.

It triggered dissatisfaction among business operators as the tariff has not been reduced even though the oil price has now plummeted.

The public opines that although the country's electricity relies mainly on coal and natural gas, but since they are alternatives to petroleum, their prices had fluctuated with the oil price and so, the cost should have been reduced since oil price has fallen.

The Energy, Green Technology and Water Ministry's argument saying plummeting oil price does not help in lowering electricity tariff does not seem convincing.

After the crude oil price fell last year, the Singapore government announced 8% of reduction in electricity tariff on January 1 this year while Sarawak Chief Minister Datuk Seri Adenan Satem announced on November 20 last year a reduction in electricity tariff by 40%.

- See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/sidevie...h.mDegcUBw.dpuf

just for the record...

today:

crude = usd44.50

usd = rm3.6375

-maekd-

I feel that is price war for oil will not meet an end anytime soon. As long as America is able to supply to it's own people at the least, isn't that at least borderline sustainable for them to continue on with this price?

The up and down of the economy present one with a opportunity as well as risk. Those who plan for it will benefits while those who over extend will facing risk of their own making. The GDP chart is not as simple as one see on that page as it does not take into account the debt transfer to special purpose vehicle. Who do you think end up paying for it? Other countries/IMF paying for it? Off course we are the one - the rakyat. The 1997 ghost project that stall took nearly 15 years to revive and some still left standing. Idxxs Hydrolixxc...anyone remember that saga?

How The American Shale Boom Warped The Oil Production Cost Curve
http://www.businessinsider.my/markets-char...QuqgypdX3gb6.99

Oil price drop.. but today I went drink kopi ice. Price up by 10cents..

OIl price shot up to USD56/boe (Brent crude).

I heard it's 20% up in past 4days

Tht's right - up continuously for the last four days. But as of 2 hrs ago, it fell, and now, turnd upwrds agin.

someone said that the upward trend is temporary only not sustainable for longer period

YOu re right. All th personalties interviewd on Bloombrg tody said the same thing till now.

Oil prices to average at US$53 a barrel this year, says World Bank

well, some opec people say usd30-35 coming:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102389281

just for the record, today: oil usd52, rm/usd = 3.564.


i observe in the markets in the last couple of months:

oil price down=> rm down, bursa down... and... us stocks down.... but usd up
oil price up=>rm up, bursa up... and us stocks up... usd down

well, i m sure the relationships are dynamic and not that simple but what is the correct directional indicator(s)?

what is interesting is the issue whether msia is net oil exporter or net oil importer? seen some arguments going nowhere...
if really net oil importer, bursa and rm should gain handsomely when oil price go down - like we see in thailand, philippines and indonesia, no?

multiple choice:

a. it's all perception, msia is actually net importer, most parties are wrong, bursa and rm shud be flying
b. oil imports-exports are about balanced, effects can swing either way
c. it's not all about oil, many other factors just as impt.
d. all of the above
e. none of the above.

so many questions, no answers...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 4 2015, 06:59 PM

I also wanna know if Malaysia is really Crude Oil Exporter or Net importer

Najib said Malaysia is Net importer of Oil, but Foreign Analyst said Malaysia is Exporter

Selling clean crude oil to other countries, importing low quality crude oil, process and sell.
But selling they won't say, import will boast it loud.
So you know I know. Salam Malaysia, rakyat diperbodohkan, pencapaian kroni diutamakan

So Malaysia is Net Importer or Exporter

Depends how we see it.
With a GTL plant in Bintulu, we are exporter.

This post has been edited by supersound: Feb 4 2015, 08:40 PM

supersound,

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=my

<<Malaysia is the world's second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas and the second-largest oil and natural gas producer in Southeast Asia, and is strategically located amid important routes for seaborne energy trade.>>

Actually, Malaysia produce more gas than crude oil. And, gas price in Asia is higher than the rest of the world. Gas price is related to crude oil price but not exactly. The worst is yet to come when USA start export gas. In that case, it will impact gas price directly..

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-...fire-up-in-2015

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/11/...N0TV2JZ20141211

Dreamer

the subject of the thread is oil, not petroleum. and i was refering to oil.

najib had said msia is net oil importer but net petroleum exporter if gas included.

dreamer is right, gas-oil prices not necessarily tightly correlated.

it is the possibility of lower gas prices that will might drive trade balance to a deficit, alto many think wun happen.



but the original question still remains - is msia a net oil (the black gold, not gas) importer or exporter?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 4 2015, 11:25 PM

Is break even if excluding LNG. They never disclose the LNG's volume sold. So you do the maths.
Crude oil = petroleum. LNG is hydrocarbon. Crude oil are composition of hydrocarbon.
Since you are talking about trade, now here's the catch :
Tapis, Bintulu, Labuan, Kidorong are some of the petroleum we are exporting out. In average, Tapis are at least 20% more expensive than Brent or WTI due to it is the sweetest in the world while others are at least 10% more expensive. Most of the petroleum dig out from Malaysian sea are sweet.
Petroleum from Middle East are at least 20% more cheaper than Brent or WTI but very high sulphur content, this is the rubbish we are buying and process it to products and sell to us. That's the reason why other countries already on Euro4 but we are still at Euro2.
So, we are exporting 90000t(example) and we import 95000t. By volume looks like we are "net" importer, but considering the money, we are exporter.

apologies... the word "petroleum" was used differently in his speech. he used rm figures, not tonnes. lng was not in his numbers.

here:

so, he is saying msia is net crude oil exporter, net petroleum importer, excluding lng.

ok, that makes sense but wait... still some are disagreeing...!
http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Markets/Has%20...rter%20of%20oil?


well, importer or exporter, oil or petroleum products or gas, we do know rm and bursa falls when oil prices goes down. we'll see it again tmrw since crude price has dropped 7% within the last 24 hrs.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 5 2015, 01:58 AM

Najib's word can be trusted?

i believe you guys are looking at the wrong thing. Government main source of income is Petronas, and Petronas operates all around the world. the point is government cant fill their coffers with dwindling profit gain from Petronas. Net oil importer or exporter, the goverment is still in big trouble.

This post has been edited by backspace66: Feb 5 2015, 08:28 AM

Should be import ~ export, can't be far from this, no point arguing. When oil goes down, Rakyat pay less for petrol, Petronas thus govt get less revenue.

Actually Najib should say money gain from Petronas are for political party and not for rakyat

Okay I give up.. don't care if Malaysia is Net Importer or Exporter.. that's one gomen problem

Main Concern is Lower oil price bad for M'sia Gomen, Lower RM etc. but good for rakyat bcoz lower retail fuel price..

bad thing about weaker RM is higher cost of doing Intl Trade

Looks like you get the point already

ya, never mind importer, exporter or pure waster!

for rakyat... bottomline, cheaper petrol is just about the only benefit. i just filled up since price went down. yes, nice to pay so much less for my tank.

i only wish tnb rates can go down like that too and why not? but... that is some other unique boland story unlikely to change, so little hope there.

other things... can expect double whammy with weak rm + looming gst - from coffee and beef to ipads and tires, it's going to get a lot costlier. older folks with small life savings in rm may find it esp difficult.



so, back to thread subject - are we better off with falling oil prices?

from usd110 to now 48. will we like it more if usd40 or 35?!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 5 2015, 02:16 PM

lower crude price than current levels come with even more damage esp with weaker RM, lower gomen revenue which could hurt more on the economy & directly to the rakyat

I also wish that TNB would reduce the rate.

also the manufacturer could reduce the price of some the products for the benefit of the rakyat. but I don't think it would happen in BolehLand. if yes, then pigs can fly

The question now is, when oil price high and government's income are higher, do we get benefits from it?

i was about to say...

oil price stagnant, oil price up, oil price down... rakyat gets f'ed overall as usual, nothing changes.

but don't we already know...??

So what to fuss about?
When oil price high, rakyat cry, government and related business laughs.
Now is ok what all cry together

That is right - now all cry together, except for the ones who hav made thr mony and sittng pretty, riding over the current mess in a comfortable way.

cry, laugh, shake head, whatever...

really, it all converges on a single message so eloquently described by dreamer (pardon me for invoking u but pls see it as some recognition!) : are u ready for the finale?

it may not be that far off, i fear...



thanks for all input, thanks for participating in this thread!

I'm not sure. Maybe subsidised essential item

As said before, there's no such as government are subsidizing rakyat in the first place. Only rakyat subsidizing government to ensure CEOs getting millions every year.
What type of essential items are subsidized by government?
Rice? 15% stock can you get in all supermarkets? Nope, you can't.
Sugar also cost higher.

In oil price war, Gulf producers grab market share in Asia
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...Asia/?style=biz

Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices slipped to trade at a discount to European prices for the first time since 2011, as weak demand weighed, traders said on Friday.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/g...11?type=Markets

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/06/u...N0LA1PF20150206

When the tiger is cornered, he will jump the wall

A small nuclear bomb in neutral oil producing country, in disguise of terrorist attack, is good solution to artificially cause oil price to sky rocket and save Russia economy.

Possible ?

Why not? You need big scale war to flip the oil price
But most of the people are coward now, talk more than do.

won't happen anytime soon.. saudi would produce more oil if really happen

Brent crude prices steadied near $58 a barrel on Monday, as falling U.S. oil rig counts and signs of healthy U.S. growth offset concerns over the strength of the Chinese economy

I realy wondered if the nos comng out from The USA are accurte. Wht about exports ? Is there realy a growng no of shipments being ordered by the Americns ?

Oil prices may come under more downward pressure before recovering later this year as ample supplies push inventories higher, perhaps towards record highs, the West's energy watchdog said on Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report that supplies remained abundant and that it would take time for investment cuts to make more than a relatively small dent on production, keeping prices low.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/m...ea?type=Markets

Sigh... chinese tea also RM0.60 at some coffee shops

Brent crude held steady above $56 a barrel on Wednesday, and U.S. crude rose briefly more than $1, after a smaller than expected rise in U.S. crude stocks were viewed by some as a sign that a supply glut was starting to abate.

oil prices weakening again after firming a few days.

for the record... today usd1=rm3.60, again... oil usd50 going lower...

msia is definitely "net oil exporter" - rm goes lower with lower oil price, every time!


one sector getting hit partly by weak rm:



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Feb 11 2015, 07:44 PM

Why rig cuts won't save oil: Goldman
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102415200

Shouldnt Oil prices stabilize now? Highly doubt there'll be a second drop.
Time to buy foreign oil stocks?

This post has been edited by dwin95: Feb 11 2015, 10:53 PM

On the long run this episode of low oil prices would be a good thing for Malaysia - because we'd be forced to not be so dependent on oil production as a country. This is a painful pill to swallow but the patient needs it badly.
We need to diversify and develop other industries as well.

Low oil price always good for most people

theoretically, academically n philosphically, that is correct and noble.

however, given how the annual budgets are drafted, spent or overspent every year, the consequences of sustained low oil price will be very severe, i dare not even think what they might be.

just think where all the money for the "usual expense" will come from... it will have to be either increased taxes or debt. how much more tax n debt can the people take?

this is going to be difficult for all. more so when no one incl our leaders in power seem to even consider this scenario until now!

You do have a point that the consequences of prolonged low oil prices will be severe. However, I don't agree that funding for the "usual expense" need necessarily come from more taxes.

One major area of improvement all Malaysians know about is simply a better management of the government's budget - just look at how every year the Auditor General's report shows so much of wastage, misallocation and downright squandering of taxpayers' money. So what better time than now for Malaysians to demand more transparency and accountability in public finances ?

Just think of it this way - you're in a boat with hundreds of leaks and that magic pail you've so long been depending on to bail out the water has gone missing and all you have now is a small mug. You don't have time to just make a dash to shore because your boat is sinking fast. So what do you do ? You move your butt from that comfy seat and start plugging the holes.

So no, that idea is not theoretical nor academic and certainly not philosophical - it's just plain good old fashioned common sense and very practical indeed.

We need to be less dependent on oil and gas and pay more attention to other industries. Just look at what's happening in Russia and Venezuela now.

venezuela condom price surge to $755usd , time for some entrepreneur to import more of our m'sian rubber there

"The $755 Condom Pack Is the Latest Indignity in Venezuela"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ty-in-venezuela

Brent crude hovered around $60 in Asia on Friday, up almost 4 percent this week as news of deeper industry spending cuts and a sinking U.S. dollar revived buying.

Wang Tao, a market analyst at Reuters, said Brent would test resistance at $63.40.

Asian markets were buoyed by news of a ceasefire in Ukraine and plans for a meeting between Greece officials and creditors.

German quarterly gross domestic product growth came in on Friday higher than forecast, potentially adding support to prices.

today:
oil usd54, usd1=rm 3.595.

maybe too early to say, but is rm now getting weaker despite oil some price recovery?

Crude oil is crude oil.
money is money.
They have 0 relation basically.

some so-called "oil analyzer" said that higher oil price = stronger ringgit

Analyzer is just a machine which are being controlled by speculators.

Financial analysts are humans too, so every finance news you read regardless of source, needs to be read with a good dose of critical thinking a.k.a pinch of salt.

Yup, but they are paid to cheat others.

Of course there is a relation. If perception is that Malaysia is dependent on oil revenue, and oil prices drop, what does that say about the economy and other fundamentals of the country?

Think about it from an investor point of view. What are you going to do if a country you are investing in, potentially is heading down south and even risks of a sovereign rating cut from the rating agencies?

What happened to the Russia ruble?