QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 7 2015, 08:49 AM)
yes, it was. i just don't remember how low except it was pegged at 3.80 eventually.
usd125bil.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves
before 1997, it was 2.50 for a long time, when sgd/rm = 1. now, sgd = rm2.67.
seems our gomen doesnt want the rm to appr but rather happy to see it depreciate in a controlled manner. if not,why wud bnm not intervene now with so much reserves... unless they want it that way - help exports which are hurting now. now, that in turn hurt the consumers having to pay higher prices in rm. even food and basic stuff, how much is produced locally, how much imported? my feeling is over the decades, we hv been producing less n less, importing more n more...? add base inflation, gst, etc = more pain!!
peg... if it is that easy, everyone will peg 1:1 to usd, everybody eat McD or huge steak for same price!!
an economy like many around the world, that consumes, use debt easily n quickly, waste resources, does not produce/export much, low productivity popn = eventually get a weak currency, people poor. compare usa/germany/south korea/singapore vs india/russia/turkey/argentina.
so... i see few reasons for rm to strengthen anytime soon. crude price recover... ya, maybe 1-2 yrs? meanwhile, i wud expect rm to decline further. 3.80 is not unreal, imo. and gomen may just be happy with it...?
SGD has moved away from RM 1:1 ratio very very long time ago, but US dollar to MYR exchange rate was around 2.3-2.7 most of the time until 1997 crisis. Then it dropped to a point even as low as 4.8. But after most foreign funds have pulled out of Malaysia, and analyzing the import and export balance, M'sia pegged the ringgit to 3.8 to put a stop to speculative forex trading. The ratio of 3.8 is not arbitrary, it depends on the current import and export level. If government has to do another peg in the future, no doubt these factors will be considered. And the peg can be changed if economic conditions changed, lets say oil price recovers and the export earnings > import expense.usd125bil.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves
before 1997, it was 2.50 for a long time, when sgd/rm = 1. now, sgd = rm2.67.
seems our gomen doesnt want the rm to appr but rather happy to see it depreciate in a controlled manner. if not,why wud bnm not intervene now with so much reserves... unless they want it that way - help exports which are hurting now. now, that in turn hurt the consumers having to pay higher prices in rm. even food and basic stuff, how much is produced locally, how much imported? my feeling is over the decades, we hv been producing less n less, importing more n more...? add base inflation, gst, etc = more pain!!
peg... if it is that easy, everyone will peg 1:1 to usd, everybody eat McD or huge steak for same price!!
so... i see few reasons for rm to strengthen anytime soon. crude price recover... ya, maybe 1-2 yrs? meanwhile, i wud expect rm to decline further. 3.80 is not unreal, imo. and gomen may just be happy with it...?
The problem with pegging is the foreign funds do not like the rate to be dictated by a government. So they will keep pushing government to remove it. If most of the foreign funds already left the country and there is too much speculative trading (such as those of you changing MYR to foreign currency for example), the government might peg the ringgit to stop the bleeding (because everytime one of you change MYR to foreign currency, it makes the ringgit drops further), and meanwhile the government is not concerned about foreign funds opinions because they hold little investment in the country anyway.
Jan 7 2015, 01:45 PM

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