Question to Dreamer and Avfan on the followings :-
(1) When would 1.4 million Malaysian civil servant faced the historical 1st retrenchment ?
The prime minister department received so much budget allocation so I want to see a reduction soonest.
(2) When would Petronas generate negative cashflow from its operation? Do you think Malaysia economy will have trade deficit in
2016 so as to create a double deficit in trade and service account ?
I expect RM4.5 to 1 USD and RM3.75 to 1 S$ by next year 2016 but depending on the (2) above the exact time is
no certain.
(3) What is the real inflation rate in 2015 ?

Summary of Today news report on Petronas as per described in attachment.

Petronas 1st 6 months net profit drop 43% to RM22.5 Billion.
Petronas has start using its internal reserve to pay the government RM13 billion ringgit
dividend being the 50% of 26 billion ringgit every year to pay for 1.4 million civil servants etc.

Petronas 1st 6 months turnover drop 28% to 61.3 Billion, Cashflow generated drop 33% to 17.2 Billion.

Petronas net asset stood at RM576 billion,debt ratio is 15.6%.

The other information is CIMB research stated that the trade surplus will stablize to RM30 billion
from RM47.3 billion.
Service account has outflow of RM15.7Billion in 1st quarter but 2nd quarter improve to inflow of RM8.5billion.
However, the 3rd quarter from July to Sept may have outflow of double of Jan.

Economic growth is revised downward to 4.9%.

This post has been edited by 2malaysia: Aug 16 2015, 02:06 AM


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Thus the
so called trade surplus in BNM statistic is incorrect. Because it has included offshore Malaysian held account that may never return to Malaysia.

Malaysia in fact has double deficit now in trade accounts and service account. if the above is taken into consideration.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 17 2015, 12:52 PM

I think for the USD to appreciate beyond RM4.5 to USD1, Malaysia economy has to show a trade deficit (import total more than export total ).

So my question is would it be possible for Malaysia to have a trade deficits ? So far CIMB bank research say not this year and the RM7.6Billion
trade surplus for Q2 in impressive...Reasons for trade account deficit can be commodity price slump, manufacturing sector scaled down or moved
out of Malaysia etc

Someone should also explain how BNM can compute trade balance in our GNP calculation. Cherroy say some point then refute it.
The govenment has hide government borrowing using Pembinaan PFI like paying rent on own properties, now they can manipulate trade balance too..

This post has been edited by 2malaysia: Aug 17 2015, 02:11 PM


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I am not seeing anything close to above in Selangor. Maybe in Penang but not in Selangor.