QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 9 2015, 03:33 PM)
Even you don't buy import items, there may be inflation on local export goods, (set aside the issue that we won't able to escape from import goods, as in today world it is impossible to be self sufficient in every aspect of goods and foods)
Eg.
Palm oil is produced here and an export item.
When USD vs Rm was RM3.00, palm oil price may be RM2000.
Now USD vs Rm become Rm3.80, there may be increase in demand for palm oil, as it become 20% cheaper.
Increase demand potential higher price.
So export items also may become expensive due to market force.
Goods price is not dictating locally nowadays but overall demand/internationally.
If local price is too low and not profitable as compared to a better price in export, business will export the goods or elsewhere that have better price, so you have no supply locally until local up the price.
Firstly,.. ther are things called export controls and excise taxes. Export contrls and Excise taxes ensure that the locals get the benefits of cheaper goods first before the foreign countries. However, again we go back to enforcement of the comtrols and the collection of such taxes. If enforcement is not good, the locals will stil not get the desired results.
The above controls are similar in principle to Import Duties being imposed to protect the local manufacturers.
"Now USD vs RM become Rm3.80, there may be increase in demand for palm oil, as it become 20% cheaper. Increase demand potential higher price."
I do not think the above can happen, why ? For in the first place the increased demand is not totally becos of true increasing needs of the commodity, rather it is an 'artificial' demand because of the exchange rate. Hence, higher price WILL NOT have a chance to kick-in. The moment the price tries to go up because the sellers are trying to mitigate the exchange rate problems caused by the dropping RM against the USD, the 'artificial' demand will disappear, causng the price to drop again.
Sellers wil want to up the price when the exchange rate goes against them,.. becos they are not stupid too. The sellers would know how to calculate in order to MAXIMISE their profits. Secondly, do not forget tht the ingredients required to produce the commodity may be imported. Using yr example here, it would be fertilizers. If the RM drops badly against many currency regimes, thn the cost of fertilzers wil go up, increasing the cost of producing the palm oil. Increased cost means need to sell at a higher price again.
This post has been edited by Hansel: Jul 9 2015, 11:33 PM