BNM has drawn a very clear line this week. They will defend RM at ~3.80 to USD.

When the market sees this intervention long enough, 3.80 will be set as a baseline. Confidence will be restored, and less people will rush to convert / speculate the RM

However, I think this is only short term. If the people managing the economy continue to stage monkey shows like what is going on now, then long term the fundamental of the economy will be affected and the real value of RM will plunge. 

If I were you, no hurry for the next few months. Take a look see position first. Keep in FD and earn some interest which may offset the depreciation. Eg. If you keep RM5.88 @ 4% in FD for 1 year, At the end of 1 year, it will grow to RM6.1152. In other words, even if GBP appreciate to 6.1152 1 year later, you will still breakeven

Ringgit likely to stay below 3.80 to US$
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...036;/?style=biz

SGD wil have its own 'right' to appreciate as high as it can against the RM becos the RM is NOT pegged to the SGD. The RM is pegged to the USD. Look back dring the 'USD-pegged years'. The SGD kept strnegthenng against the RM even though the RM stayed at 3.80 (interbank rate) against the USD.

Hi,

Just want to ask, we saw that bnm defended the ringgit at 3.8. So in the event US increase the rates, any chance it will go beyond 3.8?

Cause the way I am looking at is bnm won't let it go pass 3.8. But we all know that can only happen if bnm have enough foreign reserve.

Need your opinions

we have no idea what the fundamental of RM should be.
do we know?
Zeti said it's undervalued, but Zeti may not be faithful because of her position and responsibility for RM's stability.
Well, fundamental of Malaysia is the key factor to judge RM's fundamental.
Major concern for all of us today is political unstable and our inability to mature the level of corruption by government. 

so conclusion for myself is: i don't know. i've no idea.
therefore, what best for me is to diversified my assets under different currencies, now at USD and HKD, which is not very good because these two is kind of linked together actually. But in long term, I still see HKD moving towards RMB. In past 2-3 years, I have gradually moving my RM assets (stocks) into USD and HKD assets (stocks), now already reached 50:50. My target is continue moving out from RM, probably reaching 30:70 stage. Probably should start looking at emerging markets such as Vietnam and India.

Funny how, I am actually looking at Iskandar to be major beneficiary of Singapore. If Iskandar works out well, I should buy Singapore assets (stocks) instead of Iskandar assets. The best is that SGD is a great currency. 

Yes, that's right,.. do not hold foreign cash, especially from developed countries. But buy and hold foreign assets that provide income.

1.00 USD  = 3.78250 MYR 
Finally < 3.80 level

Perhaps u shld direct tis question to an astrologer

Monetary Authority of Singapore(MAS) to control well their inflation by hiking sgd, to makes their imported goods/product cheap there. But ppls there finds hard to survive and need to work beyond 65 yrs old retirement to live.

"forecasting the ringgit to weaken to 3.86 by end-2015 and 4.05 by end-2016 against the dollar"

 

Any effect if cabinet reshuffle?

How can one do that without actually working in The USA, or without working in a job that pays in USD, and without exporting goods to The USA and having the revenue banked into a bank account in The USA ?

3.82356 

Zeti has given up ?

usd (and by default, the rmb) keep rising, for reasons we already know.

if rm "pegged" at 3.81, it will rise against all other currencies too, incl the mighty yen... and euro.

oil price falling, there's nothing to "hike" the rm... still want it on par/rise against the 4 biggest economy currencies?

very disastrous if it falls off a cliff!

jeti does not matter more than jeep.

expect 3.85 next stop.

Other ways are also possible - investing in USD-denominated instruments that pay coupons and dividends in USD. Earn in USD, spend in cheaper Msia. Good arrangement, right ?

My conclusion is that Malaysia will go through a mild recession over the coming years. However, there won't be a major crash in the stock market or house price as predicted by some. Let's just be optimistic about the economy and MYR value. Remember, US creates one of the biggest financial crisis in the world when nobody is expecting it to come. Now that everybody is expecting Malaysia's to slump, how likely is it to happen?

what if there is a global stocks/financial crash? a bigger china crash?

can msia hold well?

Pretty agree what had posted, just there are 2 area that Malaysia is worst off than 1997

1. Fiscal deficit - during that time, Malaysia actually had budget surplus, instead of deficit currently.

2. As a result fiscal debt continously, Gov debt is at elevated level as compared, now is about 54% of GDP.
From 1990 to 1998, Gov debt was steady across around 100B
From 1998 to 2008, debt grew to around 200~300B
Now, about 500B.

So there is need to rectify the fiscal deficit situation.

do you see a chance in the next yr or 2 this deficit will be reduced?
i see it growing even faster - sustained low oil price, ge14 preparations coming.

the hardest hit ones are the older mid-low wage workers or retirees with small savings who don't get any help incl br1m.

actually, alto the rm is the worst performing currency in asia in 2014 and 2015 so far, it is not as bad as some others elsewhere.
considering the state of the currencies of similar commodity exporting nations with corruption and governance problems like brazil and turkey, it probably does not take a global meltdown to bring the rm to that level.

that was an old post form 6 mths ago. i think at that time, it was still widely thought that if a peg worked before, it can work again.
but of course, we know it is costly, risky and proven disastrous in many other cases.
the last 2 weeks... just my observation..., it seems bnm's been intervening to "peg" the rm not to the usd, but the sgd at 2.78. singapore is msia's 2nd largest trading partner, #1 being china (rmb pegged to usd) and usa #3.

7 months passed since this thread started.
so much has happened since then.
educational and fun reading back the posts of 6 months ago, incl the various "predictions".

to recap:

early jan 2015
crude price usd 48.00
rm/usd 3.56x
fx reserves usd112 bil
1mdb: not much known, confusion
bnm no action
overall rm expectations: can recover quickly, "3.73 max"
aug 2, 2015
crude price usd 46.78
rm/usd 3.831
fx reserves usd 100 bil
1mdb: u already know
bnm intervention since june 2015
overall expectations: ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMYR:CUR
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...of-intervention
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves

big question now is what happens next, by year end, next year...?

the rm issue is a major one as it affects everyone's wallet. keep sharing your thoughts, facts and other info!

If bank negara never kacau the market, anything can happen

Come 'mon.. let it happen. 3.95 3.97... bam 4.0 then let's cover. 

Which one?