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 ringgit Malaysia drop , how to I change my RM to USD

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Showtime747
post Aug 11 2015, 07:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 11 2015, 07:18 PM)
so, you bought aud or not today?

i took yr advice to buy a bit of sgx stocks today.

rate should be 2.840. now it's showing 2.861.

looks like any currency u buy now, it's ok. tongue.gif
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No I didn't buy anything today tongue.gif This morning, AUD drop to 2.89xx, SGD 2.82xx. But quickly went up

Last week, was expecting Aud to drop further, but BANG !! it went up instead. I actually missed the SGD/AUD parity because I didn't return call to my bank RM. Was asking her to call me if it went parity. Missed the boat sad.gif

I think the whole of malaysia demoralised with US$/RM4. Very malu and angry. Everyone I met also Ptui Ptui Ptui ! tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 11 2015, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(adam1122 @ Aug 11 2015, 07:49 PM)
Is Malaysian Ringgit dropping a good or bad thing?
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From the man on the street point of view, everything imported and also Malaysia manufactured goods which use imported parts will increase in price. Ie. Your purchasing power is reduced ---> lower living standard

Definitely a bad thing for ordinary people

But business which export will make more RM selling overseas ---> good for bosses and government who collect more tax from these businesses

Are you a ordinary people or a boss who export overseas ?
Showtime747
post Aug 11 2015, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 11 2015, 08:56 PM)
aud is highly dependent on iron ore exports to china.

china isn't going to buy more so soon, rmb just devaluated.

i doubt the aud can stay strong for too long, will have to adjust soon, imo.
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Market always give surprises. With sudden twist of events, everything will turn 180 degree over night.

If suddenly Iran fires a nuclear bomb into Saudi Arabia tonight, next morning oil price will shoot up to $100 and suddenly RM become 3.30

Anything can happen tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 06:41 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 11 2015, 09:51 PM)
actually, i m curious what are the biz that have >90% cogs local rm sourcing and >90% usd revenues...?

gloves n condoms come to mind but isn't much of the latex now imported from thailand? thai baht isn't cheap anymore.

local fruits, maybe... but that is miniscule, no?

belacan, chili, sauces... not much i think, thailand's got a lot lot more going.

overall, not much, not many "bosses" laughing to the bank, no?
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Maybe difficult to find business with >90% COGS local components because business now is global it may be cheaper to get imports. But there are companies which are mainly export oriented in USD like CPO, O&G, agri base like fruits, manufacturing like IT service, electronics.

Economics fundamental shows we have a current account surplus. So, export > import and RM should appreciate gradually as demand of RM > supply. But the real situation is doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif

Zeti also give up already tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Aug 12 2015, 06:42 AM
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 10:19 AM)
yes, i am aware of o&g and cpo exporters - it's really only petronas and the large plantations. usd yes, but falling prices and demand... net earnings in rm also drop badly. if not, petronas won't be cutting dividends to putrajaya.

others... i think all very small. so, there really is little joy in the statement "exporters are happy".

current/trade account surplus - primarily driven by bigger reductions in imports. this can become a problem later - shortage of certain goods.
zeti will speak tmrw. i doubt she has much to say except the usual, "undervalued".
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/308181
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Ya, if you talk about the whole of malaysia, only the selected few lucky ones benefit from the RM depreciation.

Minister talks about tourism, which only benefit the bosses in the tourism business if more tourists visit malaysia. They don't sell stuff based on US$, but still in RM. If tourist number don't increase, they don't gain anything. We have to wait for the tourist number statistics to come out to prove lower RM actually benefits tourism

For business, yes you are right. RM depreciate but at the same time crude oil and CPO price drop also, so what benefit is there for the big companies ?

I have a business which export to china. Initially late last year beginning this year we gain on weak ringgit. Profit doubled. But the last few months, the sales really slow down and we were only gaining on the exchange rate. Sales volume has come down. Still ok, but not as good as before when china market is still good.

I am sure there are businesses which enjoy the RM depreciation like those glove, electronics etc companies, but I feel that would be the minority.

Whereas for the average malaysian, their standard of living will be lowered. RM will buy less things in the near future. Wawasan 2020 need another 5-10 years only can achieve
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 03:41 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 11:34 AM)
from the horse's mouth, this confirms what cnbc, bloomberg and forbes been reporting. thumbup.gif

what is unclear to me now is with the yuan devaluation and weak china factories, what will the final impact on the rm as china is msia's largest trading partner.

with sgd now at 1.41, and sg being major trading partner with both msia and china, i see more downside in the coming days for the mr vs usd.

now, is bnm still intervening and try to cap at 4.0?

that's the question, isn't it?
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CNY down, MYR follows down too tongue.gif Not much net effect between the two

I don't think BNM has the bullet to intervene anymore. They are helpless
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 12 2015, 03:54 PM)
It is best interest for BNM not to intervene too much, especially in this kind of sold down across Asian region currency due to Yuan depreciating.

Try to intervene to counter the market force, wasting the precious foreign currency reserves only.
Even Sgd also goes down against USD.
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Ya, free market is most efficient.

But they wasted >$10b reserve and yet ringgit drop from 3.80 to 4.00. The $10b could have solved 1MDB's problem (j/k tongue.gif )

If they allow ringgit to move freely, they should not intervene in the first place. And saved $10b

I think when the reserve dropped to $96b, they knew their reserve is not enough to fight the market forces, so they stopped. If the reserve touches $90b or $80b, the RM sell off will be even worse

So, as much as they want to stabilize their currency, they run out of bullet and surrender

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Aug 12 2015, 06:55 PM
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 07:06 PM)
as the world gets globalized and money and information goes at speed of light, the idea of pegging and intervention is way past obsolete.

such futile attempts will only hurt you more.

even the russians did not try - they know "resistance is futile", so they just managed with interest rates while expecting the economy to slump, which it did - in recession now.

worse cases - venezuela, ukraine and greece... which u already know.

i am not sure our menteris understand it. tongue.gif
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So they wasted $10b of the country's reserve. That is close to the $11b 1MDB owed

Zeti should resign and strip off the "A+ banker" medal she received for the past few years tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 07:20 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 07:16 PM)
no, i dun blame zeti.

she did what is expected of her - from the cabinet and the people at large - to try.

but i think she knows it will not work.

more so when there is no way to know what the largest central bankers in usa, eu, china and japan will do.

did not u not read the numerous posts saying "we can peg", "we have plenty of reserves", "this is not 1997" and "even soros dare not come"?!!
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Ya with all the monkeys looking over her shoulder, I pity her position actually

Some more with the $700m transfer....really give her a hard time as a central banker
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 12 2015, 10:09 PM)
How you know $10bn reserve was used to buy myr and not for certain bond or unit?
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You may want to ask these two media if you have information contrary to theirs.

Do update us after you query them thumbup.gif

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia...-reserves-slump


http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ringgit-slumps/


Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Aug 12 2015, 10:19 PM)
I don't think there is anyone in any central bank who believes they can stabilize their currency.

It is pretty well known that central banks ability to influence their currency's exchange rate versus the market, is very limited. Apart from pegging.

The only exception is probably the Federal Reserve, but that's not so much due to them but the fact that their currency is effectively a world standard.
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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 12 2015, 10:26 PM)
To be fair, BNM also cannot do nothing if speculators start to pile up against your currency.
Need to give "warning" to market, "don't play too far".

We do not know how much exactly was used to "defend" the RM at Rm3.80.

With capital flight from stock market and bond market, the foreign currency reserves surely will go down, as those capital when remit out, they will drain the the BNM foreign currency reserves.
Investors sell off share or bond, take RM in cash, go to bank to exchange to USD, then BNM needs to use the USD in foreign currency reserves to pay them.
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I agree it is a tall order for a central bank to defend its currency using purely its reserve.

It is more towards psychology played on the currency traders. To smooth out the price, central bank gives warning to the traders that they will defend the currency, so please don't mess with me or you will lose out. I have 100b in the bank, how much do you have to fight me ?

Its like the Stabilising Manager in a IPO. If the forces go against the company, nothing can stop it. What it does is just give confidence to the investors and hopefully they believe and will not create a wave to sell down below the IPO price.

But on hindsight, BNM loss out to the market forces despite good economics fundamental and a fresh clean bill of healthy report card from Fitch Rating
Showtime747
post Aug 12 2015, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 12 2015, 11:43 PM)
The market misread economic fundamental or clean bill of healthy report card is not exactly clean?
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I find that you are often not confident with your own comment. You can always state your opinion instead of phrasing your sentences in question form.

Just make your stance clear. Say what you want to say. I am perfectly ok with you disagreeing with me
Showtime747
post Aug 14 2015, 11:53 AM

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History repeats. IIRC, prior to RM being pegged at 3.80 and capital control implemented during Asian Financial Crisis, there was a short period of time where RM depreciated very quickly to 4.8

It happens again now. We will remember this experience 10-20 years down the road tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 14 2015, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 11:52 AM)
and where is our FINANCE MINISTER?
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Please be considerate. I am looking after my chair, which may collapse anytime soon. Do you expect me to take care of you while I can't even take care of my own problem ?

tongue.gif tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 14 2015, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(anudora @ Aug 14 2015, 11:36 AM)
Many still do not understand the implication of yesterday zeti press announcement. It is huge!
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Ya, do explain. I BTC cannot read between Zeti's lines
Showtime747
post Aug 14 2015, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(anudora @ Aug 14 2015, 01:25 PM)
read between the lines......................................as an investor.
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doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif
Showtime747
post Aug 15 2015, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 15 2015, 05:50 PM)
I thnk we need more details on this withdrawal limitation. Is it per day, per person, over-the counter only, TT or what else ? I have predicted earlier to my family that the effects from the Greek fallout could hit Malaysians in the same way. This is now coming true. Greece was Eur 60 per day per person.
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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 15 2015, 05:52 PM)
Better let the money stay offshore. JUst read in the threads that banks are beginning to limit withdrawals already.
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If you know why Greece impose withdrawal limits, then you will know what you said is not true.

That is because Greece cannot print Euro, while Malaysia can print their own RM

Don't believe everything you read. Take a minute to think it over and you will not post what you have posted above
Showtime747
post Aug 16 2015, 08:00 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 15 2015, 10:27 PM)
Do not be mis0construed in your comments, Showtime,... come on,... what nonsense are you talking about ? I would expect better of a forummer like you. Malaysia can print their own RM ???? Sure, theoretically,... but once this is known to the rest of the world, we are doomed, okay ? I do NOT believe blindly in everything I read,... I think it over first. It is you, instead who is believing in everything you read, including theoretical international finance, as in Msia being able to print its own RM. Sure, yes, theoretically, for not bound by any regional bank, as in the ECB. But practically,... you know better.

Please do not judge blindly.
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The more you wrote, the more you expose yourself you have very little knowledge on economics.

Cherroy has explained what you need to know. Google more if you still do not understand

Don't be so defensive when people pointed out your mistake. He is actually spending time teaching you. You are actually benefitting
Showtime747
post Aug 16 2015, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Aug 16 2015, 12:16 AM)
Folks,

It is not exactly correct that BNM can print unlimited RM. 30% of THE GOVERNMENT's debt is held by FOREIGNER.  If BNM, print more RM, RM will devalue.  BNM has to raise interest rate or FOREIGNER will not buy more GOVERNMENT's debt and /or sell existing GOVERNMENT's debt.  If THE GOVERNMENT imposed capital control, FOREIGNER will not buy additional GOVERNMENT's debt.

THE GOVERNMENT's deficit spending had reached a point where it need financing from FOREIGNER.  It can no longer be financed solely by cash flow from EPF contribution.

Enjoy the show!!!

"Don't worry, be happy!!"

"Not too bad!!"

There will be enough DUMMIES investing in ASx to cover this holes because of the high dividend rate.

Dreamer
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Unker,

The rumour says that "the bank is imposing rm3k withdrawal limit" like what Greece did. That rumour never thought of the difference in central bank's function of Malaysia and Greece.

Malaysia can print money, Greece cannot. So the rumour is busted

RM devaluation is just the collateral damage of printing money. But if Malaysia want to, BNM can print unlimited RM, just like Zimbabwe.
Showtime747
post Aug 16 2015, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 16 2015, 12:50 AM)
so... can't print easy, can't borrow easy, largest funds cashflow not enough, petronas $ not enough...

what do u think might be some of the things a gomen in that situation will do?
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Not their concern at the moment. Their concern now is their chair in the office.

If they don't take care of their chair in the office now, soon they have to worry about the chair in prison cell

If I am in their situation, I would have done the same thing tongue.gif

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