best if currency drop.. hope will drop until 4.5=1usd
the more forex profit i can get

May 2013... USD 1 = MYR 3.00. It did dips lower than that for few weeks...

Wehave a divergnce here:-

For a possible UP-RATNG from Fitch, the following factors can be considred :-

Surplus from Tourism, export of commodities and electronic sectors from weak currency that also contributing a lot % in country GDP.

And for a possible DOWN-RATING frm Fitch, the following factors accordingly :-

GDP for 2nd Q is highly to be weak, poor consumer sentiment, poor sales recorded in most company (can be seen on many listed company turnover), as well as both import and export figure shrinking.

Fitch has a forward-looking policy, hence wht happens in future wil also be takn into account. Lets see.

Hoping all forummers here can help to keep track on the result from Fitch too. Lets see how this ratng moves the RM vs the SGD and the USD.

As I write this now, the RM remains the same and is rangebound against the SGD and the USD compared to yesterday.

Financial market (be it currency, stock market, bonds) is a forward looking mechanism.
It won't wait until the news come out, only it start to move.

It moves way ahead on anticipation of events.

The RM movement to the downside recent is more and less taking cue of potential downgrade and other negative factor already, aka forward looking mechanism.
That's why we see weak RM currently.

Weak currency won't able to boost certain export product, eg. oil.
As oil is traded in USD, Malaysia export oil won't be cheaper than other even though RM plunge to RM4.00 vs USD.
Just oil export company may gain extra profit if they converted the USD into RM.
While if they don't convert back to RM and the profit made in USD needed to repay borrowing in USD or funding capital expenditure etc, the weak RM has no effect on this scenario.

Malaysia economy is not the like 80's or 90's, whereby export industry was the major GDP contributor at that time.
Now, domestic consumption starts to grow quite significantly over the last decade and becoming one of major GDP contributor.
Hence if RM is too weak, it can hurt domestic consumption.

There is a limit that a weak currency can propel the export. As if this theory is right, Zimbabwe should be doing extremely well in export.

So the balance must get it right. Too strong, not good, too weak, also not good.

Fitch is the smallest among the credit rating agencies.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Three_(cr...ating_agencies)
What if Fitch downgrade while the other two maintain present rating.. No big impact .. minus a grade ( Marginal ) by Fitch
while another 2x big brothers holds it.

Normally, these figures understate the dominance of Moody's and S&P, since the norm for debt issuers is to obtain ratings from these two, and only occasionally turn to Fitch, for example if Moody's and S&P disagree ONLY. Fitch is plays certain role.
And not Very important role.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jun 17 2015, 06:42 PM

2 things that will impact the rm in the coming weeks/months:

rm drop lagi!!!! ho-seh la

USD 1 = MYR 3.73

1 : 3.7135

I'm waiting for it to hit 3.68 if possible.. then I'm going to big time short the ringgit (per my standard is big time la ).... whack 10 lots to start...

This post has been edited by MeToo: Jun 18 2015, 02:11 PM

It is very common, as USA Federal Reserve will plan to hike interest rate beginning Sept 2015 gradually.
No big surprise for you as USD will continue uptrend against major currencies, not only RM..
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102761954 See the expert point of views.

PM relieved seeing it recover abit

1 USD= RM 3.71

The question is how big is the sum you are having?

The bigger question is.... where u gonna keep the money? Under your pillow?

i am just a 'runcit' mentality!!! change to usd now, hug them in my bolster while i pen down my asia travel plans over the next 5-7yrs. spike my travelling budget & spending power ie usd vs rupiah/bath/dong/yen .

You lost 4% interest per year... so u have to make sure USD rise more then 4% per year...

yes, agreed but this 4% is actually a gain in rm-numeric only but depreciates in spending power. unless yearly you downgraded from local holiday in langkawi(2016), melaka (2017), taiping (2018), batu pahat (2019) then kampung melati (2020)...so on. with a start which can afford 4-star hotel, two years later, can only afford hostel.

with usd vs rm/rupiah/dong/yen etc moving in opposite directions, i opt to stuff my bolster with usd and spend it yearly across asia

You dont get it.

I was going to leave it at that... but...

You see...

U have RM now... either u put it in savings or change to USD.

If u change it to USD, and keep it in your house. THe money doesnt generate any interest, at best it appreciates (MAYBE).

If you have kept your RM, it generates interest.

Hence, to make it worthwhile, the appreciation of your USD (in your pillow) must be MORE then 4% per year, which is the current interest by the banks.

If the appreciation is LESS, then you are losing out.

This post has been edited by MeToo: Jun 18 2015, 05:08 PM

yes, i totally agree with you. i understand. its just that i opt to do both. just a portion (to me, just a sum of my 7yrs travel budget fr rm into usd into my pillow now and surely portions for the 'blue' and others generating mode.

p/s when aud 2.6++ in-sight, i am sure to stuff some under my pillow too..hahaaa

BTW, BNM X usd notes direct deposits, need to convert. but in sin, you can bring your pillow stuffed in usd notes to bank & deposit them, small interest tho!! if big amt, why not!!

This post has been edited by vincentwmh: Jun 18 2015, 05:24 PM