the key danger now is 1mdb loans.

from the way the last int payment was made, high chance it will default eventually given shadowy secretive unexplained stories climaxing now.

question is what impact it will hv on other loans, other banks, mgs, bursa.

the fact they the politicians keep harping "no systematic risk" tells u it is a n issue, however small it may seem then or now.



while we wait for bnm fx data today:

usd/myr 4.257

there isn't much confidence among investors and world community, is there?

that is a manifestation of decades of weak education and policies.

the inability to look upward aspiring to be better than the best but instead, find a place among the worst and be happy with it.

if true, this does not bode well - putrajaya having cashflow problems...

gomen can set example by instructing 1mdb to redeem their foreign "units" and mara to sell the props in oz/uk, repatriate the money. these are big $.

are they doing that?

some menteris spewing garbage non-stop is understandable as they are either incompetent in the subject or simply saving their own skin.

but u wud think wahid in pm's dept, ex-mbb chief is a veteran banker, knows it all. but all i get from him is same "all is good".

pm dept's idris jala in his shell and mas days must have see enough oil and fx activity and risks.

zeti in bnm had said "no systematic risk" and then clammed up.

only nazir on some new economic committee has been raising alarm bells.

so, experience or not, it appears not to matter.

begats the question if there's anyone making any major decisions or we are all simply on auto-pilot now.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 4 2015, 01:40 PM

extracted from that report below.

now we know:
electrical/electronics exports at 37% is by far the largest export.
oil/gas/petroleum products at 12.7% is 2nd.
palm oil at 9% is 3rd.
timber is not big, rubber is small.

if prices of commodities petroleum and palm oil stay low, only an excellent electrical/electronics sector can help in a signifcant way.

anyone with good info about such new factories/expansion or closures in penang or elsewhere?

therefore, no easy way out.



i wonder what would be the situation in say, thailand?

would it be correct to say there is huge savings in oil/gas/petroleum imports that far outweighs the loss in other exports?

plus big tourist $. all that keeping the baht strong?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 4 2015, 05:15 PM

no change, i.e bnm NOT intervening.

bnm clerk mistake.

eh, such news very hard to come by, at least a bit of celebration!


usd/rm 4.256

yes, mgs 10 yr yield not rising further for now, closed at 4.20%.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

4.25-4.30 may be the "right and stable" range for a while.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 4 2015, 07:04 PM

now... what if gomen issues another rm50bil in the coming year to deal with deficit?

budget 2016 coming in oct...

apparently, rest of the world is unimpressed with rise in fx reserves.

usd/myr 4.28
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=12h

0020 hrs 4.30160

large mfg mnc's may benefit from the lower rm to incr profits, but if they are not expanding, it does little to help incr jobs or raise income for the local employees.

on the other hand, sme's trading with primarily imported intermediate goods in usd will find it difficult to continue. an sme having a simple biz model of cogs:overheads:profit of 60:20:20 finding a 33% rm depreciation will then hv 80:20:0. they will either have to cut staff or close shop. one explanation for potential jobs lost in the coming year.

overall, i can't see any real net benefit for the people despite claims "weak rm good for exports"!

if prolonged, this new cashflow problem will force lower inventories, tight supplies, prices will be forced up - more trouble for many sme's.

at 4.50, a 40% rm depr will be even more devastating on biz and employment - a recession will be imminent.

for older salaried workers and pensioners, their retirement will be dark n gloomy.

Again, hearing from the horse's mouth, the chain effect has already begun.

Tough days ahead for all.

by bnm regulation, rm is not traded outside msia, traded only locally during normal hrs.

bnm figures are official, as of 5pm every working day; bloomberg follows bnm.

but there are other contracts involving rm traded in'tlly elsewhere.

gives a good indication what it will be the next msia trading day, can fluctuate a lot.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=12h


3 weeks ago, i know a fren opened a multi currency account.

best to speak to yr bank.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 5 2015, 07:20 PM

this time, it is not speculators.

there has been no report of such.

moreover, thai baht and filipino peso are holding very well.

it is simply a lack of confidence, for reasons we already know.

that is actually something i am concerned about.

if a lot of the sme's fail or start downsizing, a lot of people will become jobless.

glc's may hold better, but won't be spared as we are already seeing in the banking sector.

the private sector will be in bad shape.

and there isn't room to expand the public service, is there?

lastly, can't imagine what will happen then to the few million foreign workers...

that's touching on the prospect of a recession!

among the first to "sob" - builders.