QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 18 2015, 10:42 AM)
Ya, I wonder the economist is doing something to hedge the position, like shorting FKLI.
If the economist's prediction is true, then he/she may make a big kill in the market.
Short 100 contracts of FKLI if the recession is indeed worst than 1997, it just suggests KLCI may drop more than 50%.
50% drop from 1600 level, means 800 points.
800 points x Rm50 = 40K per contract.
100 contract x 40k = RM 4 mil.
Don't need to so troublesome to convert to USD, sell car or property, just pick up the phone tell remisier want to sell FKLI for 100 contracts, done.

This round recession will be caused by China and not USA. China is repeating what US did last recession in 2008. Lowering interest rates, lowering the required amount to hold in banks, etc. No doubt US cant raise interest rates because of this, but Malaysia is caught between lower exports to China and currency devaluation. So lower currency is good for export, but sucks if we spend it overseas. Whereas, if the country wants to strengthen the economy, they have to raise interest rates to stamp the MYR devaluation.
Currently, I'm seeing MYR reach 4.5 against the USD over a medium period. Dont let those temporary rebound distract you. Luckily I bought some Euro and USD in hard currency when USD was 3.7. At least my next year's holiday wont feel so painful.
No doubt you can short during this period, but I'll just watch from the sideline. My CIMB trading account locked ady cause I pull out my cash earlier this year and havent log in to play shares (due to foreseeable crash that happened lately) and recently when I login again, I forgot my password and attempted to login 3 times wrongly LOL.