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 Fundsupermart.com v8, The MS Excel Masterclass version!

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xuzen
post Jan 3 2015, 10:56 PM

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As for me I am under weighting my M'sia equity exposure. The downward pressure in oil price increases its downside risk.

I am putting my money into India (cheap oil price will be beneficial to an oil importing country like India) & US (to catch on its upward price momentum).

I am also increasing my REITs exposure and a low volatility Asia-Pac x-Jp equities which forms my core portfolio.

NB: India and US is part of my satellite portfolio and is mainly to generate alpha.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 6 2015, 02:27 PM

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My feeling is if you read and follow their article all this while, you too can speak and talk like a fund manager wink.gif

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 11 2015, 09:49 PM

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using CAGR alone is like looking at a 2D picture. The third dimension i.e. risk aka stad-dev, although please note that some modern academics use downside semi-deviation should be incorporated into the portfolio construction.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 16 2015, 10:50 PM

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My portfolio consist of five funds and they are all in positive category, except Bolehland small cap.

Bye bye Bolehland.... I have even sold off all my favorite Lee Sook Yee fund. No emotional attachment; when it is time to sell, it is time to sell.

I am invested in SenSexy (India), Asia-Pac xJP, REITS, US equities and some small % in Eastspring small cap.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 16 2015, 10:52 PM
xuzen
post Jan 16 2015, 10:54 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 16 2015, 10:52 PM)
Oi! What happened to your faith in Ms Lee? tongue.gif
And that Bolehland-delivers-the-alpha thingy? rolleyes.gif

So, at the end it's Mr Chen 1:0 Ms Lee? laugh.gif
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it is Bolehland deliver beta, not alpha lar!

I don't know, maybe my beloved Ms Lee on leave or something coz her fund is koyak liao... tak boleh pakai for the time being.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 16 2015, 11:22 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 16 2015, 11:00 PM)
Aiya, whatever lar, I'm not good with all these Greek words! tongue.gif

Ppl say...Ms Lee is taking over the throne of an empire built by Mr Chen...
Now that Mr Chen is gone, Ms Lee's regime dunno how to handle catastrophes tongue.gif
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Let me educate you:

Alpha: absolute return. To layman that is the ROI.

Beta: measure of risk usually use one standard deviation although some smart-Alec at Morgan Stanley Investment bank used only downside risk and hence called it semi-deviation.

Delta: the related coefficient of the derivative product against the mother or underlying asset it is derived from

Gamma: The rate of change of the derivative product price against the underlying asset price movement.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 17 2015, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 16 2015, 11:26 PM)
hmm.gif

Investopedia:

Alpha:
A measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. Alpha takes the volatility (price risk) of a mutual fund and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. The excess return of the fund relative to the return of the benchmark index is a fund's alpha.
In simple term - Outperformance

Beta:
Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of beta as the tendency of a security's returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security's price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means that the security will be less volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market.
In simple term - Correlation to market

Tarak betul? unsure.gif
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I'll go with investopaedia... my explaination is very layman.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 17 2015, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(infernoaswen @ Jan 17 2015, 11:37 AM)
India is doing good, I just bought this last month during the 1% promo laugh.gif

Bolehland fund on the other hand is what I lost the most  doh.gif But it recovered a bit for the past few days, before this was around -7%  laugh.gif 

Edit: still new, got lots to learn  tongue.gif

[attachmentid=4304616][attachmentid=4304627]
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Me too.... I have also went into India. The fund may have moved and some said I may be late in catching the wind. However, my take is that India is a net importer of oil and as long as oil stays low, their business cost will go down making their bottom line attractive. And also don't forget the Modi effect and his pro-business policies.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 19 2015, 11:58 PM

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UT are designed so that normal people can participate in equity returns without the technical hassle, so that normal people can do normal stuff.

The way you guys go abt UTC is like those religious zealots!

Salute!

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 24 2015, 11:10 AM

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Is it just me or do you guys notice the UT are mostly green again after the blood bath in Qtr4Yr2014.

All mine are green and a portfolio gain of 2.7% since Dec 14 (was in negative territory in Dec).

Xuzen


xuzen
post Jan 24 2015, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Jan 24 2015, 11:24 AM)
no fun.. green je.. sweat.gif
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Sensexy is green, Asia-Pac XJp is green, REITs is green, even Bolehland is green. Only US is slightly pink.....

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(woonsc @ Jan 27 2015, 12:22 AM)
SenSEX  wub.gif  wub.gif 
boasted my overall IRR to 8.66%  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
*
Gives a fist bump to Brudder Woon!

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(woonsc @ Jan 27 2015, 11:11 AM)
*Bump!
laugh.gif  How many percentage of your portfolio?

This is a seasonal fund.. when exit need tell me ya~  laugh.gif
*
This is part of satellite portfolio... not my core port. It is one quarter of my total equity exposure.

I look at its sharpe... as long as >1.5 I will be be exposed to it. Will shout out to you when I exit my position. Watch this space.

Xuzen

p/s Party time is here again rclxm9.gif .

During the blood bath in Qtr4-Yr2014 all the markets are red, i.e., no place was safe, all sectors and geographical areas were red (except for PONZI v.2). what a ride.

But on reflection, in the whole of 2014, my port was doing well for at least 3 Qtr, and onely one qrt did it suffer.



This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 27 2015, 01:59 PM
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 02:05 PM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Jan 27 2015, 01:55 PM)
hmm.gif when the Sharpe are published, will it be too late? and by the time he noticed you shouting in here...lagi late?
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UT price movement (volatility) is not that great compared to the direct exposure. Being invested means one should take one some form of calculated risk. You cannot completely avoid risk, or else you will just have to buy money market and be contented with 3.6% p.a.

No, it is not too late, UT should be like sitting in a plane, you let the fund manager pilot it and you get out when you reach your destination. In the mean time, you monitor the pilot's skill against other airlines. When there is a better pilot flying the same route with the same ticket price.. you jump ship/plane.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 02:09 PM

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QUOTE(woonsc @ Jan 27 2015, 01:58 PM)
blink.gif  blink.gif  a quarter  blink.gif  blink.gif
Woah.. that's like a core.. haha i read satellite is around <15%
thx sifu~  notworthy.gif
I am always active here...
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My core is 45% (REITS) of my port. 15% bolehland (used to be > 50%, before the oil price decline) and 15% @ US. Just in case you don't know, I use algorithmic programming to determine my asset allocation using the Markowitz Portfolio Theory.

Xuzen


xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 27 2015, 02:16 PM)
What do u think of Europe?

Shane Oliver (see my previous post) of AMP bullish
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I am neutral on Europe. My UTCM's CIO also concur. The published figures does not excite neither me nor him.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 27 2015, 02:30 PM
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 27 2015, 02:31 PM)
xuzen's post is so dry...almost press conference Q&A-like... sweat.gif

Only Ms Lee wub.gif could excite him laugh.gif
*
Ms Lee? Siapa dia? tongue.gif

Xuzen

p/s I have zero exposure to Europe.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 27 2015, 02:42 PM
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jan 27 2015, 05:01 PM)
I first time heard programing in asset allocation.

Mind to share  tongue.gif
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I will be as general as possible... it is using a predetermined set of parameters and imputed into a preset sequence of decision trees to come to an optimal risk adjusted return portfolio.

in layman talk, it is trying very hard to be si peh kiasi & kiasu as much as possible!

BTW, the few earlier post pink, WMK, polarbearz were talking abt excel this excel that... I also pusing kepala rclxub.gif

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Jan 27 2015, 05:59 PM)
OMG so high tech!!! I dunno what is that also... sad.gif
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That is because it is a programming I created myself, to help me do asset allocation in a more scientific method.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jan 27 2015, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jan 27 2015, 07:02 PM)
meanz you key identify all the fund asset geographic location.
*
geographic location, different sector and asset class. The key is to identify different assets that are most uncorrelated as much as possible that are available to the investor. Then look at their risk adjusted return ( e.g. Sharpe ratio) and optimize it using my algo programming.

Xuzen

No excel to share. Not intended for public sharing.
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