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 Traders Kopitiam! V6

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TakoC
post Dec 18 2014, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 18 2014, 11:26 AM)
In this low priced oil environment, the first to idle will be drilling rigs as they are for exploration not production.

Production projects will likely continue even as oil prices is very low, as they are sunk costs, so they will need the cashflow to keep the company afloat. The majority of cost per barrel is exploration and capex required to build production. The actual production cost once everything is in place is very cheap ~ $10 only.

In cash crunch time exploration will always be the first to be idled as it can always be deferred to better times to maintain cashflow. Next to go down will be capex for NEW production, which will be the MOPU, OSV and FPSO's.

The assets already in production, will be last to go idle as these are money earning assets unless the company close shop.  tongue.gif

So... production > capex > exploration
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I have a different view on this.

CAPEX spending for example is needed before production can be started. All the CPP for example, that's CAPEX. All of those needed to be awarded by the giant, constructed before new production can start.

So my view is that CAPEX spending will be cut first, meaning delaying the new production before existing production is cut.

Depending on what type of production, marginal fields can be expensive after factoring the fee paid to the operators of the field.

This post has been edited by TakoC: Dec 18 2014, 12:53 PM
TakoC
post Dec 24 2014, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Dec 18 2014, 12:50 PM)
I have a different view on this.

CAPEX spending for example is needed before production can be started. All the CPP for example, that's CAPEX. All of those needed to be awarded by the giant, constructed before new production can start.

So my view is that CAPEX spending will be cut first, meaning delaying the new production before existing production is cut.

Depending on what type of production, marginal fields can be expensive after factoring the fee paid to the operators of the field.
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gark I'm waiting for your view in reply to your post #1202
TakoC
post Jan 13 2015, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 13 2015, 10:59 AM)
wat's wtk? ok, later go study...
what else are on your watch list?
never knew presbhd fly so high, shouldn't have sold it yesterday. sigh.........
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PRES might have announcement coming few days I suspect.
TakoC
post Jan 13 2015, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(tehoice @ Jan 13 2015, 02:55 PM)
what announcement? the price is 1.8x already... gosh.....  cry.gif

what's the tp for your hovid guys?
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Pres like homer. Share price fly for the past few days. Not only today. Let's wait announcement..
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 10:50 AM)
So secretive...  hmm.gif

Now all the people see the surge and gonna buy in blindly.. no knowing that price of oil is still very weak..  sweat.gif

Potential ikan bilis trap at this level if you ask me..
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what Boon say is right.
Sometimes people rush to buy, but price dip even further.
Sometimes people kiasu want wait drop a few cent more, price shoot up, then people rush to buy. gg doh.gif
didn't buy, surge more then say chicken run.
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 10:55 AM)
So.... conclusion is?

If cannot handle the roller coaster and emotion plus having no conviction better don't trade stocks.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Conclusion is.. if you buy correctly then bonus lo.
Otherwise, people come here and say chicken run la.. should have waited more la..
Uzma down a lot... I didn't collect. SKP down a lot I also didn't collect.
Wait for what.. I dunno sweat.gif
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 19 2015, 11:02 AM)
Conclusion - u can never guess Mr Market

As Stephen Chow say...

"If u can guess my actions, ppl still call me God of Cookery?!" cool2.gif

tongue.gif
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Don't need guess 100% correct want. If can guess a few correct, got earn money and return in the end quite satisfactory then bonus lo.
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 11:05 AM)
You have conviction at other thread.. about low PE and big cap stock..

Then why did not buy?  tongue.gif
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Cash all tied up. Invest small small better don't invest la.

But seriously, I like it. Over the long terms I foresee it to perform well.

Fund manager will likely to collect it back, so I believe we can see the stock moving upwards also. Last time off syariah list + the oil price everyone hard selling. When all fund manager was selling SKPETRO, if you track closely they substitute it with UMWOG. The following month, can see there's more buying interest in SKPETRO.


TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 11:11 AM)
SKP and UMWOG is in different segments..

SKP do everything under the sun..

UMWOG is dealing mostly with drilling rigs... which will be first to die in low oil price environment due to less exploration  tongue.gif

You missing another segment.. FPSO.. which has went up nearly 25% from bottom, due to multi year guaranteed contract less affected by oil price..  brows.gif
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Yes, but every fund have a sector exposure to maintain.

When it dropped off the syariah list, syariah funds have a few months to dump it and hence they need rebalance it. It was UMWOG and Dialog (tank terminal operator - different segments also).

I don't like FPSO business. Hence no Yinson and Bumi Armada for me smile.gif
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 11:19 AM)
Dialog is another fantastic company.. not much affected by oil price.. tongue.gif

Due to its nature of storage tanks, with multi year contracts.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Yes. Not much.. Unless production reduce a lot then we will seen an impact to it.

Another point to take note is that those storage tanks fee are in SGD. So with SGD strengthening against MYR, + point too.
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:24 AM

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gark, assuming your portfolio don't have SKPETRO and you have Dialog (price dropped 45% from ur entry price). Would you have average down Dialog, or buy in SKPETRO. Or both?
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 11:25 AM)
Some in RM and some in SGD..

Some thanks especially those with petronas is take or pay.. virtually guaranteed profits.

Those in Johor is wholesale rented to oil traders.. so should be ok for sometime until contract expired.  laugh.gif
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Is it? Which is in RM? From what I know they have petrochemical and crude oil tank storage. Petrochemical is slightly higher in comparison.

Any idea of their operating (EBIT) margin earned?
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:30 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 11:26 AM)
I was looking at dialog recently.. I still think the price is pricy.. PE 30x..  sweat.gif  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

SKpet at these level and at these oil price is also pricy..

sad.gif
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30+- cent from your entry price only wor. So fast say pricey? Long way to go la. My first TP is at least RM3.
TakoC
post Jan 19 2015, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 19 2015, 11:29 AM)
Their petrochemical tanks in kemaman is RM based.  laugh.gif
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Where did you get the info from? Any sources? Surprised cause they are usually quite discrete with their information.
TakoC
post Jan 22 2015, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 22 2015, 10:05 AM)
Pet pet.. uptrend wor..  laugh.gif

Gonna ride the wave..  tongue.gif
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Good work, gark! Grats on your SKP.
TakoC
post Jan 22 2015, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(holybo @ Jan 22 2015, 10:07 AM)
TA wise, ride the trends
FA wise, not attractive  tongue.gif
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I'm just gonna share one time. Kind of sick that people don't listen to me in the other thread when I explain what our PM said when he meant we are net importer.

I have to say yes and no to your FA statement. FA wise crude prices are not attractive. That's why you can invest in companies with strong outstanding order book with good earnings visibility for the next 2-3 years. If their order book are very strong, average of 2-3x of current year revenue they should be fine.

But again, in time like this.. TA and FA really doesn't matter. Market sentiment matters icon_rolleyes.gif
TakoC
post Jan 22 2015, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Jan 22 2015, 10:14 AM)
TA is about market sentiment  sweat.gif
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Good indication on graph does not equal to market sentiment. I'm referring to pure graph, excluding all RSI etc.

But I can be wrong la. My TA very bad sweat.gif
TakoC
post Jan 22 2015, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 22 2015, 10:33 AM)
Earn kopi money only.. if reach rm 3.. might sell.  laugh.gif
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I want collect le. Haha!

gark are you looking at property segment?
TakoC
post Jan 22 2015, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 22 2015, 10:38 AM)
Not at the mpoment.. property sales seems weak...

look at what happening to china, property company default loan.. Singapore property holding on massive unsold volume..  sweat.gif
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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Jan 22 2015, 10:38 AM)
a friend strong rekomen PJD
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thinking to collect matrix. DY 7% for too bad also.

might consider collect if fall a bit lower.

This post has been edited by TakoC: Jan 22 2015, 10:39 AM
TakoC
post Jan 22 2015, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 22 2015, 10:53 AM)
IF you really have to own property/construction.. i would rekomend..

Tambun
Mitra

and to certain extend Matrix  tongue.gif

Disclaimer : Not vested .. yet  tongue.gif
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so tambun and matrix, which would be your pick?

like SKPETRO, if invest in these 2 in december 20% ROI now also.

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