QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 8 2015, 11:03 AM)
no specific no. has been mentioned so far. only "undervalued".
well, the strange thing is there is a now lot of contention as to whether msia is still a net exporter or importer of oil. gomen officials hv taken pain to say msia is now a net oil importer but is still a net petroleum exporter when gas is included. banks and intl analysts insist it is net oil exporter. while 30% of gomen revenues comes from oil, there is a huge oil import bill too. so, perhaps it is at a neutral point...?
i think the weak rm is not just about oil anymore. more to do with little fdi, decreasing foreign funds in bursa, illicit outflows, unrelenting habit of borrowing more, confidence, etc. 1 mdb is certainly having an effect - if gomen/fin ministry declares a total bailout (consistent with past records of such bailouts n rakyat forgeting quickly so can do it again), we'll see significant rm movement again.
advantages of weak rm... only for exporters in usd like rubber glove and palm oil cos., their shareholders, directors and employees, maybe tax dept too. disadvantages, no need to list....
weak currency->attract foreign money to local equities...? i think they will come if they can see the currency strengthening and not continuing to depr against their own currency. as it is now, i believe foreign funds are still net sellers every month for the past 1 yr or so. which probably partly explains bursa's sterile behavior lately - 54% bursa is owned by glc's, local funds like epf, local syndicates and punters trading but little foreign participation. and dun forget not only the rm is the worst performing currency in asia in 2014; bursa is also the worst performer among asian bourses in 2014, losing 13%:
http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2014...ian-currencies/
http://www.bourseinvestment.com/content/wp...utlook-2015.pdf
looking ahead, have things changed or major efforts put in place to reverse the trends? that's the big question, isn't it?!
quite true - house prices doubled in last 10 years. some doubled in last 5 yrs!
food prices (except some veg, i suppose) have also doubled in last 10 yrs.
salaries probably average 30-40%.
the effects are clear!
Salaries have doubled too.. in some cases tripled. So funny to read posts saying foreign companies are moving out because salaries are too high, and then read posts saying salaries have not gone up enough well, the strange thing is there is a now lot of contention as to whether msia is still a net exporter or importer of oil. gomen officials hv taken pain to say msia is now a net oil importer but is still a net petroleum exporter when gas is included. banks and intl analysts insist it is net oil exporter. while 30% of gomen revenues comes from oil, there is a huge oil import bill too. so, perhaps it is at a neutral point...?
i think the weak rm is not just about oil anymore. more to do with little fdi, decreasing foreign funds in bursa, illicit outflows, unrelenting habit of borrowing more, confidence, etc. 1 mdb is certainly having an effect - if gomen/fin ministry declares a total bailout (consistent with past records of such bailouts n rakyat forgeting quickly so can do it again), we'll see significant rm movement again.
advantages of weak rm... only for exporters in usd like rubber glove and palm oil cos., their shareholders, directors and employees, maybe tax dept too. disadvantages, no need to list....
weak currency->attract foreign money to local equities...? i think they will come if they can see the currency strengthening and not continuing to depr against their own currency. as it is now, i believe foreign funds are still net sellers every month for the past 1 yr or so. which probably partly explains bursa's sterile behavior lately - 54% bursa is owned by glc's, local funds like epf, local syndicates and punters trading but little foreign participation. and dun forget not only the rm is the worst performing currency in asia in 2014; bursa is also the worst performer among asian bourses in 2014, losing 13%:
http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2014...ian-currencies/
http://www.bourseinvestment.com/content/wp...utlook-2015.pdf
looking ahead, have things changed or major efforts put in place to reverse the trends? that's the big question, isn't it?!
quite true - house prices doubled in last 10 years. some doubled in last 5 yrs!
food prices (except some veg, i suppose) have also doubled in last 10 yrs.
salaries probably average 30-40%.
the effects are clear!
Mar 20 2015, 06:50 PM

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