-Holds zero interests in this lair

This post has been edited by Brother J: Jul 14 2015, 12:09 AM

it's just the beginning, why unload.

I'm currently selling naked put as well. I'm wondering what it would be like if market crash and those put skyrocketed. Would that blow up my account? What would be the right position sizing per position? What to do in event of market crash? good to share any thought on this.
Currently each of my position sized to $10K of strike price and that would cost me about $2k of margin with potential reward average about $300 expiring 2 months out. About 15% return on margin or 90% annualized.

i just took a quick look at the period 16 dec 2014- 2 jan 2015 when crude was around ud54, about same as now.

crosscheck that against some popular oil/energy stocks incl oih, slb and xle... their prices then were more or less the same as they r now. well, post 2 jan 2015, they all dived together with crude price going from 54 to 44.

so, buy now or not... what u think oil price will be in 1, 3, 6 months? 60, 70 or 50, 40?

shorts n longs... broj , pls give us a shout when u see the longs unload!

Haha. Same thought same request. Perhaps those players are waiting for a higher target price, or a negative political deal before flushing the oils?

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Apr 15 2015, 05:44 PM

Well, i manage my risk (unsure enough or not) by:
1. Selling naked puts on dividend stocks that are:
downed by fear, thus their DY% is near juicy
and downed "enough" comparatively to their moving 52 weeks hi/lo
and dividend payout < XX% (to ensure probability of dividends continuity)
Thus, there is "a bottom"
+ and the bottom probably isn't zero (think MCD, IBM, HP, NUS, ABBV, BP, T, LNN, WMT, CSCO, TGT, etc), thus i can keep rolling over (and down if possible)

2. Contract Sizing:
a. Margin - i treat as though i have to pay 40% to 50% upfront, even though OX gets me usually at 20% to 30% (depending on stock & fear / VIX) required. Note though i've been hit by 60% to 70% margin requirements when extreme fear set in (whole market + that counter)

b. I only trade naked puts with 50% of my cash in the account
Thus combined with (2.), i can pickup / pay.

c. Thus sizing my contracts based on 2a , 2b & strike price i sold at, and to be able to have 6 to 8 open Naked Puts at any one time.

Hope the above is useful
---
Annualized Returns per trade based on 40% margin (note per trade ya & annualized over 365 days):
What I'm getting ranges from 9%+ (severely stupid test trades early in my naked Puts, which i keep rolling over) to 121%+,
with median around 20%+/-.

Dunno good, bad or fugly as i usually trade alone (loner/geek/nerky)

---
All ears & eyes for any bro / sis that can share / shed some better light what/how/why can be better

PS: Side note - the balance of the 50% is used for extremely short weekly credit spreads / verticals.
Thus, er.. i'm double dipping with the capital
Weeklies - sizing based on SPX / RUT $10-$20 spreads VS SPY, IWM, QQQ, EWZ, EFA $1-$2 spreads,
to ensure enough buffer to cover cut losses
and have 3 to 5 trades at any one time (excluding iron condors, which i count as 1 even though i leg-in 1 by 1)

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Apr 15 2015, 07:05 PM

bull!

nice to see all sectors green.



side view.... thought this writeup on emerging markets equities vis-a-vis their currencies is interesting:
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/e...urrency-malaise

My oh my... more bullish Energy indeed! Now popping up above 81 already.

so good to see energy and oil popping up each evening at open, charging out strongly.
but still wondering what would be the main trigger? upping oil prices? iran deal? rising global (or china) consumption?
congrats for your patience.

the shale numbers dropping gua.

just the beginning....

Frack... now I wish I haven't take some profits at 80... could have ride up more with full load.

can't have it all....!

s&p not bad... spy very steady, much less stressful.

LOL. As we always say, no profit is bad profit.

done that yet?

xlv is trying to pass its record high of 75, like spy is trying 212!

I'm selling mostly dividend stocks + ETF but maybe not when it went down enough. Currently having ABBV, EWU, MCD, MSFT, T, XLK, XLU. Used to sell AAPL with good result but now the stock price is out of my position size already. Last week got assigned on MU and selling call now. Although they may not go down to zero during market crash but down by 40% is significant enough to cause margin requirement shooting up 2x-3x for a $40 stock like T back in 2009. Worst still if you get assigned during such period. There is better protection by selling covered call as we can close positions when stock drop by 15% or so. Thinking if there is trading system to exit naked put as well

I did not calculate how many % of my cash is on premium collection but I have stocks as well as buying straight call/put. Whenever I need $ to cover for option assignment or margin call, I'll sell some of those stocks. Probably need to look at my capital allocation. I'm thinking of allocating $4K of margin per position of $10K strike price.

This post has been edited by kimyee73: Apr 16 2015, 08:26 AM

oil price rallied, so did the rm.

if buying with rm, it's now or never - 3.66xx, 1.6% better than last night's 3.72xx!

Oh yeah... yesterday my buddy called me.. at several exchange counters (in Singapore), they
ran out of Ringgit to sell because suddenly it was like 1 SGD=2.72. Got a few K, just a case.

Time to go shopping and eat out again this weekend at JB.

yep, i understand that, been there.


looks uneventful tonite...

grexit in limelight again...

crude retreating...

i do wanna buy tonite with a "strong" rm, less tmrw 1% gone...

probably stay up tonite...

i want below 3.60 can ah?