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 Property Bubble & Its Social Impact V13, LYN famous DDD Vs UUU Thread

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cfa28
post Nov 10 2014, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 10 2014, 01:36 PM)
i recall you buying for children isn't? now investment? Maigeh geh also buying for children or grandchildren right? since his dictionary no words like 'dense" and "far", we are sure he is buying southville @ bangi for his generation  hmm.gif
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My ideal is to give 1 Landed and 1 highrise to my children so that they can stay in the Landed and keep the highrise for investment or for their own children. So in this case, I hope to be able to help my future 2-generations.

For Landed, I cannot afford KV area, so it has to be in South of KL.

For Highrise, buying in South KL is a BIG risk at the moment, so I have to confine to hotter areas like OKR, etc.

QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Nov 10 2014, 01:44 PM)
I wrote:

I challenge you to post your rental or selling price double the market price now.
Don't rent out or sell until u got takers for that price.

You dare or not? Why telor kecut ah?

This is just friendly discussions. We should always refrain from playing 'Who has the biggest D1CK"

This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 10 2014, 01:58 PM
cfa28
post Nov 10 2014, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 10 2014, 02:17 PM)
How many of gen y wanted to stay in property bought or built 10, 20 or 30 years ago?
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Well, most ppl here have answered here that "its better compared to under the Bridge".

For me, its okay if my children want to sell the Property after I am dead to buy another property, The living should never live for the dead.

I just wanna give them some capital so that they can have some head start in life.

But as long as I am alive, the property cannot be sold lah, of course, cos its Mine until I / the wife are dead
cfa28
post Nov 10 2014, 03:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 10 2014, 02:56 PM)
Why there is a huge difference in RM PSF asking price between older property and new launch subsale?
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Apart from the common sense that older property may need more $$$ for reno and repairs, there is also other factors such as Concept & Lifestyle

Newer Properties incorporate Concept & Lifestyle in the township such as SEH, Eco Majestic, TH, Nadayu 92 that the older Taman in Kajang such as Kajang Perdana, Kajang Prima, Kajang Utama cannot / do not provide.

So, the price has also been incorporated.


cfa28
post Nov 10 2014, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 10 2014, 03:08 PM)
Current property concept, design or even location will be idea or suited for lifestyle in 10, 20 or 30 years time?
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nobody has a crystal ball to see into the future 20 to 30 yrs from today.

Am just explaining why some new launches in the same general area cost so much more compared to existing older properties in the same general locality.

However today buyers seem to demand G&G, Lifestyle living and think this trend will continue going forward with newer and more trendy concepts like double frontage.

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 10 2014, 03:11 PM)
due to this above factors, the main problem was the flippers/investors also incorporated their expected profit into the high price, right? that is the most glaring problem with property price today..
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Nobody buys a scarce product and resell at the same price.

The Laws of physics says that "two objects cannot occupy the same space simultaneously". Hence if you have bought a house, it means that there is one less house and with a growing population (Demand), and supply being limited, prices must increase.

The only question is by how much?



This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 10 2014, 03:29 PM
cfa28
post Nov 10 2014, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 10 2014, 04:34 PM)
we will never be able to built enough houses for to match population, it never will, even we do not touch the population, property price still goes down, America got burst, China & Singapore are undergoing correction, why?

we also have bukit beruntung, which well know ur theory above does not work, i did drop below the purchase price, unless you confine this to mature area only

we have bukit beruntung no2(setia alam)
bekit beruntung no 3 ( semenyih)

the next 10 years will be the same, after 10 years no body knows... but jokers here and young kid are not aiming these 10 years, by then more modern concept will take over setia alam, and nothing can remedy the far.. effect , unless u follow USA septem 11, blow both our towers and move elsewhere, maybe sekincan kot. since it is not far from setia alam

everything property has a price according to time, and yes generally and majority property price goes with time, you are taking inflated price to be a norm that is wrong footing to begin with... jokers here are do not want you to see speculation but rather "market rate",
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Hi Bear, lets go into specific on Bukit Beruntung.

TBH, I am an old man, already pushing 45, so I was old enough to know about Bukit Beruntung and could have even bought into Bukit Beruntung.

Today, we look at why Property prices are depressed in Bukit Beruntung.

The Answer is simple - cos there is ready supply in terms of completed and abandoned homes but there is NO demand. Hence, Prices are Low.

Now why there is No demand, cos the Centre of Gravity is towards the Southern Corridor.

Brief History Lesson.

In the early to mid 90s, in the times of TDM,the talk in town was that the Centre of Gravity would be in the Northern Corridor, Linking Selangor to the Silver State (Perak)

Land & General wanted to be the front runner and bought huge parcels of Land and decided to sell and many people were enticed to buy. I was in my 20s and amohst our friends, we talked about buying a unit there but at the end, we did not.

Then, two things happened, the first being the Asian Financial Crisis and TDM announcing that the Airport will be in KLIA and togeter, the development of the Southern Corridor now known as Putrajaya and Cyberjaya and Bukit Beruntung, Rawang was abandoned. L&G wend under and the situation has changed little for past 20++ years.

Today, we look at your comparison of Setia Alam and Semenyih vs Bukit Beruntung.

The Analogy is not comparable.

When Bukit Beruntung was abandoned, there was hardly any infrastructure there.

No 3-Lane Highways

No Public Transportation

No Malls of any kind.

The country went through a Financial Crisis / Recession.

Even if a Developer were to revive the Projects, it would not be viable without the necessary infrastructure.

In fact, only with LATAR, etc, is Rawang becoming viable and some Developers like Mah Sing starting to build there again.

Now we look at Setia Alam. It has a highway.

It has a Mall - filled with outsiders as u may claim.

But the houses are completed. Yes, it may be vacant but its not abandoned.
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If SP Setia decides to give up on Setia Alam, there will be ready takers in form of other developers, the issue being only pricing

We look at Semenyih.

It has PLUS Highway to Kajang. MRT also stops at Kajang.

It has SILK Highway

It has LEKAS Highway.

Kajang is almost fully developed with only small parcels of Land, so the natural progression is either Bangi or Semenyih.

Problem with Bangi is most Land are Bumi Land so, there won't be huge developments there.

Of course, Southville, etc is there but that's about it for the time being.

The issue with Semenyih is only on pricing.

Is it overpriced - the answer is YES, cos they are selling at Kajang prices already

But will it end up Abandoned like Bukit Beruntung - the answer is NO.

Subsequent phases might be delayed until the right time but it WILL NOT be Abandoned like Bukit Beruntung.

It does not matter if there are many Vacant Units. To Developers, sales has been done and its up to the Secondary Market to find the equilibrium price.

Now on the population part.

Pricing is always a function of Demand and Supply.

If you are the Supply Side, u also will not Supply 1,000 units if there is anticipated 1,000 Demand.

To build momentum, future profitibility, you will build at most 50% to 60% of anticipated demand.

This is cos

1) Not all of anticipated demand will translate into real sales

2) Company must always be a going concern - if u build 100% today, tomorrow u will go bust

Now the real issue of this anticipated demand, how much is

1) Genuine own stay
2) BBGC - Buy Bu Give Children / Long Term Investment
3) Buy to Flip

The above is based on desirability of demand to the overall industry

A bit of speculation is good

Excesive speculation is bad

Demand in SG has dropped cos the Govt has imposed additional stamp duty on foreign purchasers

HK also imposed additional stamp duty to deter excessive speculation

China has a huge risk of property bubble popping anytime
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This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 10 2014, 05:43 PM
cfa28
post Nov 10 2014, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 10 2014, 05:45 PM)
Bro, I thought Bkt TakUntung is built by Talam ?

L&G is Sungai Buaya
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Sorry, forgot about Talam being there also. Yes, Talam also was in Bukit Beruntung.

L&G was in Sungai Buaya, the more high end development.

Lumping the 2 as its general locality right.
cfa28
post Nov 11 2014, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 11 2014, 12:08 AM)
sounded like my friend too, a bit out of mind... bought 3 storey dsl segambut new, 1.4 million around that, what for? 2 fella can stay 3 store? not ai face meh?

gf loaded so, need to take such risk and burden... ? gf loaded should just change surname and join in.. rich gf, you dare to ask her for installments monthly? dun go tell ppl, guess also know own portion , gf portion and father portion..

wonder how it was paid and who is collecting it? what if father forget pays, damm susah buka mulut... ask tiger , he very well versed one
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Ai Yoh Bro, couple buy studio - you scold. Couple buy 3 storey link house - you also scold. I got friend, DINKS - buy Semi D - you are sure to scold

FYI - DINKS = Double Income No Kids


cfa28
post Nov 11 2014, 08:25 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 11 2014, 07:54 AM)
Landed property is supposed to be more limited supply than high rise and yet high rise price increased a lot more than landed.

Either high rise was undervalued or overvalued now.
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The Highrise is located nearer to KL City

The Landed is much further away


cfa28
post Nov 11 2014, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(jeghui @ Nov 11 2014, 01:55 PM)
Everything has a bubble, a wise man once said.

Deep down you know there are some places having ridiculous entry prices.
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i think almost all places having ridiculous entry prices perhaps save for Rawang, Serembann Nilai.

cfa28
post Nov 11 2014, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 11 2014, 04:34 PM)
Bro, why so tension....cool down. We are here for some discussion only. If you are looking for an alternative for Bro CloudAtla$, you got the wrong person  tongue.gif

Let me tell you the history of this prediction. It started with bearbear actually.

Bearbear said now transaction so low. Price sure come down in 2015. So I sincerely advise him if he thinks that the price will start to drop in 2015, it is just the start of the crash. He should wait 2-3 years to drop to bottom only buy. That will be 2017. But then he said a price drop of 10%-20% is good enough for him. He don't mind. I told him that is a stupid move. DDD has been waiting for the day since 5-6 years ago. He go and buy near the peak  doh.gif

I told him -10% to -20% is not going to happen. The market will still go up, but at slower pace of 5%-10%.

I told him if he believes his prediction, he should not buy in 2015. Wait for 2017. If he believes my prediction, he should not wait.

Then the discussion evolve to starting a prediction thread for everyone to predicts. In 1 years time, then we know who is the most accurate. And give opportunity for us to laugh at each other

It is not about how "gung-ho" a DDD or UUU is. No suggesting those who predict +30% or -30% is the winner. Neither is it suggesting those who predict +5% or -5% is coward.

What I mean by coward is those who don't even dare to predict. Like bearbear and iceman. If you dare to predict -2%, then you are not coward. At least you dare to give a specific numbers

Look at this challenge in a good and fun intention. If you think my intention is to make fun of DDD, then you can forget about it. So far, bearbear and iceman will not participate. So, there is no DDD agree to participate. The thread is not interesting anymore. If you can participate, and convince bearbear and iceman to give their prediction also, I can always start the thread. No problem at all bro  thumbup.gif
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Okay, bro, let me start. For TH, Phase 1, I predict a 5% increase p.a. So, for Phase 1, the average price for late birds was RM820K++ * 5% * 2-yrs to VP, I predict an asking price of RM900K on VP for the intermediate units.


cfa28
post Nov 11 2014, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 11 2014, 05:24 PM)
thumbup.gif You got balls. Unlike some DDD..... rolleyes.gif

Actually your idea is good. You choose your own property and predicts. Workable also...

Let's wait for DDD with balls to commit. I found 1  tongue.gif  If got DDD give their prediction, only the new thread is meaningful
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Market is softening, else I would have predicted 10% annual increase. So be more prudent, 5% pa is good enough for time being, as development progress and ppl buy into the entire concept & masterplan, perhaps 10% to 15% jump, then stabilise at say 8% p.a.
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 01:06 PM

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BBW, since u mentioned this Padang Tengah so many times, can u educate me as to

1) What was price of MF1 when it was launched and how much is it now (also when was it launched)

2) What was price of MF2 when it was launched and was it fully sold

TQVM
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 01:42 PM

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BBW, I am asking sincerely - u can read my previous postings.

Just wanna increase my knowledge only and see if there is really a DDD like u are talking abouy

In any event, makes no diff to me cos I am chasing Landed only and for Long Term
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 14 2014, 02:04 PM)
when Midfields 1 vs Midfields 2 cross sword, all when Midfields 2 vp and fighting with Midfields 1, then we will know thre are price limitation for Midfields 1.. there you see how sore the prices are...
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TQVM for the price range of MF1 & MF2

I suspect when MF2 gets VP, they will try to flip for RM700K to RM800K

Now whether they get it depends on

1) Will owners of MF1 also want to try their luck and also sell at between RM700 to RM800K

2) Price of surrounding properties

3) Overall economy

Very hard to say, there are many properties around Kuchai Lama, OKR, Sungai Besi

RM800K is possible

After all, 9-Seputeh buyers are targeting RM1.5 mln on VP with the Monorail and Interchange



This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 14 2014, 02:11 PM
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 14 2014, 02:51 PM)
same thing I was expecting to see the subsales.. still it is a 500k property...
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MF1 was built as a RM300K to RM400K property

Just because sub-sales Value has > RM700K, it does not become a RM700K++ like those in MK, etc

Just like Pearl Avenue right
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(Babizz @ Nov 14 2014, 02:34 PM)
If 9 seputeh buyers can cover the buying price also good d.. monorail no announcement also but interchange got announcement la..
I still don't understand why would sum1 buy an overpriced condo in the middle of a SLUM of flats? the layout sucky also.. I'm willing to bet that 9seputeh's appreciation will be bad!
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yep, 9Seputeh layout very weird, lots of corners, diamond corners in the bedrooms.

But the price of the 1400 sq ft is quite value for money in terms of psf basis

Too Bad its leasehold, else I can consider
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 14 2014, 05:16 PM)
Why not saville? southbank residence? quantas? residency v
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saville @ Kajang - don't believe in Highrise @ KL South

Hmm, the rest thought its sold out already


cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 14 2014, 05:23 PM)
ya meh? saville as opposite Midvalley one? the residency V my friend bought 670k or 680k, 700sq... discounts rebates, paid some 21 k only
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oh that saville

Say lah you bought, your friend bought Residency V

But how come your 700 sq ft after rebates so expensive at RM680K

My Wife bought 909 sq ft at RM690K only (before rebates) - lower floors of course. But who cares if u want for rental yield and targeting families

This post has been edited by cfa28: Nov 14 2014, 05:28 PM
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 14 2014, 05:35 PM)
the investors cannot reduce profit margin from 200k at least to 100k one and sell? ngeh ngeh must sell with 200k profit? must be that greedy ?

or the new launches prices climb too high that it cnanot go down as many will burn?

I know developers will not stop building and investors cant be buying all, richer ones see the game plan know already, cnanot work even with new launch, Mahsing self promote also laughing, bought 1100 sq for 800k before rebate, after vp cna go 1 million wor and more, hantam my head few time also cannot reason, DSL there selling how much? 2 million?
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I don't intend to sell, unless perhaps it has reached RM1.5 mln and I can grab 2-landed in Semenyih.

To me Paper GA1N is all fake one, real GA1N is $$$ in the Bank after sale is completed.

What floor your friend bought ??
cfa28
post Nov 14 2014, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 14 2014, 05:42 PM)
dun remember which floors, but defiantly high floors/mid, PAMA MAS pilots and one stay in desa parkcity..

in fact 2 of them bought 1 unit each same floor, and professionals so check here there will know..
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congratulations on your their purchase

OKR is always a good place to buy, whether for own stay or long term investment



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