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 Q&A on Stock Market V2, General Question On Stock Market

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plumberly
post Dec 16 2014, 07:32 PM

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Hope sifu and those in the share industry can help me with this.

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Seeing the sharp drops now and then in the past but rather regular now.

What is happening there?
Some big sellers and some big buyers doing big transactions at the start and end of the day.

Why?

Who?

Pre-arranged between buyers and sellers?

And other interesting/useful inside infor on this?

Many thanks.

plumberly
post Feb 4 2015, 09:47 AM

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Saw this in The Star ...

SYDNEY: Australia’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a new record low and said the local currency remains overvalued, joining a dozen global counterparts in easing policy this year as commodity prices tumble.
The overnight cash rate target was lowered by 25 basis points to 2.25%, governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement. Growth would be weaker for longer and the jobless rate peak higher than earlier expected, he said.

AA
What is meant by "overvalued"?
In high demand and thus higher price?

If it is high demand/higher price, then it is not true with the drop in A$ vs US$ now.

BB
My lay person's understanding is they should be raising the interest rate to reduce the A$ decline. But they are doing the reverse. Salah understanding?

Some exchange 101 tips please.

Thanks.
plumberly
post Feb 9 2015, 04:58 PM

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Dec 1, 2014 3,757.97 3,365.15
Nov 3, 2014 3,792.42 3,350.50
Oct 1, 2014 3,767.10 3,274.25
Sep 1, 2014 3,794.53 3,276.74
Aug 1, 2014 3,934.69 3,327.00
Jul 1, 2014 3,991.51 3,374.00

The above are STI monthly figures. 2nd column are the latest Yahoo numbers. 3rd column are figures I got about a month ago from Yahoo.

Why is there such a difference now? STI figures were adjusted since the start of 2015?

Thanks.
plumberly
post Feb 9 2015, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Feb 7 2015, 12:06 PM)
Overvalue means currency is trading at a higher value than it should.. hence limiting export potential. The government wants the currency to trend lower to encourage export. More export means better economic growth and higher jobs uptake. However a weaker currency means higher inflation too.

Reducing interest rates makes the fixed deposit not attractive, hence people will tend to sell the currency and buy other currency for better gains.

When more people are selling compared to buying a currency will slowly drop. Currency is like other goods priced towards supply/demand.
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Thanks Gark.

I follow the interest rate - currency exchange rate relationship.

But ...

Overvalued means in high demand. If in high demand, then its value should be getting stronger than the US$. But A$ was dropping relative to US$ (like our RM).

Sorry for being such a slow learner, just cannot follow the overvalued and the drop in A$.

Thanks.
plumberly
post Feb 9 2015, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Feb 9 2015, 06:02 PM)
plan to put money in Indo FD.

previously  rm1k= IDR3million

now rm1k = IDR3.5million.
*
How much is their FD rate?

A bit jumpy for me when it comes to exchange rate related investment. Ha.

Very happy with EPF's 6.75%. Ha.


plumberly
post Feb 10 2015, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Feb 10 2015, 10:05 AM)
A currency depends on export-import trade balance. A high export country, and a net exporter will push up the currency as demand for the goods outpace the exchange of other currency for importation. In this case Australia sells iron ores, gold, and other minerals and form the export basis and the value is much higher than imports. When commodity prices are at all time high, the AUD$ also reach all time high due to demand for AUD$ to purchase those commodities.

Now the commodity prices has slumped and trade balance is approaching negative. The AUD$ demand will be slowing down, as less amount of export compared to imports. To revitalize the trade balance the currency is deemed overvalue (above fair value), and needs to be reduced to boost/balance export. The AUD$ is dropping slowly is due to the high interest rate in a world where there is no more high interest rates. Demand for the high interest rates is what keeping the currency in somewhat high demand. The government wants the currency to become lower as the large amount of AUD$ in FD is not going to help the economy.

Lets say price of commodity A price unchanged at USD $1 per kg. When AUD$ was 1:1 with USD, Australia company will get 1 AUD$ for every kg sold. Now lets say the exchange rate is AUD$ 0.9:1 USD$, The same company will get 1.11 AUD$ per kg. Also with cheaper exchange rate, it will balance the price dropping in terms of USD$, and the company earning will still be same. A cheaper AUD$ will also reduce import as the inverse happens, it is costlier to import.

To reduce the value of the AUD$, the primary function is via interest rate control, lower the interest rate the currency will drop, raise it will rise. Bust it also depend on other macro economics such as trade balance, economic growth, sovereign bond ratings & foreign currency reserves.

Lowering of currency = boost export, reduce import and improve the economy but raise inflation.  wink.gif
*
Many many thanks Professor Gark!!! You should write a few books on economy, investment and also not forgetting Palm Oil close to your heart!

The recent drop in Aust's commodity prices explains the drop in A$ (spill over effect from China's slow down). A$ - US$ rate is not a measure of whether it is overvalued or not.

Got it now.

Terima kasih!

This post has been edited by plumberly: Feb 10 2015, 06:39 PM
plumberly
post Feb 10 2015, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Feb 10 2015, 10:12 AM)
On average Indo FD is 7.5%-9% p.a. for 3-6 months deposit.

1 year deposit with high amount (1 billion rupiah) can earn up to 10-11%

High currency risk though...  wink.gif
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Thanks.

Yes, currency risk is a big deterrent for me.
plumberly
post Mar 23 2015, 12:00 PM

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Seeking Sifu Gark's view on this ....

Attached Image

Thanks.
plumberly
post Mar 23 2015, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 23 2015, 12:16 PM)
Lol.. how they score those company? Most of them are not 100% pure plantation companies..

Based on stock price? ROE? EPS? tongue.gif

I still favor TSH & FR for plantation.. and long term growth.  laugh.gif
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Thanks.

Just wondering, can they grow oil palm in Belgium? Or maybe only HQ in Belgium with plantations in the tropics.


plumberly
post Apr 10 2015, 12:49 PM

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Read that Shell has bought over BG for US$70 billion at 50% premium.

What is meant by 50% premium? At 50% more than the current market price? If true, so brave/kind/stupid(some may say this) to pay 50% extra. Ha.
plumberly
post Apr 10 2015, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 10 2015, 12:56 PM)
it's 52% to the 90-day trading average price of the company..

reason is that Shell would gain access to BG's multi-billion dollar projects in Brazil, East Africa, Australia, Kazakhstan and Egypt, including some of the world's most ambitious liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects  nod.gif
*
Thanks.

52% of the average or 52% on TOP of the average?

Sorry, for asking the "obvious" Ha
plumberly
post Apr 10 2015, 01:04 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 10 2015, 01:03 PM)
52% on top the average trading market price  sweat.gif
*
Noted and thanks.

Very generous of Shell then. Wish that I had some BG shares then. Ha.
plumberly
post Apr 10 2015, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Apr 10 2015, 01:10 PM)
BG shares is listed on London Stock Exchange..

Shell would pay 383 pence in cash and 0.4454 of Shell's B shares for each BG share  nod.gif

Difference between A and B Shell shares
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Considering the share price drop resulting from the oil price drop, paying 52% extra may not be that great now. Maybe Shell think with the recent drop in share price, BG is now at a bargain! Ha.
plumberly
post May 22 2015, 09:35 PM

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Suppose there are 2 companies with about the same financial performance (same EPS, PE, ROE, etc).

The only difference is their shareholder makeup.

Company A
* institutional investors 40%
* company xyz 40%
* retailers 20%

Company B
* company xyz 20%
* retailers 80%

Which company would you prefer for investment?

Why?


For me, I would prefer company B because the real market force will be at play via the retailers. Company A's movement is heavily dependant on the institutional investors' and company XYZ's mood.

Right?

Any other pointers I should keep in mind when I come across such companies?

Thanks.

Cheerio.


plumberly
post Jul 10 2015, 07:32 AM

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QUOTE(Beachkid @ Jul 10 2015, 03:46 AM)
Hi guys,

Do you know any brokers that provide services to buy into the Oslo Stock exchange?

Really interested in a few companies there that have amazing ROE/PE/Yield.

Thanks!
*
My 2 ecnts.

Sometimes one has to be extra careful when the figures are amazing.

Too good to be true?

Confirm that they are consistent, no smart accounting involved, etc.

All the best!
plumberly
post Aug 24 2015, 06:10 PM

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Like to know which website I can use to find out which are the 5 KLCI companies with the smallest price change since Aug 2014 to now and ditto for the largest price change.

The hard way is to download all the prices on the 2 dates. Hope there is already a database to do that.

Catching a falling knife now? Borrowing a new phrase I heard today from Bloomberg, catching a falling chainsaw! Ha.
plumberly
post Aug 24 2015, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Aug 24 2015, 06:34 PM)
Falling chainsaw ? I think its a falling grenade ! Knife or chainsaw only your hand is gone. This time a whole body could blow up tongue.gif

*****  Adding M'sian flavour - don't forget C4!

Just that we don't know what will this event be called in history book. 2015 Oil + China crisis ? 2015 world stock market crash ?

*****  + DONATION

Hope everybody can ride through this crash unscathed and live to tell the story to your children and grand children years later tongue.gif
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plumberly
post Aug 24 2015, 07:14 PM

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Back to my query.

Where can I download daily prices of all KLCI companies in one go? I can download one company at a time but that will take me hours/days to do that for 1000+ KLCI companies.

Thanks.
plumberly
post Aug 31 2015, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(MohdPuskas @ Aug 31 2015, 06:09 PM)
Hi guys and sifus

Is it a right time to start stock trading now ? Remiser from which broker recommended ? smile.gif

I might start with Penny stock (is it true what people call it ? tongue.gif) because my capital is very low, just small player
*
Ask him why now is the right time. Lower price now? Just one food for thought - one guru says - price is what you pay, value is what you get!

They are 2 very different things. And thus don't jump in just because the prices are lower now.

My personal view is, better avoid penny stock for starters.

Cheerio.




plumberly
post Aug 31 2015, 08:39 PM

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QUOTE(MohdPuskas @ Aug 31 2015, 07:00 PM)
May I know why ? Because company might close anytime at current economy situation ? smile.gif
*
Wonder why buy a company when it is going to close down and lose money?

My 2 cents on value investing ..

AA
find a worth while company to invest in.
how?
financial side should be ok or better ( free cash flow etc etc)
management side should be ok or better (ROE etc etc)

BB
right price to buy now?
the company may be performing very well but price is sky high
further increase in price may be slow & limited, compared to other better companies

Sifus, please jump in/correct on this simplified skeleton view.

Thanks.

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