last 2 days have been extraordinary. what happened?

. taco threatened china with 100% tariff, then walked back, spoke with reconciliatory tone - negotiations about to restart.
. a few regional banks in USA showing stress, sparked by a couple of auto loan providers default, bankruptcies, fear spread to EU banks.
. market risked off and then risk on again.
. volatility heightened, changing moods of fear, greed, anxiety, FOMO, FAFO.

after market closed:

. taco said no tomahawks for ukraine - will peace come soon or EU will escalate it?
. fed 100% expected to cut rates on oct 29, QE expected to restart soon.
. silver price eased, but physical shortage persists, closing at $51.94.
. gold was up $140 on one day and then lost it all the next. closed at $4250.

some analysts think gold can go down to $3700, 3500 even. Others are more bullish:

Technical outlook: Gold stays bullish despite testing $4,200
Gold price uptrend remains intact. The ongoing pullback opened the door for buyers, so step in at around the $4,200 milestone and a daily close above $4,250 could prompt traders to drive prices even higher.

Key resistance levels lie at $4,300, $4,350 and the all-time high of $4,389. Conversely, the first support would be the $4,200 mark, followed by October 17 daily low of $4,185.
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-crashes-...na-202510171840

nothing moves up or down in a straight line.
precious metals are not cepat kaya, uncommon to see big shifts over short periods too often. best to buy or sell slowly over time.
personally, i'm waiting to buy more silver bars when they become available again.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 18 2025, 04:22 PM

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-10-...l-momentum-last

Overnight, gold hit a new intraday record high, pushing to within striking distance of $4,400 an ounce. However, technical selling and profit-taking have picked up during the North American trading session, pushing gold prices nearly $165 below their highs.

Spot gold last traded at $4,252.20 an ounce, down 1.69% on the day. Still, prices are up nearly 6% for the week. Despite the selling pressure, gold’s gains over the last nine weeks have outperformed the comparable rally of five years ago. In this short-term run, gold prices have climbed more than 25%, compared to the 19% rally between June and August 2020.

The cap in gold’s rally comes as it closes its ninth consecutive week in positive territory — something that has only happened five times since the 1970s. The last nine-week rally occurred from June to August 2020.

The gold market has never seen 10 consecutive weeks of gains.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-10-...-can-it-make-10

next week will be very very interesting!

too intense, i jump in again, not FOMO. Scared of inflation and ....

New word "debasement trade"... bought again at just below USD 4000.

Seeing gold drop is like 🥶🥶🥶...

Secario gold price soars next week

Regrets, i had a few, but then again, too few to mention.
I planned each chartered course.
I did it my way!

Last nite, after dinner, window shopping ...Auntie supportted polite salesgirl 50 gram sales.

Grok projection bull case myr$780-800/ gram by CNY 2026.

This post has been edited by Unkerpanjang: Oct 20 2025, 09:46 AM

https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2025-10-20/go...icy-uncertainty

Gold surges to record highs amid banking fraud allegations and policy uncertainty

Gold futures established a new record high on Monday, recovering dramatically from Friday's sharp decline of more than $75—the largest single-day loss since April 4, 2025. The precious metal's volatile trading pattern reflects growing investor anxiety over multiple concurrent risks facing the U.S. economy.

Earlier in Monday's session, gold futures surpassed the all-time single-day gain recorded the previous Thursday. While prices retreated modestly from that intraday peak, the metal still traded approximately $100 higher by day's end, underscoring robust demand for safe-haven assets.

The Thursday rally coincided with emerging reports of significant banking sector vulnerabilities. Two regional financial institutions—California Bank & Trust and Western Alliance—disclosed their involvement in what appears to be a substantial loan fraud case, raising fresh concerns about credit quality and risk management practices within the regional banking sector.

According to court filings, California Bank & Trust extended two revolving credit facilities to investment funds in 2016 and 2017, totaling more than $60 million. These facilities were designed to finance the purchase of distressed commercial mortgage loans, with contractual terms granting the bank first-priority perfected security interest in all collateral, including each mortgage loan acquired by the borrowers' investment funds.

However, subsequent investigation revealed serious irregularities. The lender discovered that numerous promissory notes and underlying properties had been transferred to other entities without proper authorization. Many of these properties had already entered foreclosure proceedings or were on the verge of doing so at the time of the lawsuit's filing.

Western Alliance encountered similar problems with its loan portfolio. The institution found that collateral purportedly backed by first-priority liens did not actually hold that senior position. The lawsuit alleges that borrowers fabricated title insurance policies by deliberately omitting disclosure of senior liens that would have subordinated the bank's security interest.

The fraud extended beyond misrepresented collateral. According to legal documents, the borrower systematically drained funds from accounts designated as additional collateral. By August 18, the borrower maintained just over $1,000 in their Western Alliance account—a stark contrast to the contractually required monthly average balance of $2 million.

These revelations have intensified trader concerns regarding the stability of the U.S. financial system, particularly given the sector's still-fresh memories of the 2023 regional banking crisis. The resulting flight to quality has significantly boosted demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset.

The banking sector troubles represent only one component of a broader risk environment driving gold's ascent. The federal government shutdown has now failed to secure passage through ten consecutive reopening votes, creating uncertainty around essential government functions and debt ceiling implications. Simultaneously, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China continue to weigh on economic growth prospects and corporate earnings expectations.

This confluence of financial sector vulnerability, political dysfunction, and geopolitical friction has created an exceptionally supportive environment for gold prices. The metal has been setting new records at an unprecedented frequency, with analysts suggesting that as long as these fundamental concerns persist, prices could reach $4,500 per troy ounce in the near term. Market participants will be closely monitoring developments in all three risk categories for signals of either resolution or further deterioration.

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Wishing you as always good trading,


Kitco Media
Gary Wagner

two interesting videos:

story of the byzantine empire's solidus gold coin debasement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_ohmz-oCAQ&t=33s

pattern of collapse of the last 5 empires - currency debasement, military overreach & eroding productive capacity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRK0kET6xhA&t=3s

Nice dip incoming, lai lai time to buy come morning




This post has been edited by aaronpang: Oct 21 2025, 10:54 PM

So fast buy in? Later la.
I am waiting for 3800

Gold is now $4,050 with low at $4,003

Roller Coaster!

Lets hope 4k holds!

Silver and gold miners in correction already

$3,973 is a critical support.

Good time to masuk stock now or wait a bit longer ?

precious metals price correction was expected.

what wasn't expected was the speed and magnitude of the falls!

analysts now have differing views what the current correction resembles.

some say 1979, some say 2008, some say 2020 - they all have different final outcomes.

so, it's up to u to judge if the correction will take gold down to as low as 3700 or it will rebound fast & furious to a new high.

in RM, current spot at RM558/g still has pretty good profits except for those bought very recently.


most impt, oct 29, we'll see how much fed will cut rates and what messages on QT/QE.

gg....
better don't masuk....

Anyone follow this fellow? He says he is not expert in gold and yet he talks about it to his sheep as if he was an expert. LOL
One aspect of gold that many people missed is IT IS REAL MONEY.
If you had bought gold 20 years ago at $860 in 2005, the CAGR of gold in SGD would have been approx 11%! MUCH MUCH Better than FD!
Master Leong is NO MASTER IN GOLD. Please shut up. LOL

waste of time watching these unknown, no reputation ones.

the only credible asian gold commentator is prof eric yeung in hong kong.


gold's 3 day price action saw extreme volatility of >$300. RSI was way up there, now back down to average.

i wud think things will become clearer tmr night:
September 2025 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 23 2025, 07:27 AM

I follow some of his stock picks for the HK/China market. Did not expect him to talk about gold.
I always hantam him on some of his commentaries.
Now he has disabled comments Shows he cannot take negative or challenges to his commentaries.

i don't especially watch his stuff but came across a couple of them, looked OK to me.

i tend to watch those of andy schetman, peter schiff, mike maloney, mike oliver, rick rule, matthew pippenburg

one thing to keep in mind is gold and silver volatility is likely to stay high for a while.

that is, a drop of $300 in 3 days can also mean a similar move upwards!

...

i also notice something with the bullion traders. from their websites, other than small denominations, there's hardly any >1oz gold coins and bars available. Silver bars 10oz and above, no stock anywhere.

i wonder if there's really no stock or the traders are hoarding, not selling them now.