Gold.
Which is more important.

Time in market.
Size.
Type of investment.
All the above.
None of the above.

This post has been edited by Unkerpanjang: Sep 25 2025, 10:44 AM

Silver, platinum, copper all rising big today!

SVB and First Republic bank failures were all traced to liquidity crunch and having to sell off covid-era bond with low interest rate at a huge loss, since current bond series offers much higher interest rate. Central banks including Fed and BoE accumulated so much of these bonds in their balance sheet and couldn't unwind fully without inflicted massive loss to themselves. Recently, BoE have to sell of their old Gilt which they bough during the covid years at GBP101 face value... guess how much they sold it for? GBP28.... nice!

Central banks and treasuries all around the world are issuing debt notes and printing currencies, telling everybody they carry value, while behind our back they are buying gold.... almost too easy to read their poker face, right?

About your question - yeah, I bought a uranium stockist before, Yellowcake Plc.

BREAKING NEWS : Accident at World’s Second-Biggest Copper Mine Strains Market !

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2025/09/25/...strains-market/

the same credit-liquidity thing is brewing hot again, will blow up soon.

add the bubble in mag7, we might see the biggest explosion of all time.

metals... gold is special - for reserve banks, 5,000 years of real money, measurement & storage, will become more so as fiat currencies die.

silver can explode becos there's been 5 years of shortage + 6 bullion banks' massive shorts to suppress the price.

missile, radar, solar panel, EV, semicond makers now rushing to procure enough silver & other metals.

copper... v high demand for copper for booming data centers... thieves stealing telekom cables in the east coast, I read?!

we are now in v exciting times, don't get left out!

life isn't all only about gaining money, sometimes you need to spend a bit on luxuries and experiences. Since gold price is so high now, it is quite appealing to exchange for holiday trips with family, if not now then when?

Hmm, thanks for response. Just curious why not dividends from ASNB, FD, ETFs, etc. which is more/less fixed dividends.

Wanted to understand if you think gold has topped. No worries.

AUMAS is indeed v small.

still, it's been surging last few weeks.

got my lunch money today!

My investment in the SGX gold miner yielded more than lunch money!
Like 60k became 240k

this week has been a big one for precious metals:

week month YTD
Gold 2.28% 10.91% 43.6%
Silver 6.94% 19.38% 59.53%
Platinum 12.17% 18.7% 77.72%

gold miners, major or minor are all rising high too, obviously.

Wall Street Awakens to Gold and Silver Bull Market | SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmDwxUY0jWo

Morgan Stanley CIO favors 60/20/20 portfolio strategy with gold as inflation hedge
https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/morg...dge-2025-09-16/

next week night be even bigger with just 2 days till end of sep, end of the quarter.

with 2 days to go till sep end, 3Q end, precious metals climb look unstoppable.

gold $3797/oz; RM513.90/g - 3800 will be reached today.

silver $46.62, new high in 14 years.

fed has only just started to cut rates, QE about to start.

enjoy your stacks!

1. Probability of a U.S. Government Shutdown
What the market / forecasts imply


Recent sources suggest the odds of a shutdown are quite elevated:


Polymarket (a prediction market) places the probability in the ~ 65-70% range. Newsweek


Earlier odds were lower (~45%) but have been rising. Newsweek+1


Political reporting suggests that, as of now, there is no clear path to avoid a shutdown via a continuing resolution or full appropriations, making a shutdown more likely. Fed News Network+1


The Senate has rejected key stopgap funding proposals, raising the likelihood of operational lapse. PBS+1


So, a reasonable (but not certain) estimate is that there is ~60&ndash 70% chance of a partial government shutdown starting October 1, unless last-minute dealmaking intervenes.
Key caveats


Shutdowns often get averted at the eleventh hour (i.e. in the &ldquo last minute&rdquo ).


A short shutdown (a few days) is less damaging than a prolonged one.


The impact depends heavily on how comprehensive the shutdown is (which agencies are impacted) and how long it continues.


The political will to avoid economic fallout is strong, which sometimes leads to compromises.
2. Likely Impacts on Gold Price & Markets


When thinking about how a shutdown might affect gold and broader markets, the effects tend to come via sentiment, risk premium, and interest rates more than fundamental demand for gold per se.
How a shutdown tends to affect markets


Increased uncertainty / risk premium


A shutdown raises political and policy uncertainty. That often prompts investors to shift toward &ldquo safe haven&rdquo assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, or cash.


It can delay data releases (e.g. employment, inflation), making the Federal Reserve&rsquo s path for rates less clear. Pepperstone+2Reuters+2


Disruptions to regulatory agencies, corporate filings, and government services can cause friction in markets. Reuters+1


Rates and yield curve dynamics


With weaker economic activity (if shutdown lingers), bond yields might fall (especially short-term) as investors expect weaker growth or more dovish monetary policy.


A flattening or inverted yield curve could result if long-term rates don&rsquo t fall as much.


Lower real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) tend to favor gold, since gold carries no yield.


Gold&rsquo s safe-haven appeal


Gold often benefits from &ldquo flight to safety&rdquo flows when risk is rising.


But historical evidence is mixed &mdash during past shutdowns, gold had modest or even muted moves. Some shutdowns gave gold an early bump others saw little consistent trend. Gold Price Forecast


In the current environment, gold is already trading near record highs, so further gains might require very strong tailwinds. Bloomberg+2Reuters+2
Possible magnitudes & scenarios


Here&rsquo s how different durations or severities might translate into gold / market outcomes:
Shutdown Scenario Likely Market Effects Implications for Gold
Short shutdown (a few days to ~1 week) Mild disruption, delayed data releases, some volatility, quick resolution Modest upside for gold (e.g. 1&ndash 3%), especially early in the shutdown, but gains may fade once resolution is expected
Moderate shutdown (1&ndash 2 weeks) More stress on confidence, possibly some weakness in economic indicators & risk assets, more hawkish/dovish confusion in rates Stronger boost for gold as investors seek safety, perhaps ~3&ndash 7% move (depending on sentiment)
Prolonged shutdown (> 2 weeks) Real economic drag (consumer confidence, delays in government contracts, lags in investment), fiscal stress, credit spreads may widen Could see material upside if risk aversion intensifies &mdash potentially +5&ndash 10% or more (though constrained by how far gold already is)
Shutdown + mass firings / cuts (intensified version) Sharper negative consumer/investor sentiment, possibly contagion into credit markets, disruptions to budgets & supply chains Could push gold significantly higher, especially if markets start pricing systemic risks or policy paralysis
Other interactions that might amplify or dampen impacts


If the shutdown delays key inflation or employment data, the Fed&rsquo s rate decisions may become more uncertain. That uncertainty can boost gold as real yields compress.


If the dollar weakens (due either to U.S. policy risk or capital flows), that strengthens gold (dollar‐ denominated gold becomes cheaper in other currencies).


If risk assets (equities, credit spreads) come under pressure, reallocations to &ldquo safe havens&rdquo can drive gold further up.


But if investors believe the shutdown will be short and benign, the &ldquo overhang&rdquo may already be priced in, limiting gold&rsquo s upside.
Probability-Weighted Projection (My Estimate)


Given ~60&ndash 70% odds of a shutdown, here&rsquo s a rough expected move for gold over the next 1&ndash 2 weeks (all else equal):


Base case (shutdown ~1 week): Gold might rise +2% to +5% from current levels due to safe-haven flows and risk premium.


Bear case (shutdown drags 2+ weeks): Gold could see +5% to +10% upside, particularly if real yields decline and there is broader market stress.

Malaysia gold reserves is kinda low or is BNM behind the curve.

Current Reserves: 38.88 tonnes
As of: June 30, 2025
Estimated Value: Around $3.2 billion (as of March 2025)
Reserves have grown from 36.39 tonnes in 2013, still way behind.

Thailand and Singapore hold the largest gold reserves among SEA countries.
I remember during the Asian Financial Crisis, Thai government asked it's citizens to sell gold to boost central banks reserve.

This post has been edited by aaronpang: Sep 29 2025, 04:23 PM

Poor faq no look at gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...tdown-fed-rates

good point, all gold stackers here know it.

bnm doesn't hold gold because it holds the view that gold is a non yielding asset, prefers to hold $ just enough to cover external debt and immediate months of imports.

well, things are changing, $ is falling... many central banks have been stacking gold but not BNM.

how it all unfolds in future, esp if china's gold backed digital yuan kicks in big into regional or global trade, we'll be around to witness it.

One line summary - BNM is late to the party.

record highs, again:

$3838/oz; RM520/g

RM4.124/$; DXY 97.92

good day ahead.

?We?re headed to a shutdown,? Vance says after Trump meeting with leaders ends
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 29 20254:49 PM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/trump-meeti...t-shutdown.html


Odds of a government shutdown rise to 70% in prediction markets
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 29 20252:06 PM EDTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/odds-of-a-g...on-markets.html


Government shutdowns usually have little economic impact. This time could be different
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 29 20253:59 PM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/29/government-...-different.html