Long term US bonds is very hated currently

Date $/oz RM/g RM/$

23.04.25 3342 474.00 4.410 (trump says no intention to fire powell; china tariffs to be reduced; bessent says china tensions to de-scalate soon)
20.04.25 3474 489.50 4.380 (trump threatens to fire powell; china warn others not to follow US tariffs; record high $3478/oz, RM490/g)
12.04.25 3236 460.48 4.423 (china raised US tariff to 125%; $ weakens to 99.78; 10yr yield rose to 4.497%; gold record price $3245/oz)
10.04.25 3088 444.80 4.480 (trump tariffs 90 days pause; china tariff 145%; US 10 yr yield dropped to 4.27% from 4.50% after pause)
03.04.25 3151 454.30 4.480 (trump hefty reciprocal tariffs announced; equities sink, gold price record $3169/oz, RM455/g)
11.03.25 2887 411.20 4.430 (retreat of US-EU equity markets; fed adopts "wait & see" for rate cuts; trump tariffs on china commence)
11.02.25 2919 419.60 4.458 (new trump tariffs on steel, aluminum; gold new high $2921/oz, RM419.8/g)
04.02.25 2817 403.70 4.456 (gold price hit new record high $2830/oz, RM407/g; tariffs on mexico, canada paused 1mth)
21.01.25 2722 392.00 4.477 (Trump2.0 inauguration, markets bracing for tariffs, bond yields falling, $ weakens)
10.01.25 2670 386.00 4.495 ("trump" inflation fears; china central bank continues buying bullion; incr in gold ETFs buying)
19.12.24 2603 376.90 4.503 (fed rate cut 25bps, signals slow down in 2025 cuts; DXY 108.1; carnage in disappointed equity markets)
08.11.24 2700 380.80 4.385 (fed rate cut 25bps)
07.11.24 2662 378.62 4.422 (trump win aftermath)

overbought, gold price returned to where it was a few days ago.

will the bulls rush in to buy into this dip?


how do u rate these two poker players?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 23 2025, 08:16 AM

The Fed attacks tone down....gold price drops slightly

-$200 from $3500

Dear Diary,

As of April year-to-date, Auntie has charged $230K on wearable jewellery. This includes a 33.63grams Liberty Head @$510/grams she gifted me, likely to quiet me. All the purchases are 'underwater' based on current gold price.

We have essentially exhausted our current year travel, leisure and non-discretionary budget.

Planning for high tea at The Peninsula Hotel overlooking The Bund is but a distant dream now. Hmmm, maybe change the venue to The Oriental Bangkok, might work?

PS. Im not suicidal.

Date $/oz RM/g RM/$

03.05.25 3241 444.12 4.261 (USA 1Q GDP -0.3%, speculation china is considering trade talks; big incr in NF payroll; DXY 100)
23.04.25 3342 474.00 4.410 (trump says no intention to fire powell; china tariffs to be reduced; bessent says china tensions to de-escalate soon)
20.04.25 3474 489.50 4.380 (trump threatens to fire powell; china warn others not to follow US tariffs; record high $3478/oz, RM490/g)
10.04.25 3088 444.80 4.480 (trump tariffs 90 days pause; china tariff 145%; US 10 yr yield dropped to 4.27% from 4.50% after pause)
03.04.25 3151 454.30 4.480 (trump hefty reciprocal tariffs announced; equities sink, gold price record $3169/oz, RM455/g)
11.03.25 2887 411.20 4.430 (retreat of US-EU equity markets; fed adopts "wait & see" for rate cuts; trump tariffs on china commence)
11.02.25 2919 419.60 4.458 (new trump tariffs on steel, aluminum; gold new high $2921/oz, RM419.8/g)
04.02.25 2817 403.70 4.456 (gold price hit new record high $2830/oz, RM407/g; tariffs on mexico, canada paused 1mth)
21.01.25 2722 392.00 4.477 (Trump2.0 inauguration, markets bracing for tariffs, bond yields falling, $ weakens)
10.01.25 2670 386.00 4.495 ("trump" inflation fears; china central bank continues buying bullion; incr in gold ETFs buying)
19.12.24 2603 376.90 4.503 (fed rate cut 25bps, signals slow down in 2025 cuts; DXY 108.1; carnage in disappointed equity markets)
08.11.24 2700 380.80 4.385 (fed rate cut 25bps)
07.11.24 2662 378.62 4.422 (trump win aftermath)

been a busy week... if u hv been following the main events.

.gold price briefly hit record high $3500 on apr 22.
.retreated to 3205 or -8.5% on may 1, closed at 3241 or -7.5% on may 3.
.china labor week holiday may 1-5.

watch these videos if u hv the time & interest: china gold ambitions? trump tariffs development; $ prospects, etc.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNNNmKydlQU&t=1536s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7o_2Zy3cnE&t=499s

china rule the market. And it go down because of the labour day long holiday in chaina. Be ready for the next wave. LoL

well... the "conspiracy theory" is that with the Shanghai gold exchange set up a year ago, it is trying to take come control of the gold market via the physical gold market while USA comex has been exerting huge influences with the highly leveraged paper gold market.

according to mcguire, this is connected to the BRICS long term plan to do its own grains exchange and cross border payment system to de$ise.

there's basel III compliance coming up on july 1; BRICS conference in Rio in mid july too.

how it all plays out will be very interesting and profoundly impt.

given the chaos with current trump tariffs, shakily rising US bond yields and a seemingly declining $, it hard not to hold some physical gold!

Gogogo

the informed gold bugs: andrew mcguire, peter schiff, andy schectman, michael oliver.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afz3m8YeTk8&t=518s

this video was released over the weekend. as described, the recent 8% correction from peak was likely due to month end US comex "froth rinsing" + the chinese pumped and dumped in the Shanghai gold FUTURES market before going on labor week holidays. they are back now pushing it up again today.

$3370/oz; RM459/g; RM4.235/$.

let's cheer it will rebreak 3400->3500 again soon.

watch... DXY 99.70, US 10 year yield 4.371%, Fed meeting may 6-7, trump tariffs effect start to take hold, no deals made.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: May 6 2025, 03:20 PM

7.5.24 During the May holidays in China's absence shorties in the West sold 10 million ozs and pulled gold down. Today, China is back to pull gold's price up another $100.

Auntie bought couple gold coins and 100 grams pamp cast. Either she fretting over Basel III deadline on 1 July or she's another of those 'newcomers' late into the game. Only time will tell.

midday 14 may 2025 Gold futures

Gold 3,238.14 -9.66 -0.30%

gold price has been v volatile lately, since hitting record high 3500.

$100 daily swings is now quite common!

1 jan 2636
22 apr 3500 +33%
1 may 3205 -8.4%
7 may 3438 +7.3%
15 may 3120 -9.5%
16 may 3240 +3.8%

as the tariff wars grind on, inflation fears rising, debt crisis looming, we will witness if gold price has peaked or just taken a healthy correction to move up higher in a new leg.

Late comers and FOMO crowd who just joined the bandwagon got slaughtered. They just became long term investors

ROFL. You just described my mom in law. She really FOMO and bought but thankfully just a bit

Already advice her through my wife, not to buy so fast because price is a bit expensive. But apparently her banker friend told her it's ok.

Now just hold long long lor. Hope it hits back to 3500 and above later on

Was quite obvious gold losing momentum liao. It made a double top formation

In all fairness, the late comers and FOMO comment is universally applicable to tulips, commodities, properties, precious metals, stocks, bonds, crypto, etc. (Best time to buy gold was 20++ years ago.)

From 1 jan 2025 till 16 may 2025, within 5.5 months our Malaysia ringgit has depreciated between 22-26% against gold.

Although today's xau/myr has dropped to $13.7K/oz; the 2025 year end projection is $14.9K/oz suggesting more weakness in ringgit.

Maybe the mother in law has better longer term foresight? Only time will tell.

based on the chart > 2980 > 2800

Ald happened ?

This guy summed it up quite nicely on the difference on your intention to hold gold as an INVESTMENT vs as a store of value. If you intend to hold yours to store value / preserve purchasing power, have a quick look:

https://youtu.be/efPzKsTaNXo?list=PLEU15fho...olFajKuprHjYZti