QUOTE(sylar111 @ Dec 5 2014, 01:19 PM)
As I said,
you probably went all quiet. The fact was at that time, anything could have happened from 1900 onwards. It could continue to go up even shoot up. If that happened, many people who head your advise would probably be cursing you.
No I did not say you were wrong. But then when it went to 1900, did you tell others to stop buying gold? Nope. Because at that point, there is a huge possibility you could be very wrong.
Again you did not read what I have said properly.
You compare Properties with Gold.
The thing is for properties, there is no fundamentals for the upward trend.
For Gold, there are fundamentals backing up why it should go up even based on simple supply and demand.
The problem is. You really take the spot gold price too seriously. As I said, the spot gold price does not reflect supply and demand. Spot Gold price is only based on sentiments of what the paper gold price means at that time. The people are not interested in the real gold as I have said countless time.
The thing is, you probably take the spot gold price seriously even though I have said countlessly it is not a reflection of real supply and demand.
Knowing how and why gold went to bull run, if you track back, you will find i was probably the only person in the tread advising gold price was unsustainable BEFORE gold price peak. like current property thread, no one listened hence cause me to take up behaviour economic study to understand the herd behaviour.
What would be true value of gold? determine by whom?
QUOTE(sylar111 @ Dec 5 2014, 02:54 PM)
Just because the fed does not value gold, does not mean others dun.
You are obviously myopic. Just looking at 1 side of the coin.
Many central banks every where are starting to accumulate gold silently or openly.
Obviously it shows that gold is in demand right now.
Central banks juggle their portfolio constantly include gold in the hope to maintain value.
QUOTE(sinbad2k @ Dec 5 2014, 03:41 PM)
I'm merely answering your question on "How many and how often central banks or anyone announce their gold bullion movement publicly?" since you initially posted "Given gold is on the downward trend, buying gold in the near future is likely to loss value for a number of years." to which I asked why then the Dutch Central Bank repatriated their gold instead of just selling it off. Why DCB go through the fuss since you said gold is on the downward trend and likely loses its value in coming years?
About your new question, "How will this gold relocating could effect gold price or fiat money?"(out of the blue?I'm not sure why it's linked to my previous post about Dutch central bank gold repatriation), maybe some other member here can give their views on it.
Anyways, in my opinion, from what I understood in short term, that action of repatriating gold from the Fed probably doesn't affect gold prices at all. But the fact that the Dutch did it, the Germans tried, the Swiss initiated a referendum, India, China and Russia stocking gold, it signifies something; they're starting to lose confidence in USD as the world reserve currency. All will still go well, if everyone still have faith in it but with so many USD printed(thru deficit spending), it's losing is value gradually and there will come a time when everyone loses their confidence in it since it's inherently just a piece of paper backed by nothing but the good faith of the US government i.e. the US Government assures you that it's worth something. Because everyone has started to lose faith(because of the currency printing), the USD loses its worth. Everyone will try to ditch USD but there's no world reserve currency to fall back to except for gold. That's when gold would rise.
Any input/comments from other members are welcomed.
Storing gold incur expenses and need infrastructure e.g. security, insurance, etc. the reason why german and dutch repatriated their gold back to their vault, could be ny fed is charging them more.
If removing gold from the u.s will have negative impact on us$; after german and dutch got their gold back, was there any positive impact on euro?
QUOTE(sylar111 @ Dec 5 2014, 06:25 PM)
There are already direct currency swaps agreement that China has arranged with other countries.
Yes, in the past, there isn't any other choices.
Now there is. The fact is, people are now looking for alternatives. Russia is accepting payments for oil using gold. The thing is, it already shows crack of the USD because generally, USD is supposed to be considered the petrodollar. Right now, people are starting to find alternatives.
No doubt that USD is rising. The reason why is because of QE being done by Euro and Japan. Also on news that China is lowering interest rates. This give the perception that USD is strong because Euro and Japan is weak.
USD can engage in the QE program because it is the reserve currency.
Unfortunately when Euro and Japan engages in this, it will not do well in the long term.
If gold was so "useless". Why is holland asking for the actual gold. Why not ask for USD? Why is Germany asking for the actual gold.
A gold backed currency gives confidence and strength to that currency because people do not have to worry about inflationary pressures. Right now, in our current system, because currency can be printed, there are lots of inflationary pressures associated with that currency. The thing is, keeping the currency for too long will result in your wealth being dwindled.
u.s subprime crisis in 2008 showed how much the world economy is depending on the u.s. as long as central banks and gomen are holding u.s$ in reserve and u.s bonds, u.s$ is irreplaceable.
This post has been edited by icemanfx: Dec 6 2014, 10:22 AM