QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jul 8 2014, 04:35 PM)
for the record, our interest rates did hit some 13% to 14%, and is now being bankrupt.. good time to restart the property market.. even is too far fetch.. but if one of the bank collapse or being taken over which is highly likely, then the story will fall perfectly.. perfecto..
Yes, it did hit 10% ++ at one time. And a lot of uncle and aunty who have been hoarding cash all these while were going around shopping for best Fixed Deposit rate in town..Haha, this only apply to those who are loaded with cash.
Nevertheless, I don't foresee OPR hitting 10% ++ that soon UNLESS a crisis happened again.
Currently rates are very low in the US, as low as 0.25%. A lot of foreign fund manager are borrowing money with low interest rate and then they are dumping those money into MGS which is giving them very good return like 3 -4 % depending on the bond tenure. (You can research more about the yield of MGS in the paper everyday).
The party will start to end when the Fed start to increase interest rate in US. Of course, this will happen slowly, gradually, but a lot of analyst forecast that rate will slowly normalize to 4% within the next few years. (I am quoting analyst here, so don't shoot me, hahahaha. Nobody knows the answer here as everything is constantly changing all the time)
When rate is about to hit 4%, all the foreign fund manager will start selling their holdings in MGS, and bring their money back to US. Keep in mind that more than 40% of MGS are currently been sold to foreign funds. In order to prevent massive outflow of fund, BNM will have no choice but to raise rates in order to keep up with the rate increase in US.