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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V7, UUU still trounced DDD

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icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 10:02 AM

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Vince Cable, the business secretary, proposed on Thursday that the Bank set a cap on mortgages at a ratio of no more than 3.5 times of salary, as opposed to five times income being offered now.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/j...on-house-bubble

Those we think bnm and locals are prudent and conservative in lending may need to reconsider.

In any bull run, be it stock, gold, etc, the longer it take to crash, the harder the crash. The seriousness of the crash could be indicated by this thread version number.




icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Jun 16 2014, 10:34 AM)
I see that it will not crash currently. Instead, I see genuine buyer (own stay, hong haul) still buying for kids, with parents. I see flippers stopping, and/or busy selling off as fast as they could the props they bought once VP. Still it will not be crash, maybe they take less profit due to government policy. Current pricing of new launches are future price, thus leave very little room for substantial appreciation unless previous launch price point.

I see SoHo/Small-studios, turned into MINI HOTELS, perhaps whole floor renovated. A new type of short/long stay, with good service and high-speed WiFi and even privatised room-service (if that property do not have such service already) Effectively turning it into some kind of TIME-SHARE kind of stay. But this is in reverse order of TIME-SHARE.  This is due to so many of them swarming the market. Good enough for short-stay (1 - 5 years) but not for a family of 4. SOHO will become a sort of 'PIT STOP' prior to a bigger (approx 1025 - 1500 sq ft) living space.

Just thinking out loud here.
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Parents assist their kids with downpayment is common. Those rich parents that could buy for their kids are likely to have multiple properties, would have bought earlier. Realistically, number of parents buying for kids currently is very low.

Converting surplus soho to hotels is only possible if the whole floor is owned or leased to a operator.

icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 16 2014, 11:25 AM)
How sure are u???  blink.gif  blink.gif  blink.gif
Because your parent didnt buy for u then u think parents buying for kids very low??  tongue.gif  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
Vice versa, I think parents buying for kids these days are very high......  whistling.gif  whistling.gif  whistling.gif
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Statistically, 90% of parents couldn't afford to buy for their kids.

icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 12:22 PM

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If parents are truly buying for their children now means there will be less demand for property in the future.

icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Jun 16 2014, 01:03 PM)
The ultra rich guys are of different league compare to most of us. They can buy cash and hold it for years.
They also have the bargaining power on the terms and conditions and prices too.
They take up 10 properties at once for price way, way cheaper than market price. And for only one reason ... these ultra rich are businessmen/women. Their REAL asset is their business. Properties are just to "park" their cash for hedging against inflation or tax. If their businsss go down the hole, they may need to liquidate their properties to pay off or collateralize their properties for cash.

Bankers are not property manager, they are money managers. They prefer cash (or equivalent) to balance their balance sheet.

At "injury" time, the overleveraged will suffer the most. Businessmen (not all) have higher chances to survive.
Look at Tan Sri William Cheng ... owed Rm2 billion since 1997 ... still living the luxury life.  drool.gif
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Ultra rich are more likely to buy in sg, london and australia.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Jun 16 2014, 01:56 PM)
No need Billionaire pama lah, i see some meat seller, small shop ownwer, businessman also buy 1 property for each of their kid, fully paid, renovated & furnished.
If like this, current property supply where got enough?! better snap up before pasar malam stall owners, hawker stall owners, etc jump on the band wagon.

QUOTE(jolokia @ Jun 16 2014, 01:56 PM)
I notice some property launch in 2013 & Q1 2014 still can't finish selling, good location but price slight above average of that area, seem like buyer really picky, they will compare under construction with newly complete unit, no more die must buy, any garbage also people buy, 10-15% extra also they will give it a miss.

Market on 2nd half & GST doesn't look like going to have significant impact on market sentiment.  rclxms.gif
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Developers are keeping these units for r.e agents to cari makan else r.e. agents got no energy to blow water.

Price doubled in 3 years, what is 6% gst?

QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jun 16 2014, 02:09 PM)
1 fren oledi prepared 2 units per kid with cashi. No crash so soon la
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Your fren so behind one, heard some are buying for their grandchildren.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 16 2014, 02:13 PM
icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(RenuPlus @ Jun 16 2014, 02:15 PM)
Agree with you bro...I believe parents buying for kids these days are higher as their kids couldn't afford to get one with the current property price..Hahahahha... biggrin.gif
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If these kids can't afford to buy in the future, where to find suiyi to subsale?

QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Jun 16 2014, 02:16 PM)
Now no crash, just stagnant, again. U know the saing, STILL WATER RUNS DEEP. U never know during this period. JENG JENG JENG!!!!! cue creepy music
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Flippers have super long holding power, waiting to catch suiyi in deep water.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 16 2014, 02:22 PM
icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jun 16 2014, 02:29 PM)
Yalo. I oso dunno y he buys cashi. If get loan can strike great grandkids tim. Btw he bot London Aussie Singa n Malai. 1 each in Malai 1 each around the world. I dun und the strategy.
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You mean your fren can't afford nyc, monaco, marbella?

QUOTE(kradun @ Jun 16 2014, 02:31 PM)
Bro it is not too late doing it now. I am buying for my yet to born kids as well. By the time they go university the rental could be use to cover their living expenses.
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If your kid study in overseas than one unit won't be enough.

QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Jun 16 2014, 02:37 PM)
Buying for your yet to born kids, or yet to get mistresses? I hope you put it under your name. Which brings me to another topic. Divorce rates are high. This is also a time when you may find motivated sellers selling at 'reasonable' price compared to market. I believe a lot of so-called auction prop spawn from this sad phenomenon. END OF TOKOK
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One where got enough for mistresses? Need a few more so rental collection would be enough for her upkeeping.

QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 16 2014, 02:38 PM)
Now then u start to see the big picture???  tongue.gif  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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Forgot to add spm school leavers, mlm people, insurance salesman, etc to the number.

QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 16 2014, 02:39 PM)
Boss, when one is full loaded with cash..... u dont really need "deep" strategy.....  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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Who keep cash?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jun 16 2014, 03:00 PM
icemanfx
post Jun 16 2014, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 16 2014, 03:30 PM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif
Getting fustrated already??  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
True enough.... these are the bigger group of prop buyers..... Well, their income depend more of their "hard work" and "effort"..... Not so much of fix income earner..... These group of ppl mostly believe in "themselves" more than those "reports"....... They come with lower education level, do not kno much about "economy statistic"..... So they jus do basing on what they can and they hav.....
Whereas, for those highly educated ppl like u.... u wont do something without studying those "economy statistic"...... U scare of becoming a laughingstock if your investment fails..... Scare ppl criticising or laughing u doing a "stupid thing" as u are highly knowledgeable or educated...... Scare ppl asking u why doing something against the economy trend..... and etc.....  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
So the advantage of not highly educated ppl when an investment fails is that they hav the ability of giving "an excuse"; "I dont know woh", "I dont know mah", "I not educated mah".......  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
Good luck to u......  icon_rolleyes.gif  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Implying you are a member of this group of people.

icemanfx
post Jun 17 2014, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jun 17 2014, 12:36 PM)
True. At least got property. If children stupid, at least you have house for them to stay. Just put the house into Trust.
Those talk is nonsense. If children can study, get their own scholarship. Else study in the country  laugh.gif
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If kids are stupid, will finish even 10m inheritance.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jun 17 2014, 03:48 PM)
True in financial sense.

But human behaviour don't always based on financial sense. Same like people driving beemer merc vs proton. People stay in penthouse vs normal unit in same condo. Branded shirt vs normal shirt. These people who spent on these items not based on financial sense
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Sour grape.

QUOTE(Rabel @ Jun 17 2014, 04:13 PM)
Boss, can I know y u think dr in UK sure can buy few houses in mal ?.
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Only if you know how much doctor can earn in the u.k.

QUOTE(SamsengFan @ Jun 17 2014, 04:16 PM)
Why eat nasi lemak when plain rice can fill stomach?
Keep every cent,  put it into property and flip.
Become rich. 

When go vacation,  wear branded and talk loud loud.

Hence nowadays we can see a lot of ppl acting like above when all it matters is, ROI.

How much can a scientist makes? How much can a doctor makes? My property agent makes more than that.  Etc etc

Some say 'Money cannot buy class'. To each own I guess.

Oops.  Out of topic
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Sour grape.

icemanfx
post Jun 17 2014, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jun 17 2014, 05:27 PM)
You must be 1 big sour grape because you missed your C class or 3 series  tongue.gif
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More likely, you never own one before.

icemanfx
post Jun 17 2014, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jun 17 2014, 05:41 PM)
You are correct. Never own the C class and 3 series. Both are too small for me. I got the bigger models  thumbup.gif
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Given your credibility, the best selling car in mys is maybech.

icemanfx
post Jun 17 2014, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jun 17 2014, 06:15 PM)
Now trying to discredit me for something I didn't say ?  tongue.gif

Again, you are better off getting over with the "5 stages of grief". You can think better after that. But apparently you are still stuck in denial and anger stage. My sincere advice to you
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The issue is your so called sincere advise is worth as much as your blow water.
icemanfx
post Jun 17 2014, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jun 17 2014, 07:43 PM)
You will understand 1 day. Hope it is not too late for you in 7-8 years later with only 2-3 hundred thousand cash in your bank but the house price double again from now. At that time, you will remember there is a guy in LYN with some aeroplane name  tongue.gif
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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Jun 17 2014, 07:56 PM)
No offence to icemanfx but I support bro showtime747 statement
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Only if the bull run will continue forever.

icemanfx
post Jun 18 2014, 12:42 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Jun 17 2014, 09:26 PM)
Anyway this just a personal opinion because I think u are too cautious and very high IQ.
Usually to be success in investment I think EQ is more important .
One person is too intelligent will think much of things and will miss a lot of golden opportunities.
Again this is not personal I hope u don't mind and just totally my 2 cent unworth opinion. Might be wrong
Coz I not highly educated  smile.gif  smile.gif
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Buying on EQ is gut feeling, is not dissimilar to gambling.

QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Jun 17 2014, 09:33 PM)
I think bull run is not forever..but the most important is when crash who got ball go into ring. U will choose keep cash wait others people to die or take your money out n buy?
Most of the cautious one will wait the price to bottom but he can't predict when is bottom and when he realised the big shark already sapu all in market n left the bone to him.
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Given recent track record in the u.s. and europe, will buy when properties are on auction in bulk.

icemanfx
post Jun 18 2014, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Jun 18 2014, 01:11 AM)
Your cucu will blame you why never buy when the price is cheap. Auction house feng sui no good.
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So you blamed your grandpa for didn't buy plantation in kl for a few hundred $ per acre.

icemanfx
post Jun 18 2014, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(nokomis @ Jun 18 2014, 10:22 AM)
I think it takes a lot of guts or lots of excess capital to take on something along the edges of BB, around Petaling Street or in Chow Kit. I heard stories about people getting surprisingly good yields on really beaten up props. You'll need the yield because it might take a while to see any capital appreciation.

Still, I kind of see how these props might be the same as buying plantation land for a few hundred Rm a hectare. Years ahead, the prices now may seem insane. Still, good fundamentals have a way of playing out much faster than anyone would guess.

Same goes for big flats in older well-kept buildings with big grounds. The yields are solid and they become a scarcer commodity with each passing year as new flats get smaller and smaller. You still see really big flats in MK or places like that for Rm500-Rm600 psf and a bit above. The new flats are half the size at twice the price.
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QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Jun 18 2014, 10:45 AM)
Interesting on soaking up older properties. If one has cash, then yes it may be a better strategy seeing that most LAUNCH PROPS are selling super-future (yes, no longer future looking at the PSF these days) prices. Leaving Sub-sale older properties goes (???) huh? (if older properties can speak!) Maybe there is MORE ROOM to appreciate for this older and under-valued props, as compared to newly launch and under-con props (with super-future price). And the gist of it is that only ppl with strong financials and cash can soak these up. HUAT AH! Where may I ask these locations are if you don't mind sharing.
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Believe it is consensus that;
New launch are priced at future price and sold out.
Subsale of older property is low in volume and price.

What does it implying?

icemanfx
post Jun 19 2014, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jun 19 2014, 05:50 PM)
You are "somebody" to him, if he hates you. I don't mind anyone hates me on the internet, as I am "somebody". Same as love, just the opposite. In fact, I would be proud if someone hates me on the internet. That means I have achieved something just with my keyboard  thumbup.gif
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Only a unloved child and a person avoided by friends in the real world would do that online. Suggest you to seek medical assistance as this illness could lead to serious crime.

icemanfx
post Jun 19 2014, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jun 19 2014, 06:43 PM)
Think another way, he bot 3 units earlier on and sold 2 now to pay the balance of 1. He already got a house with morgate free. So nice....
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Believe this is what most if not all flippers hope for. Wonder how many succeed?

icemanfx
post Jun 20 2014, 08:27 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jun 19 2014, 09:29 PM)
why bother how many succeed, just to make sure you are the ONE!!!  icon_rolleyes.gif
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If this formula is workable, why not repeat 10 or 30 times?

icemanfx
post Jun 20 2014, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Jun 20 2014, 07:23 AM)
Unloved account clerk.

It is no  fun  too to ask you to shut up as your skin is too thick.

No fun. But someone need to remind you u can have fun time in kopitiam. Here only serious disscussion.

Unless you have the proof accusing ppl this and that. Mitress la. Secretary la. tongue.gif
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A unloved child will provoke and antagonize others to give him attention. A sickness that need urgent medical attention else could lead to serious crime.


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