Last week, Brunei's Department of Economic Planning and Development (JPKE) reported that crude oil export was down 17.7% and LNG (liquefied natural gas) export fell 3.5% year-on-year for January 2014. Today, it reveals a worsening figures: for February, oil export plunged 25.7% while LNG export dived 11.1%. The country's total exports for the month dropped 15.1% due to decreases in major exports of oil and gas, according to statistics released. This is more serious than it was in January, when total exports fell 10.6%. Oil and gas account for over 90% of Bruneian exports.


Data shows that something is wrong with Brunei starting September 2013

International trade plummeted 12% on the same period. This is again more severe than the January figure (-8.9%). Merchandise imports however, rose by 6.9% from B$219 million in January to B$234.2 million in February 2014. As Brunei's own industrial output declines, it is buying more mineral fuels, miscellaneous transactions and crude materials from other countries, of whose imports all witnessed a sharp rise. About 20% of Brunei's imports came from Singapore, followed by Malaysia at 17% and the United States at 8.5%.

In 2013, Brunei recorded a -1.8% full year GDP growth, the only country in Asia to experience an economic decline. GDP has been falling since Q3 2013, where it dropped 9.7% and Q4 2013, where it again fell 5.3%. The last time Brunei registered a GDP increase was in Q2 2013, a rise of 1.5%. Its currency, the Brunei dollar (BND), remains stable however, gaining 0.67% so far this year against the U.S. dollar. This is because of the currency interchangeable agreement between Brunei and Singapore where both peg their currency on a 1:1 basis. As Singapore is a more prominent economy of the two, Brunei's monetary policies are basically dictated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).


Statistics again reveal something is wrong since September 2013, one month later, in October 2013, the Sultan of Brunei announced the implementation of Sharia

This is quite a problem for Brunei. The economy of Singapore is robust, as shown by a 4.1% growth in GDP last year, an impressive rate for developed economy. To fight inflation Singapore allows a gradual appreciation of its currency, so to make imports cheaper. The island-city has been shifting towards high-tech and R&D industries, which mean that an eventual stronger currency would only have a limited impact on its export competitiveness, as long as the technological leads remain. That isn't much of an issue because Singapore is the most high tech nation in Southeast Asia. It spent US$8.6 billion on R&D last year, as compared to Malaysia US$3.3 billion and Indonesia US$2.4 billion - ASEAN second and third biggest spenders.

Brunei's economy however, is faltering, having been in a state of stagnation since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. While it may be true that by forcing into the Singaporean policy of currency appreciation, imports become cheaper, but inflation is not an utmost concern for Brunei, since there hasn't been much economic growth for years. The latest stats from JPKE shows that Brunei actually had deflation, with CPI being -0.1% on March. This is where Brunei and Singapore's monetary goal conflicted. Singapore is fighting inflation, while Brunei is not. Following Singapore's currency appreciation policy may not be in Brunei's economic interest.


Singapore-Brunei currency peg: damned if hold on, damned if delink

An unnecessary currency appreciation may be catastrophic to Brunei. It doesn't possess the technological advantage, and whatever non-oil industries Brunei has left could be devastated by the expensive currency. This was proven in Brunei's latest trade statistics, where machinery and transport equipment exports was down 29.8%, miscellaneous manufactures down 24%, chemicals down 16.5%, and miscellaneous transactions down 86.7%. A stronger currency is apparently hurting Brunei's export competitiveness.

That said, Brunei couldn't risk delinking or terminating its currency agreement with Singapore either. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) warns that Brunei's dwindling oil reserves may pose a severe threat to its economy. The country's oil and gas exports will decrease by 3.5 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) between now and 2035 due to the maturing of its main fields, ADB said in a report. That is a 45% drop. Without adequate oil and gas revenues, Brunei's economy may not be sustainable. Therefore the country is basically trapped. Based on its current economic performance, if it ever try to depeg from the Singapore dollar, Brunei's currency would plunge sharply to the extent of destabilizing its economy. It is apparently aware of that, two weeks ago, Singapore and Brunei signed an agreement reaffirming their monetary peg.


SOS:

http://bt.com.bn/business/2014/05/02/brune...ports-down-15-1

http://brudirect.com/0-national/national/n...s-this-february

To malaysians who dislike living in malaysia, want hudud and don't care about country's economy, brunei is perfect place for you.

Brunei ke arah negara taliban!

Taliban incoming.. Wait until US came and steal all your wasted oil resource.

what will Brunei become after oil demand is getting lesser and lesser? . It become Singapore?

No way, no dumfuk investor will wanna invest in a taliban country.

they are saving it first. wait till the price skyrocket, then sell.


i think so. luls.

hope their oil faster finish, wan to c hw a country depended so much on oil suddenly hav no oil n collapse

It is too late for them.

they can't. you think it is petronas?

brunei's oil is controlled by shell. shell is a public company, it is responsible to shareholders in terms of profitability. it won't play such game.

So many meleis worship this Brunei, go ahead n pindah now

so how

when their economy collapse in the future what will happen

they will come and populate east malaysia?

or is it happening already
buy land in another country and migrate

inb4 ini semua benda duniawi...gua confirm masuk syurga... afterlife... hngggggg

so bila lagi nak pindah brunei ni? it's heaven for you all. hudud implemented already. best country.

Already collapsed.
chemical industry drop over 90%, petroleum industry nearly dried up not sure how long it can sustain, and now relying on lng which is also not in good condition.
no other industry supporting their economy and burden by currency policy, can't compete at all with other SEA nation.

Worry Not !! The GOV of Brunei has discuss and come up with the the brilliant ideas to counter the Economy crisis. That is to implement HUDUD, hopefully the god will shine upon them once more.

i wan it to completely dry up, n they lose 95% of their gdp, then dat time will b fun to watch

So when sh1t hits the fan. what will the royal family do?

just run off and don't give a sh1t about the rakyat?

think their priority is to go Heaven.

As worse it come they will just join Malaysia.

Just a small hiccups, no worry. Brunei can withstand that.

if they NEVER cancel HUDUD, it will collapse.

i visited this country many times, it's clean, peaceful, moderate and of course... boring. i wonder if this is the reason (oil running dry) the king applied hudud because oil is running out and he scared
people will revolve or something?

This post has been edited by ander7724: May 2 2014, 12:32 PM

sure protest 1...

you sir got a point

Yup, one of the reason the king go for hudud is to control his ppl from going revolve him.
but how long can he maintain it is a big question to answer.
as he have limited money to run a country.

Dun think so lor.

This post has been edited by yinchet: May 2 2014, 12:39 PM

What if we like living here and care about the economy but just dislike the gomen and are unhappy that they rigged the election to win with a minority vote?

Oddly enough, I want GST though...suck it poorfags.

More like when in desperate times, religion is often used to quell dissent and give folks a false sense of superiority.

sumpah tak kesah pun...

I believe poor fag wont be hit that badly unless they are going for expensive stuff.
Those rich fags with lots pf luxury car going to hit badly with already expensive road tax, insurance and now maintaining the car going to be more expensive.

Lately taiwan ppl so powerful to show its politician who the master.

So how does hudud solves this problem? Oh wait it's superior law right

gift from god for implementing hudud, god is great!

how much were u paid to bash brunei? must u bash it once a week? boring la for ppl in k to read it everyday. attack other country la.

Thats the thing when religion becomes law. You dont get to question religious dogma.

It's a JV. The government owns half of the company.

I tak sokong hudud pun...but I dun see what's the fuss behind this. PAS want to implement, they are welcome to try. I dun see why people are blaming DAP for this. This is a democracy after all, and PAS has a right to put forward its own motions.

If anything, I blame UMNO and BN. PAS are a minority party. Hudud will not pass without their support.

Good. Richfags also escape paying tax via various sneaky methods. Now your BMW and Mercedes and handbags all get tax. AHAHAHA.

I drive small car with good fuel economy, dun like to buy branded stuff, lead simple lifestyle with some geeky tech toys (kena GST, but that's OK...I still can afford)...I happy.

Everyone else can suck it.

brunei only 700k population la..why malaysian not migrate there become rich? they say brunei=Norway

Employed or assigned best people for the job is important.
Countries that doesn't follow this rule can see their going down one by one.
The one will suffer are rakyat. Even if country bankrap, persons in power still have biliions in their banks.

Brunei has enough oil lah................it has not even gone deep sea.
Don't know why you people talk kok.

400k

oil won't finish, problem is going deeper and deeper the cost would be higher and higher. minus payments to gov't cronies minus tributes to sultan minus this and that not really cost-effective to invest in such operation.

and brunei already go deep sea, those are where most of its fields lie. beyond that is disputed territories, china will go wacko



This post has been edited by rivost: May 2 2014, 01:19 PM

Then you are wrong. The time is not right yet but it will go deep because margins are high.

Heard of Gumusut kakap?

#biblethumping

80% of its fields are already in deepwater, so how deep to go again?

next time oil hit $150 the shale revolution will be at full force, since the technology is already available.

adui....Ampa and Champion are in shallow waters lah.....These 2 fields have much hydrocarbons. Bolom talk about Magpie and Gannet yet.

Seria onshore is still producing despite being the oldest field. It has produced more than 1B barrel till date.

If oil does reach $150 a barrel, Upstream companies have all the more incentive to go deep.

This post has been edited by feynman: May 2 2014, 01:31 PM

10 yrs ago i studied geography 600k, where 200k?

then is it good if i invest company like nam cheong? opportunity to become rich to become rich if invest in this kind of company?

This post has been edited by leonhart88: May 2 2014, 01:35 PM

they are already extracting those for decades. you think they are still untapped?

also, aren't you forgetting something?

Obviously you did not study hard enough.....go study again.

Adui....first you got shallow waters wrong......now you get where the delineation of international borders wrong.

Those two fields are still producing and they still have recoverable reserves. Which comes back to the point where they have not gone deep sea. Production is still in the shallow waters.

Brunei has deep sea territory. Deep water starts at 150 meters and more. Those areas are not disputed territories. Heard of block L and M ?

This post has been edited by feynman: May 2 2014, 01:41 PM

it is complex, i saw some data saying 600k+ too. but the most widely accepted is 400k.

ever heard an expat said it could possibly be 600k+, but brunei is a country where race is very important. their so-called 'national philosophy' states that malays must be the dominant race, so the demographics can be 'tweaked' to drop foreigners if needed. after all, they already made half their chinese stateless thus the % of malay citizens look very high.

This post has been edited by rivost: May 2 2014, 01:55 PM

Hudud supporters can go Brunei

Yeah then our ringgit peg to sgd 1= rm1 = bnd1

win!

so when is malaysia absorbing brunei?

They will become the next afghanistan, luckily its brunei who is going down this path. If not, malaysia will follow suite.

didn't quite bother to measure the meters when looking at the map.

you referring to this?



let's hope they found a good reserve there but even so petronas will share some profit ratio as agreed in 2009.

in addition, some of their problem is internal. brunei increasingly demand a lot of terms from shell, such as local employment quota, even though the locals are rather inefficient. they have also setup a national oil company (http://www.pb.com.bn/) and start making things harder and harder for shell. so don't expect shell to make any further big investment. it may drag on for even decades.

car is very cheap, some family 4-5 cars

hmm, no.

malaysia is still ok. brunei is horribly inept

their national oil company may even fail and petronas swallows up brunei's reserves. maybe badawi already predicted that last time?

L and M are not developed yet.

LBD is certainly a core concern but Shell still has enough motivation to stick around. The margins are good.

Without revealing too much, PB is nothing lah.

yup Those are the two blocks.

what ? need to feed another 400k ppl ?

I think Brunei has no choice but to depeg its Brunei dollar from the Singapore dollar. Singapore's policy of continued appreciation of its currency is only in the interest of Singapore, so it is silly for Brunei to continue suffering economically with too strong a currency like in the case of Greece.

This Brunei problem is a good lesson for those ignorant Malaysians who often wrongly think that having a strong currency is always a good thing.

pb is nothing? they are awarded the block despite not having the technical expertise. either dependent on petronas or project stuck.

that is the thing, shell has good motivation to stay but no longer so confident or determine to make big investment. this can also partly be attributed to brunei's political issue. therefore you have brunei's negative oil and gas stats now. the sultan will not change his stance i can tell you.

This post has been edited by rivost: May 2 2014, 02:09 PM

What is with you and all the Brunei deteriorating thread, you got beef with Hassanal Bolkiah?

lol, still see many cainis here.
shouldnt we pindah spore now?.

lets bet the rate of an independent bnd?

1bnd = 1rm?

Hudud FTW. so they can claim money & properties of people just like the Nazis did on the jews.

That would be too drastic. A 20% devaluation from the Singapore dollar may probably do the work.

Refining Industry?

malaysia is actually pretty undervalued against SGD.
1BND to 1.8MYR should be good.

you guys dont tok tok bad about brunei ok!, they holy pipur!, god will help them..o wai

why malaysia wanna curi from brunei? malaysia also has steal sipadan and ligitan from Indonesia, i wonder sabah and sarawak stolen from where? because demographic of malaysia too far.

soh diaorang merge dengan malaysia pastu election time soh diorang gi undi PAKATAN RAKYAT. BN menang election kerana kampung feldA/gov servant /sabah sarawak support BN. Kalau populasi Brunei tu mampu mengatasi support 3 ni PAKATAN BOLEH MEMERINTAH.

Taktik ni DAP nak pakai sekiranya dapat majoriti power di malaysia kelak. Gabungan DAP dan PAP mampu mengatasi majoriti melayu islam tu sendiri

If Brunei change the pegging from Singapore dollar to the Malaysian ringgit then, in theory,it would benefit Sarawak and Sabah because trade between Singapore and Brunei would go down due to currency conversion costs between Singapore dollar and Brunei dollar.

Say properly.. Sipadan and Ligitan is belongs to Malaysia.. Not stealing from Indonesia.. Okay?

Bruneian will find it expensive to spend their money in Malaysia then..

Seems to be a common trend whenever a country becomes more Islamized.

When economy is in trouble, currency devaluation is the price to pay to get back up again. It's a good tool anyway. Countries that don't have this tool (example: Greece and Brunei) would have to suffer for a considerably longer time compared to countries that control over their own currencies (example: Thailand and Malaysia).

But how Hudud law can control ppl from revolve him??

I thought that is the islamic law??

If prabowo become president in 2014, Indonesia will attack Malaysia to get back Ambalat, sipadan and ligitan

http://politik.kompasiana.com/2013/03/03/p...bah-538755.html

risau apa ??? langit nanti jatuh duit ma...u tak percaya ??

things hapend to negara brunei will hapend to pengeluar minyak lain?

what benefit?so brunei will import from sabah and sarawak? sabah and sarawak have what? what I know Singapore will find it cheaper to import from Brunei

it'll be better for them to peg against myr as a devaluation tool rather than a free float / managed float without significant capital controls
better as in less negative shocks in the system.

either way, malaysia is inclined to benefit on the increasing trade dependence on neighbors, that includes import of primary goods, and export of talent.

Are you in Brunei?

This is where you have absolutely no idea how things are in Brunei. But it really doesn't matter, because even if you knew more, it won't change a thing.

Due to confidentiality requirements. I can't divulge more than what I have shared.

If you ask Sabah and Sarawak have what, then you should ask Singapore have what? It's all about trade. If a merchant in Johor finds if cheaper to buy from Singapore than Kuala Lumpur, it would buy from Singapore. What are the considerations involved? Transportation costs and currency conversion costs. Sabah and Sarawak are nearer to Brunei than Singapore, so the transportation costs can be lower and with a lower currency conversion costs due to the pegging of the Brunei dollar to the Malaysian ringgit, then the change may benefit Sabah and Sarawak. The only problem standing in the way of better trade is our current cabotage policy.

http://www.sapp.org.my/economy/110113_fmt_...tage_policy.asp

baik tak cakap anything at all, waste time reading this only

Tak suka jangan baca lah. I'm paid enough to not engage in unsubstantiated talks.

This post has been edited by feynman: May 2 2014, 02:55 PM

Indonesia(Kalimantan) is even nearer to Brunei.

Yes, it is better for Brunei to peg to the ringgit because Singapore is obsessed with keeping its dollar strong in order to combat inflation and therefore a further rise of the Singapore dollar may cause more misery for Brunei.

Why so much negativity for Brunei? Hopefully, their economy will recover soon

Nothin to do with cainis la brother, it just these meleis know over there the Sultan will spoonfeed his rakyat, so these meleis worship him. Summore they have hudud. I know some of my frens who mati2 want migrate Brunei.

lol.

its ok, you keep your secret, mr. FBI agent. i'm not interested to hear.

This post has been edited by rivost: May 2 2014, 03:24 PM

The moment u declare u are Taliban Bako Haram state, you are doomed

What Brunei have now is the wetdream Msia affirmative action policies wish to achieve.

msia sure is happy to have such lab rat

and boy, they are fast copier. suddenly all rules such as non-muslims banned from 35 words, non-muslims cannot drink in public overseas, etc coming out.

Brunei mampus gua sikit pun tak kisah. I think the Sultan might migrate and leave elsewhere with his money.