Bursa Traders V5

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Bursa Traders V5

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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 03:46 PM Return to original view \| Post #1
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	ok i was wrong
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 03:55 PM Return to original view \| Post #2
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Apr 29 2014, 03:27 PM) The redder the shares, the more talk 3 talk 4 here. give chance to buy mar. buy buy buy
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 04:24 PM Return to original view \| Post #3
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 29 2014, 11:36 AM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « spring onion Want to show you this.... This is the sample table... as you can see from the table... every year.... 1. Q1 profits < Q4 2. Q2 profits < Q1 3. Profits only picks up in Q3 and Q4. Why? it's seasonal. such characteristic happens in a lot of companies.... for example also... say beer sale... they always increase in festive seasons.... remember for an exporting company to US, Q1 and Q2 are the 'slower' period. And when you gauge a company, how do you gauge it? You gauge the company's progress each year right? The most important thing for shareholders is to see profit grow each year.... and to help this, financials whiz, uses yardsticks like TTM or trailing twelve month earnings.... ok la and due to your strong comment i decided to top up homer. and guess what? i bought my long forsaken son marco too. don't ask me why. i just feel right too buy it.... i see all my friend syok syok wear g shock, i cannot tahan go buy it guess my portfolio would be 80 share:20 cash
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 04:41 PM Return to original view \| Post #4
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	boon3 let give example, company A quarter financial result 2013q1 profit 30m 2013q2 profit 20m 2014q1 profit 50m 2014q2 profit 40m q2 q-q comparison = +100% previous current comparison = -20% how would you rate this company then? would you still rate it as 100% growth in the coming quarter? what if company B: 2013q1 profit 40m 2013q2 profit 30m 2014q1 profit 50m 2014q2 profit 40m how would you rate then??? addon: since he no reply me yet, i add another company C company C 2013q1 profit 40m 2013q2 profit 20m 2014q1 profit 80m 2014q2 profit 40m how would you rate it then? 40-20=20m 80-40=40m This post has been edited by spring onion: Apr 29 2014, 04:49 PM
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 04:46 PM Return to original view \| Post #5
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 29 2014, 04:44 PM) Why bother comparing with last year when the price reflect whats going on now and future. because boon was mentioning about seasonal business cycle mar. want to understand abit about it too
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 04:51 PM Return to original view \| Post #6
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 29 2014, 04:49 PM) Aiyooo... no need report me what you buy or what you sell. Me not the reporting center. Homer? I just laid down the facts as it is hor.... I no say buy... I only ask my kawan Gark to sell..... aiya i just want to share with you so you can record in your 555. perhaps you can do some judgment about the share too for yourself
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 05:07 PM Return to original view \| Post #7
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 29 2014, 04:59 PM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Fuyohhhh.... only A, B and C.... no D, no E? Actually fundamentals, you should ask gark... His England explain much better... If it is hard to see, use it with TTM. As long as the TTM numbers is better than the last year fy number... you know growth will be there.... Company A... Yes. clearly a growth company. Company B... Also growth company... Same Company C. Use TTM, trailing twelve months. you can see better. for example again... last fy 2013 eps 7.56 sen ttm eps now 10.25 sen in this case, the TTM assumption is Q3 and Q4 earnings is constant. and if it is constant TTM eps is 10.52... which means, there is a possibility the fy 2014 eps would improve from 7.56 sen to 10.25 sen. However.... LOL! As we know, Q3 and Q4 earnings usually stronger.... we assume here hor.... our risk.... which means there is a possibility that the EPS should be higher than 10.25 sen.... If I have to guess (hope I am not wrong) I would say maybe 13sen or 14sen.... ok? ok i got you finally! thanks for clarification QUOTE(lambethwalk @ Apr 29 2014, 05:04 PM) Next quarter, throw first you no scare got trend breaker? This post has been edited by spring onion**: Apr 29 2014, 05:08 PM
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 05:29 PM Return to original view \| Post #8
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 29 2014, 05:23 PM) you do understand the risks involved with Homer, right? there is no broker coverage (stock is still unknown, except for that half baked Kenanga report the other day) no news coverage... not attracting funds ..... and then the USD impact... this recent quarter is for the period Dec to Feb. Next quarter is for Mar to May.... USD is said to be a big plus booster .... you can actually have a sneak peep... compare current Mar and Apr's USD rates versus last year.... what you see? it will head downwards(MYR, not USD ) if according to chart. but is chart always right still remains a question so when MYR is down, supposedly export volume increases, this causes large order for export company if buyers pays exporter in debt, this would probably increase the company profit. lets see how this company goes This post has been edited by spring onion: Apr 29 2014, 05:30 PM
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spring onion	Apr 29 2014, 07:47 PM Return to original view \| Post #9
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 29 2014, 07:21 PM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Errr.... my England not good enough. Maybe that chart is not easy to see as a whole. Let's begin again and let me shoot you a long posting..... please note I am only explaining it as it is.... not a sell and not a buy.... If you read the earnings result, in fact the past few months, it is said that the HIGHER USD helped boost its profits. homer's main business is its exports. Yes exports. Most of it, is sold in USD. Higher USD translates to more ringgit, which means more profit. Ok so far? Yesterday result is for Dec 2013 to Feb 2014. I dared to guess the result should be good. This is because the USD multiple impact would be positive. let show you... This is the USD chart, from Dec 2013 to Feb 2014... As you can say low USD was about 3.15, high was about 3.35.... and rough eye estimate is about 3.27 or so.... around there la... Now compare to previous year period, ie Dec 2012 to Feb 2013... yes compare against the previous year same period.... this is last year chart of that period... low is about 2.94, high only 3.10 mostly... my rough eye estimate would say 3.05 or so. Now if say Homer export sales is USD 2 million. That USD 2 million, a year ago, using 3.05 would translate to around 6.1 million ringgit only. Compare to this period, where the USD is around roughly 3.27. That same USD 2 million translates to 6.54 million.. Same export figure but more ringgit back. Ok so far? please if I am wrong so far, say so la. I also learn learn one.... boh tak chik one. (where did I read that from? ) Now this is where we get to GUESS the coming Q3 figures... with the help of the USD current prices. Next Q3 is for the period MARCH 2014 to MAY 2014. First we get last year chart first... This is how the USD traded last year for the period March 2013 to May 2013. rough eye estimate? I would say 3.05. Ok we only have March 2014 and Apr 2014 figures... May 2014 not here yet... anyway this is where we are at.... my rough eye estimate.... maybe so far 3.25... comparing 3.25 and 3.05.... I can safely guess we should see positive USD multiplier impact again for Homer.... which means.... would you guess that the next quarter, Homer should also report much better earnings? ok so far? ok. i did take a while to digest this. high conversion means higher profit, because buyers buy in USD. i think way out from this statement liao. took so you long to reply my 3 line. paiseh paiseh. thanks
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spring onion	Apr 30 2014, 08:50 AM Return to original view \| Post #10
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(gloryhunter91 @ Apr 29 2014, 10:45 PM) hello! i'm really new with stock trading so may i ask if there any books that u recommend me to read? did u guys went for any seminar regarding stock exchange? i really wanna learn it so bad, but i dont really know where to start. ur respond is highly appreciated! how to trade in stocks by jesse livermore QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 30 2014, 07:58 AM) No problem la. The same can be used for a company like AirAsia. We know for a fact that AirAsia borrowing is really big and the most crucial fact is that the borrowings are mostly in USD. So given the comparisons of where the USD are now versus last year, we know for a fact AirAsia will be hit by forex losses. Yes, AirAsia does hedge a portion (around 40% iinm) of its loans (last I recall reading, it hedged at 3.22) but that's enough. Borrowing costs will increase and the difference in the USD will translates to losses. surprising their financial report looks nice This post has been edited by spring onion: Apr 30 2014, 08:51 AM
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spring onion	Apr 30 2014, 09:09 AM Return to original view \| Post #11
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 30 2014, 09:00 AM) huh? nice meh? are you sure? tell me, what's nice? still showing profit. last time i looks at it it seems ok
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spring onion	Apr 30 2014, 09:30 AM Return to original view \| Post #12
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 30 2014, 09:15 AM) The profits came in or was helped by their high leverage strategy. But there's a massive price or massive risk by such strategy. It needs to keep borrowing forever. Debts are increasing forever. Last count? Their debts is now over 10 billion. best is look at it is to look at the upcoming quarter report borrowings 9bil this year compared to 7bil last year... but their property, plant also increase as well
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spring onion	Apr 30 2014, 09:52 AM Return to original view \| Post #13
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 30 2014, 09:44 AM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Feb profit notes showed over 10 billion la..... Property, plant sure to increase due to the purchase of aircraft (which is a diminishing asset).... it's caught in a financial whirlpool which is caused by the poor airline economics of business.... airlines need new aircrafts constantly. it's a must. who wants to fly in an old model aircraft? to buy the new aircraft... it needs to borrow like hell..... if you read the report notes... due to their big fei kei orders recently.... their borrowings can easily go over 50 billion in the future... and then what do you get in return? more competition (new budget airlines)..... and then.... your cost is actually increasing... new lcct means higher costs..... what about other costs? it's a lousy business to be in. ahhhh vechicle as asset is actually a bad asset i aware that iarasia order many airbus so what are they going to do with the old plane? and also means that we won;t be able to get cheap fares in future?
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spring onion	Apr 30 2014, 10:14 AM Return to original view \| Post #14
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 30 2014, 10:04 AM) you are worried about future cheap fares? thing I am very worried is.... one day in the future.... when AirAsia loans go over..... say 30 or 40 billion..... and AirAsia gets into trouble.... will the rakyat faced with a massive, massive .....rescue bill? MAS malaysian pride. airasia? mamak era gone since mahathir
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spring onion	May 1 2014, 02:20 PM Return to original view \| Post #15
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 1 2014, 11:38 AM) » Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... « Nah... here's the list.... good... 1 LPI 2 TAGB 3 ESCERAM 4 ICAP 5 AEONC4 6 CMMT 7 BURSA 8 ACOSTEC 9 PBBANK 10 CEPAT 11 SWSCAP 12 BRIGHT 13 GUOCO 14 AXREIT 15 REDTONE 16 CVIEW 17 TAS 18 CCB 19 CHINTEK 20 AIRPORT 21 BAT 22 TENAGA 23 PANTECH 24 PAVREIT 25 ATRIUM 26 GADANG 27 HOHUP 28 DIGI 29 EUPE 30 AJIYA 31 RVIEW 32 HLIND 33 TAMBUN 34 DNONCE 35 TIMWELL 36 UTDPLT 37 HOMERIZ 38 EUROSP 39 TASEK 40 SPRITZR 41 MELATI 42 PENSONI 43 GTRONIC 44 PWROOT 45 ATLAN 46 TEXCHEM 47 SUNREIT 48 MPI 49 NARRA 50 ECOFIRS 51 CYBERT 52 IGBREIT 53 ANCOM 54 WILLOW 55 AT 56 NYLEX 57 MHC 58 ANCOMLB Lousy 1 ZHULIAN 2 NESTLE 3 WINGTM 4 TRIPLC 5 GWPLAST 6 MARCO 7 MALPAC 8 PENTA 9 POLY 10 SAUDEE 11 KAF 12 BSLCORP 13 UTOPIA 14 PLB 15 AMTEL 16 PAOS 17 SLP 18 FIBON 19 TWRREIT 20 TMCLIFE 21 CEPCO 22 NWP 23 SSTEEL 24 SUIWAH 25 EPMB 26 YFG woah tips from boon kor.
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spring onion	May 1 2014, 02:49 PM Return to original view \| Post #16
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(lambethwalk @ May 1 2014, 02:47 PM) tabik you. so comprehensive overall good quarter for most.... next quarter, MUST throw first before all announce bad results which 'next quarter' are you mentioning, there is many reports will come out in may. are you mentioning about the august 1? This post has been edited by spring onion: May 1 2014, 02:57 PM
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spring onion	May 2 2014, 10:05 AM Return to original view \| Post #17
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	IRIS, macam boleh
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spring onion	May 2 2014, 01:29 PM Return to original view \| Post #18
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(andrekua2 @ May 2 2014, 01:18 PM) AhBoon warned not to GO GO GO liao... thats why tio curse. Same for YTL... Was hoping for showtime but collapse jor. anything good about YTL lately?
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spring onion	May 2 2014, 01:37 PM Return to original view \| Post #19
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(jonchai @ May 2 2014, 01:36 PM) New project launches. Mid Fields 2 sold out in 4 days ... 800+ units haha biar betul bro. its YTLland then, what got to do with YTL? besides YTL own a portion of it? This post has been edited by spring onion: May 2 2014, 01:38 PM
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spring onion	May 2 2014, 01:40 PM Return to original view \| Post #20
Regular Senior Member 1,087 posts Joined: Apr 2013	QUOTE(jonchai @ May 2 2014, 01:39 PM) When the son goes up, mother would follow? YTL has already have so many cash on hands. and where does the profit of YTL goes to? FD
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