Is it any good?

PM or MP?

hmm.... quite yummy for it's current price? healthy financial flow after a bad 1 few years back.

This post has been edited by spring onion: Jul 4 2014, 11:27 PM

Are you turning into a 'value' investor meh?

PMCorp has a terrible history.
It was a simply badly managed company.
Then came the efforts to restructure the company....

Which makes things interesting a bit -- if you are a 'value investor'.

Last year earnings was distorted.
The profits were distorted by accounting profits caused by sales of asset + bad debts adjustments.

So therefor, I am NOT one that would freely use the phrase 'healthy financial flow' to describe PMCorp.

Story telling time. LOL!



That chart probably describes PMCorp the best.

See how the chart fell off the cliff from 2004? PMCorp was around 60 sen then. ( If not mistaken, PMCorp took a 1 billion losses in 2004 in an earlier restructure effort. The company was in such a typical mess. Inter company loans were all over the place etc etc etc)

It probably hit the lows of around 8 sen or so in 2012.

60 sen to a bottom of 8 sen.



Like I have been mentioning, this where knowing fundamentals helps.

And if you look at the chart, you can see only one decent attempt to 'deep fry' the stock.

That's highlighted with the small green arrows.

What's the driving factor that drove the stock from a low of 13 sen to a high of 37 sen?

What's the catalyst?



Is it a fundamental induced rally?
Or is it Mr.Char who dumped the stock into a hot wok and fried the shit out of the stock?



Well for me, my interpretation, is that the answer lies in the disposal of asset announced in the Sep announcement.
That disposal helped boost EPS to 3 sen for PMCorp.
PMCorp became very cheap in the eyes of value investors at the prices then.
Not forgetting the cash pile PMCorp had.
Over 140 million and very little cash.
That's translated to about 18 sen.
Share price of PMC then was around 13-15 sen.
And then some even pointed out the treasury shares PMC had.

Here's the interesting about the treasury shares held.
For example, this was the first of PMC buybacks.
It was done in 2005!!! *whistle*

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...ncements/802778

Shares were bought between 43 and 45 sen!!!
Last share buyback was in 2012, bought back at 9 sen but the amount of shares repurchased was very little only.

Anyway, from a value point of view, there was value in the company.

That was the catalyst that made PMCorp an attractive stock buy.

Penny stock some more.
And of course, with so much cash, naughty wild speculations was spread in the market.
Talks of PMCorp being taken private was like putting extra cooking oil in the hot wok!

Fry baby fry!!! LOL!!!

Then of course... nothing materialized.
Mana ada private offer?

December came and PMCorp had some bad debts left in its book that it needs to take off.
So came a bad debt write off which caused PMCorp announcing some 4.7 million losses in December.

And then came Feb 2014.

I think this should be the clean start for PMCorp.

17 Million sales, 1.68 million profit or an eps of 0.24 sen.
Annualised it, we can estimate an eps of around 0.96 sen nia.
Which is rather small.
And if base on profits, the current price of 22.5 sen is about justifiable.

And if you look at the chart...
This probably explains what PMCorp's trading pattern since Feb.

based on profits, there wasn't much attractions 'left'.
hence the stock, traded in current trading range between 21 sen and 24.5 sen.

but yes...
the company still has plenty of cash...
but the big boss does not want to do anything much with the cash for now....
and since PMCorp still holds accumulated losses in its books, there isn't much chance for investors to see any dividends anytime soon for now.

So if you buy the stock now....
what would be the catalyst to drive the stock higher?

I know, I know... I see... goreng has been in vogue lately.
Fry baby fry!!!!
Will those guys decide to fry this stock on their own? *whistle*

catalyst would be night NTA value vs it's earning on the next few quarter. it's also listed inside PN17. thats why the price is

nowadays have to venture a bit into value investing, now stocks hit all time high, need to find some gem around the sea. you got any method how to find?

Ah onion.

OT.

Finding a catalyst, a driving factor is important when you want to trade a stock.

Remember how you asked me for a simple 555 example back in May, and I simply threw the idea of Benalec?

See how the catalyst worked out?

The strong share buyback drove the stock up from its trading range of 94 sen.
That was the driving factor for Benalec then.

A simple understanding of what's happening + the charts made Benalec a trading option in mid May.
All it took was a little homework.

Strong, aggressive share buybacks (not the small buy backs) is one driving factor.

Insiders/directors buy backs is another.

Ok, I just noted this one a few days back.

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/annchdr/3557.jsp

Can you see the continued back backs?

The latest one, had Teoh Seng Kian buying 1,988,800 shares at 31.5 sen on 30/6/2014.

That's quite a strong buy back, yes?

Here is the chart:



Does this director know something the market doesn't know yet?

So a simple question would be: "Would you want to speculate on this penny stock base on this info?"



* this one just a simple example lor.
you need to look for factors that might make a stock attractive.
Stocks without catalyst is like..... kissing frogs and hoping they turn into something else

Oh, I hope I don't get those idiots remarking this example as a tip from me. So damn annoying one.

Ah Onion..

LOL!

My blunt answer is no.
high NTA value is a known factor leh.
Nothing new.

Eh? PMC a PN17 stock meh?
My trading platform shows no leh.....

LOL!

I believe la....
a lot of stocks already fully valued..................

Finding gem now...... not easy.

my bad. i thought it was in the list . confused between anther stocks

so share buybacks is one of the catalyst. but when catalyst is out from oven ppl already start q-ing to get in...limit up... this situation also very . by looking at benalec case. it stop halfway. when no news then no catalyst, so when no catalyst then its a no-buy?
as you say a lot of stocks already fully valued, so now is the time to stop buying and wait for opportunity? or just riding the wave up?

Ah onion

If you look at Benalec's case, you can see the stock pullback coincided with the slowdown in share buybacks.

Other driving factors, are like better earnings, expectancy of new projects etc etc.....

and yes... stocks getting out of jail is another factor.
Stocks tend to fly once they get out of the PN17 jail...
Having said that... recent Ho Hup example .... did not quite perform as per expectation...
Ho Hup did not fly once it got out of jail....

Right now?
It depends on yourself la....

market is very hot for goreng....
man with the wok is the key theme.....

if you are good at playing goreng stocks...
markets is a heaven sent right now...

if you are not, then perhaps you better wait for your opportunity to arise.

when??

let's say now public bank trading at rm19, and i wanted to buy it. if i wait wait and wait for the next 3 years, it will probably go up to rm30, or rm40

let's say that time crisis happens, and it fell, but it only fell to rm23-rm25, at that time i still need to buy it at that current price, not at rm19 anymore

In my opinion, no need to time the market.Just buy when u feel comfortable with the price

boon also said mah... companies in KLSE is either fairly valued or over valued. if its fairly value have to depends on their performance already

I think mudajaya is worth to collect as on Thursday, huge volume to press down the price due to Kidex Highway issue but RM2.40 level is defended + quickly rebounded. I guess some big player is collecting and maybe the India plant going to complete

Ah onion... sorry my england bad.

Let's start again...

when I said "if you are good at playing goreng stocks...
markets is a heaven sent right now..."

what I meant was

these few weeks...
it's been goreng season for some small cap/penny stocks.
stocks being fried up....

it's plain goreng.

( so for this fact alone, it won't be surprise me at all to see pmcorp being fried up... )

this is what's in fashion in the market, right now, at this very moment.

What did we have before the past couple years?

Dividend play? remember this one?
which along came REITS play... (is reits first or dividends play first? or was it same same?)
remember?
then focus went into fundamental stocks...
then soon we shifted into property stocks....
now is the goreng stock season....

So what I am saying is this...
if you are good at say 'reits' for example...
and now is goreng theme....
and your reits is not as laku now......
so you just got to wait for your opportunity....

Or how about this explanation...

say you are a trader...
your trading strategy is playing from the bottom...
ie... you play the stocks breaking out of their downtrend....
this is your best trading strategy...
your trading is mainly fishing off the bottom...
this is what you are good at..

but the market...
the play is now centered on breakout stocks...
stocks breaking higher....
which means...
you have to play chase the ayam game....
which unfortunately this is something you are not good at...

so what I say by waiting for YOUR opportunities....
is that you wait for the market to favor your trading style.

make sense ah?

Ah wen ah...

I no say no nothing about market timing.....

please no jump into wrong conclusion hor...

actually...
there are some who say market timing is just a fancy term...
they argue...
some wait for the price to buy....
agree?
they wait for the prices to jatuh to a level, as you say, 'feel comfortable with', then they buy.
yes, they wait for the cheap price.

............................ so ..............................................

they wait...
you also wait...
all also wait...

one calls it 'waiting for the right time...
one calls it 'waiting for the price to jatuh...

but I say....
since both also waiting...



waiting... and waiting ..... and lagi more waiting.................................

LOL!

*cough* *cough*




need I say more................. ?

high volume to press down the price.........




Err... I always try to AVOID thinking like this... maybe it's just me.....




*rational*

If I adopt such thinking....
then every time a shares fall...
I keep thinking it is the sharks doing...
they push the shares down so they could collect more.....

when I do like this...
I run into the danger of not accepting reality...
that perhaps there could be a very real reason why the shares fell .....

for mudajaya...
since hitting a high of around 297 last Oct...
the share has been trending down lower and lower ....
and for me...
if I am interest in mudajaya...
i will be asking myself WHY so like that.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Jul 5 2014, 02:44 PM

Thanks Boon gor advise

IMHO, mudajaya maybe worth to invest if the plant in India is able to run to give them recurring income (has been looooong story). If the plant is able to commission and operate in near term, it will serve as good catalyst for this stock. At the moment, just monitor until the catalyst is confirmed?

See, this Mudajaya is a bit complex animal.

Yes, no doubt, I agree, perhaps the potential is there....

However.....

the problem is....

it's like taking forever and ever to realise that potential...
and meanwhile....
in reality...
the stock profits are declining and declining.......
if not mistaken...
we already are seeing some seven consecutive quarters of declining profits...
which is why...
you see the stock declining over time.....

and perhaps a better suggestion for those who still believes in the company...
is to do what you are saying now....
ie just monitor until catalyst is confirmed....

Anybody know the procedure to trade SGX??and also the rate?

Using Local stock broker
call stockbroker to activate Asean Exchange in your online platform.

else use phone to ask remiser to buy the stock for u.


Using SG stock broker
have to go SG to fill up the form and register.
You may find at SG reits topic.



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