Why that’s bad
You’ve probably heard of “buy low, sell high”. It makes complete sense, you buy when prices are low, sell when prices are high, pocket the difference, rinse and repeat and you end up with a mountain of cash. Of course, it’s easier said than done, especially when our emotions are hardwired to do the opposite.
When markets are on the rise, most people feel optimistic and they start buying more but also at higher prices. As optimism turns into excitement then into thrill and finally euphoria, they would have thrown all their cash in for financial instruments as though nothing could go wrong.
It does, and it goes really, really wrong. When markets start crashing, they get anxious but will still deny the fact, brushing it off as a minor dip before continuing upwards. Bad call, prices continue slipping and they start panicking, offloading everything they can before the storm. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy to sell everything off. They’ll be trapped with some holdings in hand which will continue shrinking. That’s when they give up and feel despondent.
… And the cycle continues.
The thing is, they have been buying high and selling low, effectively shrinking their wealth. You’d be surprised to know that many people fall to this trap.
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4810What we don’t like
1. Limited upside potential. At PE ratios of 15.5X and 14.5X based on 2015 and 2016 earnings respectively, valuations are fairly close to the fair PE estimate of 16X. Based on our fair PE estimate of 16X for the Malaysian market, potential upside is about 9% by end 2016,
one of the lowest amongst markets we cover 2. Potential for earnings to be revised lower. Earnings growth expectations have been lowered recently, to -0.4%, 9.4% and 7.2% for 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. Fiscal pressures are forcing the government to reassess subsidies (fuel) as well as taxation measures for various industries; higher input costs and taxes likely to weigh on earnings
3. Potential for rate hikes by Bank Negara Malaysia. Price pressures likely to rise following hikes in the natural gas tariff for non-residential and non-power sectors from 1 May 2014 onwards. Possibility of Bank Negara Malaysia hiking rates in 2H 2014, given the above and a more than likely increase in the rate of inflation given the implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) on 1 April 2015.
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/artic...df_Malaysia.pdf