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> 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V5, Are the signs already there in Malaysia?

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Showtime747
post Apr 4 2014, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 4 2014, 03:51 PM)

Dream? Not at all by established economic theory.

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And what is the established economic theory you are talking about ?
Tigerr
post Apr 4 2014, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(juicyliana @ Apr 4 2014, 01:58 PM)
wah! after V5 also bubble not yet burst.

guess it's all a dream and still a dream for those who are waiting for it to burst.
*
I always think if time can goes back 3-4 years, I would have accumulate few more properties under my belt. Not to flip but just a passion to collect properties all over the place for rental income. So, if properties really crash, my dream ll get alive again...


Showtime747
post Apr 4 2014, 06:06 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 05:59 PM)

Dude.. dude.. I hope to repo him..
*
Always a relief to see bearbear posting in LYN property section forum during office hours. And today bearbear is posting from morning till afternoon thumbup.gif

No repo is good news to me tongue.gif
SUSjolokia
post Apr 4 2014, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Apr 4 2014, 06:06 PM)
Always a relief to see bearbear posting in LYN property section forum during office hours. And today bearbear is posting from morning till afternoon  thumbup.gif

No repo is good news to me  tongue.gif
*
Bear2 is expect in repo, he can repo U while answering your posting. thumbup.gif

Don't play2 with him. sweat.gif

For Ur reading "Pleasure" brows.gif

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/articl...-bubble-trouble

Li Ka-shing, the richest man in Asia and one of the shrewdest property investors in the world, has been selling down real estate assets in China -- including Oriental Financial Centre, which is at the heart of Shanghai’s glitzy financial district. In 2013, he offloaded 20 billion yuan's worth of property in China.

Li, who is known as the “superman” in Hong Kong, is shifting his investment focus from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe, and especially Britain. Some investors and property developers in China see Li’s move as a sign of his weakened confidence in the world’s second largest economy.

Wang Shi, the chairman of China’s largest property developer, Vanke, said: "The shrewd Mr Li is selling his assets in Beijing and Shanghai, and this is a sign that we must be careful".

Wang’s comment is part of a growing concern among investors about the health of the real estate sector in China, which is one of the most important growth engines and revenue sources for the government.

Nomura’s chief China economist Zhang Zhiwei believes a potential downturn in the real estate sector poses the greatest risk to the Chinese economy in 2014 and 2015. He argues that real estate sector risk is more grave than either shadow banking or the local government debt problem.

The real estate sector makes up 16 per cent of GDP, 33 per cent of fixed asset investment, 20 per cent of outstanding loans, 26 per cent of new loans and 39 per cent of government revenues in 2013. "If it slows sharply, we see obvious replacement to support growth," says Zhang in his research report.

But people have been predicting the collapse of the Chinese property sector for years. Andy Xie, a noted former Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist, has been saying that for as long as people can remember, and it has become somewhat of a running joke among economists and investors.

At a time when people are getting increasingly jittery over other looming signs of crisis in the country’s shadow banking sector and ever-expanding local government debt, the question must be asked: Is 2014 going to be different?

This year has already started off on a bad note. House prices in 70 large and medium cities have only increased 0.27 per cent in February. That’s an incredibly slow pace compared to the same period last year. Even more worrying is the fact that developers in second, third and fourth tier cities have started reducing prices to sell apartments.

This is a far cry from previous years, when Beijing had to step in to impose draconian policies to restrict people from buying property in a bid to put a lid on skyrocketing house prices. There are ominous signs that bubbles are quickly developing in China’s third- and fourth-tier cities.

Zhang from Nomura argues that foreign and Chinese investors are often misled by soaring prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. In fact, they only account for 5 per cent of housing under construction.

Twenty-four second-tier cities -- mostly provincial capitals -- account for 28 per cent of housing under construction. On the other hand, the mostly overlooked third- and fourth-tier cities account or 67 per cent of housing under construction, 69 per cent of sales, and 57 per cent of housing investment.

Zhang argues that the fast-emerging risk comes from the overlooked third- and fourth-tier cities. The rapid expansion in the sector has contributed to a large over-supply of housing stocks in many smaller cities dotted around the country.

Between 2000 and 2013, China’s residential property supply increased 423 per cent. On a per head basis, an average Chinese person enjoyed about 23.4 square metres back in 2009, a figure comparable to Russia, but far below other developed countries.

However, as a result of rapid expansion, the average residential floor space increased 31 per cent to 30.6 square metres in 2013, a level that is comparable to developed countries like Japan and Britain.

Let's use Guiyang as an example. Guiyang is a small mountainous city in southern China with a population of four million people. The five largest real estate projects in the city are building 74.2 million square metres of new apartments, enough to house two million people.

The head of forecasting at the state information centre, Zhu Baoliang, says the situation in Guiyang was “madness”.

“The planned new city is several times larger than the old town,” he told the Southern Weekend newspaper.

Some of China’s largest and well-financed property developers are shifting their focus away from third- and fourth-tier cities and are moving back to major metropolises like Beijing and Shanghai, despite soaring land prices.

How bad are the problems in these smaller cities that account for a majority of new housing construction in China? Can we expect a major correction in the sector that could lead to a sharp downturn in the Chinese economy?

China Spectator will look at these problems in a series of articles over the following weeks.

AppreciativeMan
post Apr 4 2014, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 05:59 PM)
Save your breath.. dude cant differentiate btw tenanted property vs non tenanted units.. with price..

I have also notice that dude is also cant differentiate the working of RPGT vs stamp duty adjudication.. the former is clearly based on profit only no other inteference body to calculate for you..

Accordong to my friend

exp.. prop cost 400k developer flipped 700k.. profit is total 300k.. RPGT cuts on 300k .. of couse still can discount .. on other costs

Stamp duty is the one calculated adjudicated..

say  bought from developer 400k..
selling 300k ( selling in need of money)
stamp duty is still based on prevaling market rate by LHDN.. if they feels is 500k.. they will ask you to pay stamp duty based on 500k.. NOT 400K OR PITY YOU 300K..

if a smart ass ask bought developer 400k
smart ass flippers sold 800k.. howevrr LHDN similar market rate is 500k..
screw you.. they will not rely on 500k even ttansacted b4.. they will still adjudicate stamp duty at 800k.. same unit..

Dude.. dude.. I hope to repo him..
*
So smart ass......
If a prop bought at 400k...
Sold at 300k (for whatsoever reason)....
Market valuation: 700k....
Stamp duty without doubt will base on 700k....
So u mean LHDN will let u go off without RPGT? As its transacting at a loss..... sweat.gif sweat.gif
And btw... u kno who pay stamp duty kar?... tongue.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Apr 4 2014, 06:54 PM
ManutdGiggs
post Apr 4 2014, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Apr 4 2014, 04:52 PM)
FLIPPER!!!  vmad.gif  vmad.gif  vmad.gif
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It's not too late to know. We in kindy alwiz bit slow la. But one thg gd tat v r not jiao lang. laugh.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Apr 4 2014, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(zenjet @ Apr 4 2014, 05:13 PM)
No worries lar ~ wait die ~ sure tat day will come ~
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Death is guaranteed. Not even taxes r guaranteed. icon_rolleyes.gif
ManutdGiggs
post Apr 4 2014, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 05:59 PM)
Save your breath.. dude cant differentiate btw tenanted property vs non tenanted units.. with price..

I have also notice that dude is also cant differentiate the working of RPGT vs stamp duty adjudication.. the former is clearly based on profit only no other inteference body to calculate for you..

Accordong to my friend

exp.. prop cost 400k developer flipped 700k.. profit is total 300k.. RPGT cuts on 300k .. of couse still can discount .. on other costs

Stamp duty is the one calculated adjudicated..

say  bought from developer 400k..
selling 300k ( selling in need of money)
stamp duty is still based on prevaling market rate by LHDN.. if they feels is 500k.. they will ask you to pay stamp duty based on 500k.. NOT 400K OR PITY YOU 300K..

if a smart ass ask bought developer 400k
smart ass flippers sold 800k.. howevrr LHDN similar market rate is 500k..
screw you.. they will not rely on 500k even ttansacted b4.. they will still adjudicate stamp duty at 800k.. same unit..

Dude.. dude.. I hope to repo him..
*
Bro bear glad tat u gathered some extra info. Edu not wasted. thumbup.gif
gspirit01
post Apr 4 2014, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(CaptainCool @ Apr 4 2014, 03:51 PM)
seems interesting topic.... am i too late to join in?lol, but v5 ady...... but really still havent burst. probably will burst when reach v99
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If u see the date for v1, v1 to v5 did not take very long time!

If it is such a hot topic, it does tell something, doesn't it ? whistling.gif whistling.gif
bearbearwong
post Apr 4 2014, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Apr 4 2014, 06:43 PM)
So smart ass......
If a prop bought at 400k...
Sold at 300k (for whatsoever reason)....
Market valuation: 700k....
Stamp duty without doubt will base on 700k....
So u mean LHDN will let u go off without RPGT? As its transacting at a loss.....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
And btw... u kno who pay stamp duty kar?...  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
*
can you please check your last post somewhere in RPGT? u really tink i dumb till RPGT AND stamp duty who pays?

hello, it was you who disseminated information to the potential sellers about

" LDHN has a different valuation" , i m replying you on whether such valuation exist in RPGT.. that is a stamp duty model smart dude.."

are you really an investors to begin with?
AppreciativeMan
post Apr 4 2014, 08:48 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 08:36 PM)
can you please check your last post somewhere in RPGT? u really tink i dumb till RPGT AND stamp duty who pays?

hello, it was you who disseminated information to the potential sellers about

" LDHN has a different valuation" , i m replying you on whether such valuation exist in RPGT.. that is a stamp duty model smart dude.."

are you really an investors to begin with?
*
Well.... whether u tat dumb or not im not too sure..... but one thing for sure u arent tat smart.... tongue.gif tongue.gif
Why not u answer my earlier question? rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif
QUOTE
If a prop bought at 400k...
Sold at 300k (for whatsoever reason)....
Market valuation: 700k....
Stamp duty without doubt will base on 700k....
So u mean LHDN will let u go off without RPGT? As its transacting at a loss....

Answering this will give u the answer of this statement.... "LDHN has a different valuation"...... No? blink.gif blink.gif
bearbearwong
post Apr 4 2014, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Apr 4 2014, 08:48 PM)
Well.... whether u tat dumb or not im not too sure..... but one thing for sure u arent tat smart....  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
Why not u answer my earlier question?  rolleyes.gif  rolleyes.gif

Answering this will give u the answer of this statement.... "LDHN has a different valuation"...... No?  blink.gif  blink.gif
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You wanna pay both smart ppl? You only pay RPGT.. in your example.. you making a loss.. there is no RPGT...

stamp duty is based on 700k.. hello I dun understand .. you only sell properties and dun buy properties ah smart ass?

LHDN has different valuation for stamp duty.. RPGT only 1 formula.. you mention there are different valuation remember?

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Apr 4 2014, 09:06 PM
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 4 2014, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 09:04 PM)
You wanna pay both smart ppl? You only pay RPGT..  in your example.. you making a loss.. there is no RPGT...

stamp duty is based on 700k.. hello I dun understand .. you only sell properties and dun buy properties ah smart ass?

LHDN has different valuation for stamp duty.. RPGT only 1 formula.. you mention there are different valuation remember?
*
the more you guy talk the more i rclxub.gif .... can recap what is the argument?
bearbearwong
post Apr 4 2014, 09:14 PM

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QUOTE(bcpbeancounter @ Apr 4 2014, 09:08 PM)
the more you guy talk the more i  rclxub.gif .... can recap what is the argument?
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U check RPGt threads.. u wil know..

dude is telling RPGT.. LDHN has different valuation.. in fact it does not.. he using stamp duty model in RPGT..

I further eloborate on stamp duty calculation.. he tink he can bypass RPGT and help purchaser save stamp duty by marking down S&P price..
AppreciativeMan
post Apr 4 2014, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Apr 4 2014, 09:04 PM)
You wanna pay both smart ppl? You only pay RPGT..  in your example.. you making a loss.. there is no RPGT...

stamp duty is based on 700k.. hello I dun understand .. you only sell properties and dun buy properties ah smart ass?

LHDN has different valuation for stamp duty.. RPGT only 1 formula.. you mention there are different valuation remember?
*
So smart ass..... U are saying LHDN "WILL HAV TO" accept your selling price at 300k even though knowing the market valuation price is at 700k? notworthy.gif notworthy.gif notworthy.gif
bearbearwong
post Apr 4 2014, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Apr 4 2014, 09:16 PM)
So smart ass..... U are saying LHDN "WILL HAV TO" accept your selling price at 300k even though knowing the market valuation price is at 700k?  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif  notworthy.gif
*
What are you saying? You may want to refer to RPGT threads.. ur work is framed there.. perhaps drop a reply smart dude..


icemanfx
post Apr 5 2014, 01:00 AM

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QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Apr 5 2014, 12:46 AM)
What a comment rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif

Anyway, car loan interest is slowly creeping up.  hmm.gif
*
The central bank's latest statistics showed that the impaired loans for the purchase of motor vehicles stood at RM2.33 billion in February 2014, a significant increase of 8.3% from RM2.15 billion in January 2014, as well as an increase of 21% from RM1.93 billion a year ago.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1004607

More works for BBW.

Wonder why npl jumped? Invested in property rather than paying car installment?

SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Apr 5 2014, 03:15 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 5 2014, 01:00 AM)
The central bank's latest statistics showed that the impaired loans for the purchase of motor vehicles stood at RM2.33 billion in February 2014, a significant increase of 8.3% from RM2.15 billion in January 2014, as well as an increase of 21% from RM1.93 billion a year ago.

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/1004607

More works for BBW.

Wonder why npl jumped? Invested in property rather than paying car installment?
*
Well if they cant service their car loan and went bankrupt, it is not because of property price. No 1 reason people are bankrupt in malaysia is hire purchase car loan.

And still car price dont crash.
zuiko407
post Apr 5 2014, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(SilverSpoon @ Apr 5 2014, 12:46 AM)
What a comment rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif

Anyway, car loan interest is slowly creeping up.  hmm.gif
*
Welcome back, any good news for DDD?
Been talking DDD since 2008, US/euro crisis, china/Hong Kong/ausie price drop, QE tapering, Greece bankruptcy, BLR increased, n now car loan interest increase, water cuts etc....
Pls share more
bcpbeancounter
post Apr 5 2014, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Apr 5 2014, 09:52 AM)
Welcome back, any good news for DDD?
Been talking DDD since 2008, US/euro crisis, china/Hong Kong/ausie price drop, QE tapering, Greece bankruptcy, BLR increased, n now car loan interest increase, water cuts etc....
Pls share more
*
I will think that before make any comparison, must think of the risk profile first and the co relation between the 2. Otherwise, it is just comparing apple to orange.

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