US dollar claimed a 6 week high against the Yen, made good on gains from positive US employment data. Meanwhile, though both Sterling and EURUSD made gains this week with the EURUSD hitting a high of 1.3915 (before pairing back), a level not seen since October 2011.

The South African Rand was a big loser this week, falling 1.1% and the Canadian Loonie declined on worse than expected jobs data, indicating that the central bank may need to cut rates to boost economic growth.

New Zealand’s Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the first time in 3 years (25bp to 2.75%) helping its currency to extend gains against the greenback and the Aussie dollar. Interestingly, the Kiwi dollar is at historic levels against the Aussie dollar, having appreciated from 1.37 in 2011 to its present level around 1.0570.

The EURUSD hit a two month high (Thursday 13th) before reversing sharply, with no obvious news indicating why. However, there seems to be a clear correlation with US stock market movements and technical analysts are pointing to significant Fibonacci levels.

EUR/USD traders may want to keep an eye on German and USA yields which may give an indication of direction for the currency pair.

US dollar, by all accounts had a very successful week, rising against the majority of currencies thanks to Fed Chair Yellen’s hawkish hint about possible rate hikes in the early months of 2015. One of the biggest victims was the Loonie (CAD) where USD/CAD hit 1.1270, last seen in 2008. In its defense it has appreciated from 1.58 (2002 levels). GBP/USD also took a hit, now currently trading around 1.6490 and with the EUR/USD has also broken through strong technical channels. The Yen seemed to enjoy the Ukraine crisis and the Kiwi continues to show strength.

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An interesting end to the week! We have seen the markets ignore strong results from the USA in the recent past (note Treasury yield curve chat from last update). However, one comment from Draghi yesterday blew a cold wind through the EURO (was this calculated to have the effect it did?) as he intonated potential ‘easing’ in June.

Many analysts have got EURUSD’s position wrong this year, the majority estimating it to be below 1.30. Just how long this easing pressure will remain in place is open to doubt as the long term trend remains firmly north facing.

The Loonie (CAD) had a bad day and employment figures disappointed, losing 60 pips against the Greenback. Last month the BOC gave a neutral rating on interest rate direction even after reducing growth targets with anticipated lower inflation forecasts for the next few years. Rate cut?

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