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 Forex Version XIII, Foreign Exchange Market Discussion

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WHITE ACE
post Jun 8 2014, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(zDarkForceSz @ Jun 8 2014, 08:42 PM)
I not sure who is he.
But if he is those MLM group, I would advice you to stay off from his trap.

A lot of so called IB (forex broker from NZ/AUS with not much reputation) nowadays, posting branded stuff, liquor, travel, grouping and bla bla bla... Most important they "Collect your money" not you bank in directly to the broker. They are MLM type.
Asking you invest under package (1000usd min / recommend you 2000usd & above), got what fund manager trade for you promise certain % of return.
You only can touch 70% of the remaining, 30% locked.
The head took the 30% your investment and give some % to the IB that recruit you.
This is where their fortune came.
Besides that, every trades you enter & closed they get a certain amount of commission too.
*
Yup, thats what it sounds few years ago and I have no idea that it was a MLM scheme until bro you explained it. Now everything make sense that's why he made so much money. I thought he earned it through commission and override on trades. I hate MLM.


Doggystyle
post Jun 8 2014, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Jun 7 2014, 11:05 PM)
Don't most events in the world have a 50% probability to happen? If you toss a fair coin, you will get either head or tail.. either has a 50% probability to happen. You go out today, it will rain or it will not. Either has a 50% probability to happen.

But yes his trading record is out there, but that does not account for slippage and requotes.. benchmarking this against KGF, We will see who wins after a year or two.
*
Ah, not really, getting hit by a meteor on the way to work is definitely not 50%. Having 2 outcome, whether I get hit or not, is altogether a different subject. What I earlier meant was that traders open their position only when they have a strategic edge above 50%, so its not gambling. And just to cover my ground, if you have a 33% win rate, with a >2x profit ratio thats just as good, its an edge, I wouldnt argue over such pedantic stuff.

On the topic of slippage, I'm assuming were still talking about zulutrade? If yes, then the data is presented upfront, you can even simulate the historic data with slippage and such. And slippage goes both way,up and down, you will break even someday, I wouldnt miss sleep over it.

On the topic of requote, its not like every other broker out there is perfect. And I'm not talking about zulu anymore, I just mean you trading by yourself. So in general, not really an issue.

Not sure who or what is KGF? Also not sure what you meant by who wins? Thought we are only here to take pips from the market biggrin.gif
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 10:45 AM

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Firstly, Binary Options are definitely not 50% - 50% winning rate. A lot of donk went to trade Binary Options when they only study the big picture, never notice the small picture inside. It is absolutely with 8% extra for broker, and the edge are absolutely heavier than any casino table games you have played. If you went a casino for a table games let's say Baccarat, PLAYER always have 48% - to BANKER 52%, that's why there are 5% commission or B6 on Baccarat when you stake on BANKER. So the big picture are both with 50% winning rate, where those edge come from? It came from when drawing a card, that;s where the house calculation in play. When you walked through to Roulette, the edge for house and player are 53.5% to 46.5%. The both most famous games in CASINO max edge are only less than 4% and BINARY OPTIONS are 8% of edge. So you better go to Casino rather than staking on BINARY OPTIONS. Those are only some statistical figures, not including KARATE WORKS by those broker.

Max winning rate on BO = 88% = Every 10 games x USD 10 = Capital USD 100 = Outcome Winning All USD 88.00.
But anyway, you will seldom see any 88% in BO.

So regarding someone saying <33% for trend trading, I am 100% agree on it. Yes, indeed there are a lot kind of chart such as ranging, sideways, consolidation, pullback and bla bla bla… But no one asking you to trade those lousy chart or PA. So this is the part of patience in Forex to wait for a decent setup. Nobody in this world is perfect, what for you wanna profit and chasing perfection on every kind of chart making your read became complicated when actually you can stick on to 1 winning strategy. If you wanna be a perfect guy trading all kind of chart when there is no such existing in this world, means again you can find a SHEN TOI for yourself because you are inhuman anymore. Human make mistakes, and Human never get perfect.




bulkbiz
post Jun 9 2014, 11:43 AM

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QUOTE(tdoptions1689 @ Jun 9 2014, 10:45 AM)
Firstly, Binary Options are definitely not 50% - 50% winning rate. A lot of donk went to trade Binary Options when they only study the big picture, never notice the small picture inside. It is absolutely with 8% extra for broker, and the edge are absolutely heavier than any casino table games you have played. If you went a casino for a table games let's say Baccarat, PLAYER always have 48% - to BANKER 52%, that's why there are 5% commission or B6 on Baccarat when you stake on BANKER. So the big picture are both with 50% winning rate, where those edge come from? It came from when drawing a card, that;s where the house calculation in play. When you walked through to Roulette, the edge for house and player are 53.5% to 46.5%. The both most famous games in CASINO max edge are only less than 4% and BINARY OPTIONS are 8% of edge. So you better go to Casino rather than staking on BINARY OPTIONS. Those are only some statistical figures, not including KARATE WORKS by those broker.

Max winning rate on BO = 88% = Every 10 games x USD 10 = Capital USD 100 = Outcome Winning All USD 88.00.
But anyway, you will seldom see any 88% in BO.

So regarding someone saying <33% for trend trading, I am 100% agree on it. Yes, indeed there are a lot kind of chart such as ranging, sideways, consolidation, pullback and bla bla bla… But no one asking you to trade those lousy chart or PA. So this is the part of patience in Forex to wait for a decent setup. Nobody in this world is perfect, what for you wanna profit and chasing perfection on every kind of chart making your read became complicated when actually you can stick on to 1 winning strategy. If you wanna be a perfect guy trading all kind of chart when there is no such existing in this world, means again you can find a SHEN TOI for yourself because you are inhuman anymore. Human make mistakes, and Human never get perfect.
*
Black jack edge is how much against player bro? hehe. I love bacarrat though.
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 12:37 PM

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QUOTE(bulkbiz @ Jun 9 2014, 11:43 AM)
Black jack edge is how much against player bro? hehe. I love bacarrat though.
*
Blackjack actually doesn't have any of edge. It is more on phycological games rather than a normal luck card games. Have you ever heard someone on Las Vegas with a nick name as Robin Hood? He played on Blackjack to help chosen people through online. Last couple of years, I heard he help a lady who hers son suffering on Leukemia. Invited her to Las Vegas with suites, and all the capital and every spending pay by Robin Hood and she got USD 80,000 to cure hers son.
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Jun 7 2014, 11:05 PM)
Don't most events in the world have a 50% probability to happen? If you toss a fair coin, you will get either head or tail.. either has a 50% probability to happen. You go out today, it will rain or it will not. Either has a 50% probability to happen.

But yes his trading record is out there, but that does not account for slippage and requotes.. benchmarking this against KGF, We will see who wins after a year or two.
*
Yes, everything have a probability of 50%, but figures will change when we have do every homework. If everybody thinks the same way as 50% of probability, probably no more employer and employee difference anymore. This is why there are Research and Development department in a group especially on Europe Countries.

I don't know what is KGF actually. But if you want take slippage and re-quotes in account, this is more important if you are following or trading as Scalping. 1-2 pips of slippage is unavoidable, that's why scalping are not recommended on trading and a lot of inexperience person do so.
Charizard
post Jun 9 2014, 03:20 PM

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Any guide line to judge if the trader is intermediate or expert? So far I been getting 1~3% per month on super small acc. Dont know if it is good or not. Or is like should be 20-30% profit per month then is considered pro? tongue.gif I see some traders trade for living... then they must have super large capital blink.gif

This post has been edited by Charizard: Jun 9 2014, 03:23 PM
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Charizard @ Jun 9 2014, 03:20 PM)
Any guide line to judge if the trader is intermediate or expert? So far I been getting 1~3% per month on super small acc. Dont know if it is good or not. Or is like should be 20-30% profit per month then is considered pro? tongue.gif
*
If you can consistently make 5% monthly, you are already considered as a pro trader and can shift to full time trading. Even Genting Group can't make a consistency growth assets of 60% annually. If someone tell you to make 2-5% daily to considered as pro, you prepare 1 SHEN TOI for him. brows.gif brows.gif brows.gif

This post has been edited by tdoptions1689: Jun 9 2014, 03:29 PM
Charizard
post Jun 9 2014, 03:25 PM

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I see.. thanks thank..
Doggystyle
post Jun 9 2014, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(tdoptions1689 @ Jun 9 2014, 12:37 PM)
Blackjack actually doesn't have any of edge. It is more on phycological games rather than a normal luck card games. Have you ever heard someone on Las Vegas with a nick name as Robin Hood? He played on Blackjack to help chosen people through online. Last couple of years, I heard he help a lady who hers son suffering on Leukemia. Invited her to Las Vegas with suites, and all the capital and every spending pay by Robin Hood and she got USD 80,000 to cure hers son.
*
Hmm, blackjack has player edge if you can card count, assuming a constant set of variable like you know how many stack of Card in the machine, and do they play until all card finish, or can reshuffle anytime when banker feels like. But of course, good chance you might get your ass thrown out and banned also.
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(Doggystyle @ Jun 9 2014, 03:28 PM)
Hmm,  blackjack has player edge if you can card count, assuming a constant set of variable like you know how many stack of Card in the machine, and do they play until all card finish, or can reshuffle anytime when banker feels like. But of course, good chance you might get your ass thrown out and banned also.
*
Yeah, actually BLACKJACK edge were more on player. But when comes to phycological and capital, house will win back the edge. That's why someone will though that hei, we are on advantage because house gave us to see 1 of his card. But actually, the card that flops up plays the game. Especially when player draws a card, just like those terrorist, player will go die first. Of course if you were lucky, you will draw some nice card. But how much luck do you have to play with the house? There are always drawing ratio on every card and you will never get 50% on drawing statistic. Don't think you have 11 pts, it is nice for drawing. When come to 8 decks, you only have 30.5% to hit 21 pts, so it is still less than 50% and you have 45.7% to get less than 17 pts.

This post has been edited by tdoptions1689: Jun 9 2014, 03:41 PM
Doggystyle
post Jun 9 2014, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(tdoptions1689 @ Jun 9 2014, 03:22 PM)
If you can consistently make 5% monthly, you are already considered as a pro trader and can shift to full time trading. Even Genting Group can't make a consistency growth assets of 60% annually. If someone tell you to make 2-5% daily to considered as pro, you prepare 1 SHEN TOI for him.  brows.gif  brows.gif  brows.gif
*
If 2 to 5pc daily... And no outstanding dd by end of day. God of zulu.
Shen toi not epic enuf... Gonna rent a shop and start a religion.

This post has been edited by Doggystyle: Jun 9 2014, 03:57 PM
Doggystyle
post Jun 9 2014, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(tdoptions1689 @ Jun 9 2014, 03:31 PM)
Yeah, actually BLACKJACK edge were more on player. But when comes to phycological and capital, house will win back the edge. That's why someone will though that hei, we are on advantage because house gave us to see 1 of his card. But actually, the card that flops up plays the game. Especially when player draws a card, just like those terrorist, player will go die first. Of course if you were lucky, you will draw some nice card. But how much luck do you have to play with the house? There are always drawing ratio on every card and you will never get 50% on drawing statistic.
*
Of course regular Joe sure bungkus first. Who's badass enough to tahan 100 round... With a delta of 5 round on your side
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(bulkbiz @ Jun 9 2014, 11:43 AM)
Black jack edge is how much against player bro? hehe. I love bacarrat though.
*
If you love Baccarat, I can teach you a way using martingale to hit House Edge. It is not some good strategy though, but at least you try to make it even with House and with higher probability outcomes and need a lot of patience too.

Pretty easy, only play on 2nd Dot and only Banker 2nd Dot.

First= 1 Chip. (Capital 1)( Won 1)
Second = 3 Chip (Loss 1 earlier) (Won 2)
Third= 7 Chip (Loss 3 earlier) (Won 3)
Forth = 15 Chip (Loss 11 earlier) (Won 4)
Fifth =31 Chip (Loss 26 earlier) (Won 5)
Sixth = 63 Chip (Loss 57 earlier) (Won 6)

It is a high advantage if you can stand for 6 games with a total capital of 120 chips. I know couple of them in Genting doing so for quite couple of years and still standing till now. This strategy will loss only if consecutive 7 times banker doesn't have the 2nd dot and it seldom happen. And of course, it only works if you play in VIP room because PUBLIC have banker 6 and if B6 you will masuk longkang lor. And also you must bet lower than limit for 1st chips, let's say your 1st chip was MYR50, you must sit on with MIN of MYR100 table. Because the max of MYR 100 table are MYR 30,000k. It is better to start with MYR 100 single chip and sit on MIN MYR 500 table in VIP ROOM. So you will have to tumpang on the 1st and 2nd game.

This post has been edited by tdoptions1689: Jun 9 2014, 04:12 PM
Doggystyle
post Jun 9 2014, 04:13 PM

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Never tried that, as you say need vip room? Ain't high roller enuf Hahah.
I just use poor man martingale, camp for a 3 streak don't care which side, and counter all the way. Pray it don't hit a 9 streak. Odds on your side but of course on a shit hole day you're gonna get burned. Of course, this only applies if you're a believer that the last result affect the probability of the next one. I know may don't.

But now days, would rather throw money at zulu.
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(Doggystyle @ Jun 9 2014, 04:13 PM)
Never tried that, as you say need vip room? Ain't high roller enuf Hahah.
I just use poor man martingale, camp for a 3 streak don't care which side,  and counter all the way. Pray it don't hit a 9 streak. Odds on your side but of course on a shit hole day you're gonna get burned. Of course, this only applies if you're a believer that the last result affect the probability of the next one. I know may don't.

But now days, would rather throw money at zulu.
*
You can't have on even ratio when you have a result of B6 there. Just remember it, next time when you go Genting for fun, you just look on every table about 6 consecutive without BANKER 2nd dot and I believe you are really hard to find one. No need to be high roller in Genting, always bet MYR 500 single hand for a month, then they will offer you. LoL.
SUSlowya
post Jun 9 2014, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(tdoptions1689 @ Jun 9 2014, 03:22 PM)
If you can consistently make 5% monthly, you are already considered as a pro trader and can shift to full time trading. Even Genting Group can't make a consistency growth assets of 60% annually. If someone tell you to make 2-5% daily to considered as pro, you prepare 1 SHEN TOI for him.  brows.gif  brows.gif  brows.gif
*
everyday market present so many signals,

cant even make 2% daily trade forex for what?

get a job better.
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jun 9 2014, 04:28 PM)
everyday market present so many signals,

cant even make 2% daily trade forex for what?

get a job better.
*
Good Luck. Continue with your day dreaming. I don't provide dream to anyone, only reality.
wodenus
post Jun 9 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(tdoptions1689 @ Jun 9 2014, 01:59 PM)
Yes, everything have a probability of 50%, but figures will change when we have do every homework. If everybody thinks the same way as 50% of probability, probably no more employer and employee difference anymore. This is why there are Research and Development department in a group especially on Europe Countries.

I don't know what is KGF actually. But if you want take slippage and re-quotes in account, this is more important if you  are following or trading as Scalping. 1-2 pips of slippage is unavoidable, that's why scalping are not recommended on trading and a lot of inexperience person do so.
*
Hm.. cool advice.. but PAMM does not take into account slippage right? also why is it that different brokers have different values for the same cross? it's just odd, if you have the same cross and the same spread, why are the values all different? in KLSE.. end of day all the brokers have the exact same prices.

KGF (Kenanga Growth Fund) is a mutual fund I'm tracking. Also comparing it against my own random picks (in which I just simply select those companies that I recognize and use lol) -- so far mine and yours are about even, but mutual funds are slow smile.gif


This post has been edited by wodenus: Jun 9 2014, 04:40 PM
tdoptions1689
post Jun 9 2014, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Jun 9 2014, 04:39 PM)
Hm.. cool advice.. but PAMM does not take into account slippage right? also why is it that different brokers have different values for the same cross? it's just odd, if you have the same cross and the same spread, why are the values all different? in KLSE.. end of day all the brokers have the exact same prices.

KGF (Kenanga Growth Fund) is a mutual fund I'm tracking. Also comparing it against my own random picks (in which I just simply select those companies that I recognize and use lol) -- so far mine and yours are about even, but mutual funds are slow smile.gif
*
Yes, there are no slippage in PAMM account because just exact the price the trader close. As I mentioned earlier on my previous post, no broker are absolutely clean. If they are clean, they no need to hide who is their LP (Liquidity Provider. They can directly mentioned such as Saxo, JP Morgan, or Citibank or etc if they are really clean enough. So who will they aim for on those slippage? Those trader who doesn't understand in depth on MM and always gotten near to margined call. If someone of you here on Binary Options, you can see it will be higher percentage winning on UK open and US open. Why? Because the volatility is there so they can Karate their price easily by creating spikes. Human nature is greed, but because of greed on those percentage gotten karate.

This post has been edited by tdoptions1689: Jun 9 2014, 04:51 PM

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