Still very mild only... watch out for commodity prices of phosphate, potash and sulphur...

minetec up today so.... minetec?

No producers... but many users.. like plantation & chemical acid/soap/detergent factories    negative for those...

Oh.. oil refineries might benefit cause they produce sulfur... 

NTPM more resilient IMHO

Hellooo...

Drag me into the water again?

What I say not important....

You got time... let's do some work.

Numbers for you. ( not hard to get these info one )

Compare profits.

Company A
2010 - 59 million
2011 - 52 million
2012 - 44 mllion
2013 - 49 million
trailing - 54.5 million

Company B
2011 - 10.8 million
2012 - 14.7 million
2013 - 15.1 million
trailing - 18.8 million
trailing = last 4 quarters profit.

Which one you prefer?

Ok.. time for me to go sleep.



Company B was listed in 2010.
I don't and never take these 'first year' earnings seriously.
Do you?

Correct.

Like I said, I don't take first year numbers after IPO numbers seriously.

Half the time, they include one-off accounting numbers/profits.
And I certainly don't look at pre listing numbers.

That's me.

And that's coming from someone who is merely a trader.
So do excuse my wrong perspective here.

the number shows that B is more worthy to buy

but somehow i do feel that A is a better goreng stock, means that you can sell high

Gotta think more long term.. the best gains are when you have the patience to wait...

10 years, minimum 3x EPS not good enough meh? 

In terms of PE is very expensive now at about PE 20-25x. It is also not a share for short term gains.

But growth potential is 15-20% p.a. due to maturing palm oil estates. Currently TSH has about 25k ha of newly matured trees (age 5-12) and another 15k ha of unmatured trees (<5 years). Once trees reach prime maturity between age 12-18 they can produce 20-24 ton per ha. Currently TSH newly matured trees are only doing 16-18 ton per ha as they have not reach peak maturity. FFB production is projected to grow at 15-20% p.a. in the foreseeable future due to continuous plantings.

However TSH has another 70,000 ha (including new aquired 27,000 ha in Sabah) which is not planted yet. At the rate of planting of 4000-5000 ha per annum, the unplanted reserves will last >10 years. At cost of planting per ha up-to maturity of USD 16k per ha, TSH will need to keep plowing in money for capex at rate of >250 million a year. Part of this capex will be adsorbed by the profits (currently about 50%), and the rest by loans and cash reserves. Almost every year TSH is doing PP to raise capital and I am not surprised they will continue to raise required capital at least until 2016-2017 where their profits are sufficient to cover 100% of thier thier capex.

So the price will be muted for a while due to the high valuations and people have no patience waiting for the trees to grow. And do not expect good dividend with such high capex requirement for the next 10 years. 

Ya the dilution is a factor, but more or less they have no choice, they need the money. Unless good CPO price boost their profit temporary then they might need less borrowing.

Even the main shareholder got his share diluted to 18%... you see in announcement he almost everyday try to buy back as much as possible to raise his stake back.

This company easy target for takeover since the main shareholder % is so small..... i think he knows

Biggest thing I remember was how those that were 'stuck' in the counter...
turned into stock forums super promoters...

They yelled 'Robert K's counter la... Robert K won't let his counter die 1 ....'

OMG!

Next time i havent finish collecting cannot post in this forum liao...     

Too many spies.... 

Hahaha

Sometime information get too fast like those insider read the Q report before announcement come out..

Sometimes so slow to react to a good news..unless everyone start buying and turn into snowball 
   

Too much free funds is also a headache

sit in trust account earn miserly 1.8% p.a.

Sit in 1.8% forever? Might as well take out and place in money market fund earn 2.94%

I just cut holdings in AXREIT, now u ask me buy REIT  

Not meant to action... it is just that when you put so much time for stock selection, so much time monitoring it, and time spend buying + brokerage, you want to earn back a fair amount. Earning 2 figures, in the end your broker might makes more than you, but IF you do it frequently enough you might earn more than the person who gets the 4 figures for each sale. Because for some of them, those four figures they need to wait a few years to bear fruit.

Some people like to simply shoot machine guns and get many small targets and each target contributes a bit. Other person like to take their time, study their prey, aim properly with elephant gun, take one shot and take down the elephant.

I am just like the other person.

There is no right or wrong way, each of them has thier risk and reward, just which road you choose to play your cards... 

Rain also envy meh?.. just 2 weeks ago, heavy rain,  the main road flooded.. 30 cm of water. 

Anyway I got used to rain/dry season... where i am, rain 6 months non stop then not a single drop for the next 6 months... the landscape looks like africa.