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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V2, Is Malaysia in a bubble?

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twincharger07
post Jan 15 2014, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(Balrog @ Jan 15 2014, 01:06 PM)
Malaysia household income and mortgage repayment ability.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=778...elevant_count=1
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The affordability pretty much driven by interest rates rather than pricing.. 2006 to 2008 were the era when interest rate was high 6.75+1%.. post subprime era witness the lowest interest rate 5.x-2.2%.. and today 6.6-2.4%..

For the same monthly installment you pay, say RM1500 permonth for 30 years, in 2006 mayb you can only able to buy a house mayb RM250k.. today with RM1500 permonth for 30 years, you can get a RM350k house..

Its all about repayment capability.. so does the 2006-2010 data can reflect the current situation remains a question mark..
twincharger07
post Jan 15 2014, 09:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 15 2014, 08:12 PM)
After QE tapering, interest rate is expected to return to pre-2008 level e.g. 3% higher than current.

How many people will be trapped?
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i think u r missing the point.. BLR may fluctuate, yes.. but pre-subprime era was BLR+1% n now BLR-2.4%..

even if BLR shoot up to 9%, effective rate is 9-2.4%, and if BLR was 9% in 2006, it will be 9+1%.. wat i m saying is there is already a 3% delta given any BLR fluctuation.. that is why I m comparing today BLR 6.6% vs BLR 6.75% in 2006 still pretty comparable, but the difference in effective rate by 3% can change the monthly commitment by hundred and for some thousand permonth..

I m not good or dont wanna predict QE or looking at crystal ball like you guys la.. just questioning, does pre-subprime affordability still comparable than now given rates difference that is regardless of BLR..

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