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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Showtime747
post Feb 3 2014, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(boyslikeboys @ Feb 3 2014, 01:27 PM)
Those were the days where u can still have healthy surplus of cash flow from rental. Now???? Consider lucky if u can get anything above 5%..
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+1

5% ? Those new condo and apartment can never get 5% rental yield. Price just gone insane. Shops are even worse. The current price is just insanely high to make rental play not feasible. Maybe those apartment >5 years old still can get 5% if you lucky to find owner who desperate to sell. That's why property price has to come down. Only 1-2% return above FD rate is just not worth it for the hassle and risk. I rather put in 1 year FD 4% and goyang kaki. Some people say property will appreciate and FD value will depreciate. But in short term, it looks like property will depreciating more than appreciating
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post Feb 3 2014, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 04:31 PM)
So if i got my apratment at around 400k n rent out at 2k++ is not that bad then.
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Not bad ? It's fxxking good. If want to buy amaya now, what is net rental yield ?
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post Feb 3 2014, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 05:10 PM)
Too late i think. Now 600k for the 920 sq ft And 500k for the 719 sq ft. And that is considered as the best price u can get if u are the buyer. Mine was offered by an interested buyer at 660k even though i did not advertise it for sale but just for rent. It seems that the buyer was interested wit my unit view. Anyway there are still subsale buyers and from my observation, these people who bought subsale are really well off thus have high holding power. All are anticipating with d coming of sunway velocity and the MRT. Btw sunway velocity is 1m++ for the 920 sq ft and 1st phase all sold out and i heard the second phase is almost finished. I believe the sgprean who was interested with Amaya might have go for sunway velocity instead becausw of foreigner hav to buy property more than 1m.
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I think the price is affected by the zero entry cost. When people don't need to come out with 15% deposit, they thought it is cheap. Because initial investment is very low.

Now BNM no more allow zero entry, people will compare returns against other investment. Property is not that attractive anymore. Of course it will take time for people to realize it when there is huge negative cashflow every month

BTW how much rental can a 920sq ft unit command ? How much is the management fee ?
Showtime747
post Feb 3 2014, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 06:03 PM)
Right now 2.7k fully furnish with rm230 maintenance fee if u can find d tenant.
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Is this the apartment ? If so, you are quite optimistic tongue.gif

http://www.iproperty.com.my/property/searc...=&au=&sby=&ns=1
Showtime747
post Feb 3 2014, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 06:40 PM)
Those are not fully furnish. 2.7k is the highes been rented out unless there were more and i didnt know. Anyway try and sort ur search based on highest asking rental to lowest rental. U know dat iproperty website can do that.
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Let's take unfurnished/partly furnish apartment (since we don't need to take in the cost of furnishing into calculation) of RM1760 pm (average rental of first page of iproperty ad. Since other landlord willing to rent at average lower price, you can't rent out higher).

The yearly rental is RM1760 x 12 = RM18360. At an expected return of 5%, the value of the condo is just RM367200 (based on rental yield). This is even before taking taxation into account

If it is selling at RM600k, the expected return is only 3.06%. Lower then FD.

As an investor, I will wait for the price to come down only then consider investing. But that is only me. Other investors have other idea
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post Feb 3 2014, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 06:51 PM)
Seriously depends, from my observation, will be hard for you to rent out if it is not furnished. And look at the sq ft too. If u look at it, 719 sq ft was part of the rental that u ade averaging out. Doesnt seem fair
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No, I took only those 900+ square feet ones and average out. If you use fully furnished ones, then you have to spend maybe RM20-40k ? I use unfurnished ones just as an easy comparison with other apartment and condo. Eg. with Mont Kiara condo, you don't expect to spend just RM20k to get tenants

Anyway, that is just me. Just looking at the investors' point of view. All about numbers, dollar and cents. In fact, others are not doing any better (maybe some can do slightly better than amaya). So, it is not just amaya but the whole of KV. From the rental point of view, most apartments and condo are overvalued
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post Feb 3 2014, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 3 2014, 07:04 PM)
If rent is enough to cover loan repayment,  most if not all tenants would have bought.
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That's exactly what the tenants did for the past few years with DIBS+zero entry. They bought units and renting while waiting for VP. And these tenants had created the demand along the way which pushed the property price sky high. In "normal" property investment scenario, tenants cannot afford the 15% upfront, so they have to rent for the time being and save enough until they can afford to buy. That's why all along I was saying DIBS+zero entry has created a new demand and pushed the prices up and up. And this demand died in 2014 with the ban of zero cost. Property price will come down.
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post Feb 3 2014, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 07:09 PM)
Well iporperty advetsied some of the 719 sq ft partial furnish at 1.8k. And some of the rented out units is still there and not taken out.

Anyway fair enuff but as someone on the ground and went to amaya almost everyday, 1.8k is partial furnish for the 719 sq ft and 1.8k average for the 920 sq ft partial furnish is a misleading analysis. But i dont deny that some were rented out that very low rate but not the vast majority. Those are the people with no holding power and rented out very early. Eg i only rented out mine on february when the furnishing and reno was finished done at end of last year. Some renovated early and got rented out around october last year.
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Well, I am not arguing with the numbers in iproperty. You may be right. But I just use the figures on a common platform tongue.gif
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post Feb 3 2014, 08:56 PM

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QUOTE(celinek @ Feb 3 2014, 08:14 PM)
how you get 3.06%?
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Rental yield = yearly rental / property cost = 18360 / 600000 = 3.06%
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post Feb 3 2014, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 09:39 PM)
The yield is taken from leverage assets. So a 3% yield is quite good and after take into account the capital appreciation, the return will be higher. Of course i am going to try and increase the yield by increasing the rental as well.
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No, rental yield calculation is not using leverage in the calculation. If you want to use leverage, maybe use COCR which look at cashflow (initial outlay, legal cost, monthly net cashflow after deducting repairs, installment etc), which is different from person to person (ie how many % of loan taken, old house needs more repairs). If you use 90% LTV, most probably you will have negative cashflow

Capital appreciation is an unknown. Each person has his own estimation. That is probably why some pay sky high price, while others (like me) don't feel it is worth it with the current environment. I only look at numbers I can grasp. If you factor in some unknown, then it becomes judgemental
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post Feb 3 2014, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 3 2014, 09:50 PM)
Of course i am using 400k as the value of the property instead of 600k. I mean make sure that the rental covers ur installment. So if 600k u should maybe rent at 2.7k and get a yield of 4.5%
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Yes, you should be using 400k, hence high returns. But when an investor want to buy your unit, you will be selling at RM600k. Which the return is only 3%. It is up to him whether he wants to buy assets at 3% rental yield

The investor can't determine the rental he wants. So the investor should use the market rental to determine how much the property is worth. Not the other way around. If the investor can determine the rental based on the price he pays for the property, then investors don't mind paying RM1m for amaya tongue.gif
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post Feb 3 2014, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 3 2014, 10:05 PM)
I m suprised.. are u the same boat as us hoping for cirrection crash then only go buy? I m impressed...
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Why are you surprised ? I expect the price to go down. Just that I don't expect a 30-50% price crash like you. Just unrealistic. Unless there is a financial crisis that cause wide spread unemployment. Or interest rate hike that reach 10%. Yes, I am waiting for dead chicken tongue.gif
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post Feb 3 2014, 10:38 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 3 2014, 10:24 PM)
That is good welcome to the boat.. atmosphere is here just needed the correction /crash..
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I never missed the boat tongue.gif

Rationally, everyone in the market knew the market is no good with the curbing measures. At best, it will be stagnant. Most likely it will consolidate. I am willing to speculate those UUU camp here are just trying to be positive. But deep down everyone has prepared for the correction. Only minority are still hopeful the party will continue. Whereas you are too pessimistic on the other hand. If you really want to buy property, don't wait for crash. Target 10-20% below current price will be more realistic. Many people has holding power and can service their loan if their jobs are in tact. There is no sub-prime or the like IMHO
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post Feb 4 2014, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Feb 4 2014, 09:57 PM)
Omg!Your accounting fail. U r really 'lek enm cik'

pls google what is asset and  what is bank toxic assets.
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I think you have mistaken an investment company which have to "mark to market" their assets vs banks in malaysia which is giving out loans with property as collateral

If bank have to mark to market, then how about loans without collateral, like personal loans and corporate loans. These loan have to mark to zero ? What about car loans which the car depreciate faster than the repayment of the loan ? How to mark down ? Banks have to do it every month ? tongue.gif
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post Feb 4 2014, 11:31 PM

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QUOTE(value_investor @ Feb 4 2014, 11:16 PM)
Even without collateral it is possible to arrive at fair value. Further reading http://www.sirudorealty.com/assets/PDFs/Mark-to-Market.pdf

In the current and prevailing mortgage market, the mark-to-market only occurs
during
the lender’s due diligence as part of the loan approval process.
The only other occurrence is of course when an existing loan is refinanced.
The risk associated with a lack of mark-to-market as a risk management tool is that
during the life of a loan, the market volatility, due to decline in property values, can
cause the risk for both mortgagor and mortgagee to be substantially different from
such calculated risk at the time of the origination of the loan.
Such risk can be alleviated by using the mark-to-market model on an annual basis
and adjust the exposed risk on the lender’s balance sheet.
R(it) = P(it) – L(it) + D(it)
The risk ®, at time of loan initiation, equals the FMV of the property minus the
loan amount increased with the original down payment.
In this formula, the risk is zero from a theoretical perspective. However, from a
mortgagee balance sheet perspective the loan will have a book value of 95%, which
includes an expected industry average default risk of 5%.
...

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Thanks for confirming that bro tikaram has mistakenly applied the accounting standard for investment company for banks thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Feb 4 2014, 11:33 PM
Showtime747
post Feb 6 2014, 06:56 AM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Feb 6 2014, 04:33 AM)
i am retiring accountant.

U still dont understand my point. As u never face this transaction.

said u r bank a. During property booming your bank if sold off  is worth 20bil.
During property bubble. Do you think u still can sell your bank at 20bil?

I am not trying to relating it to prudent concept.

No problem u dont understand.
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Luckily accountants of banks in malaysia don't think and apply your accounting principal. Otherwise, the borrowers all kena top up frequently.

If you are the accountant of a bank, I think no people will take loan from your bank tongue.gif

From "mark-to-market" to "bank a seliing debts to bank b", I won't surprise if you come up with something else later doh.gif
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post Feb 6 2014, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Feb 6 2014, 11:23 AM)
First, I hv to qualify myself that I am not an accountant, altho I hv to deal with accounting every year.

For normal cases, I think cherroy mod, hikari are absolutely correct. Why mess with the account and entries here and there when it is not necessary.

For extreme case, when bank is going under, chances of those servicing the loans are in doubt, and "white knight" or shark is coming into the scene, tikaram's theory may hold some truths. When massive write downs are required, prop prices may take a bitting.  This is just my thought, no technical basis.
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Just to recap, the initial claim by bro tikaram was "mark-to-market" accounting for bank loans. Meaning bank have to ask for "margin call" (something like that) when property value decrease. However, banks do not apply such "mark-to-market" principal. Eg car loans where car depreciate faster than repayment. Banks even provide debenture free unsecured loans to business and personal. How to "mark-to-market" since there is no security ? Different set of accounting policy for housing loan ? tongue.gif

It was only later the "bank a bank b" arguments surface and the whole argument was diverted. Just like politicians creating issues to divert attention notworthy.gif
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post Feb 6 2014, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Feb 6 2014, 04:04 PM)
I hv never heard of "margin call" for prop loan!
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tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

Like the hardcore DDD camp here claims, although malaysian property market history never experienced 50% property market crash, it doesn't mean it will not happen thumbup.gif
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post Feb 8 2014, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 8 2014, 10:29 AM)
user posted image

Remind me of gold hoarders/investors argument that gold price has been on upward trend for over 7 years and will continue to breach $2,000/oz in 2012, etc, etc, etc. Believe even those who hoard gold before the beginning of bull run in 2008 and invested more along the way are under water at current price.

Given enthusiasm level in the current property frenzy is similar to gold during the last bull run, it won't be a surprise the price drop will follow gold in proportion. Nothing goes up in straight line forever else there won't be less than 8% of adults have net worth over US$100k.
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Good graph to show thumbup.gif

Reminds me of investment is a very personal viewpoint. The optimists view gold investment as a long term investment. If you invest in 2004 your cost is $400. It went up to $1800+ and settled down now to $1200+. Still a 3 fold profit from $400. The pessimist view gold investment from the peak of $1800+ and crashed to $1200+. A 33% loss

Same applies to property. If you buy a property in 2004 for RM200k. It is worth maybe RM600k now. For optimist, even if it crash 30% he still make 100% profit. For the pessimist, if crash of 30% happens, people have to force sell or he (who must be a flipper without holding power) will go bankrupt

It is all about individual investor behaviour. And how you view the property market depends on whether you are a optimist or a pessimist.
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post Feb 8 2014, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 8 2014, 03:00 PM)
Traditionally; those profited in the beginning of bull run will reinvest more, and opportunists/flippers only enter the market after bull run has started for a few years and price has risen a substantial amount. History has show, both group will end up worst off at the end.

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Both group end up worse off ? Your graph shows that those invest in 2004 still make 3 fold profit tongue.gif As I said, it depends on whether one is an optimist or pessimist. For a pessimist, whatever he sees is on the negative. Investments will always lead to losses because there is always a crash waiting ahead (like what you said in bold). While for optimist, investment will always lead to profit because there is always a bull run in the future

Nothing wrong with being an optimist or pessimist though. It is his born characteristics. Difficult to change. An optimist have more chances of being successful/failure. While a pessimist will have a very safe life. Less chance of being a bankrupt

This post has been edited by Showtime747: Feb 8 2014, 03:33 PM

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