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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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gspirit01
post Feb 10 2014, 11:34 PM

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Unlike us in LYN, most of the analyst report needs to sound positive to avoid troubles. When it sound cautious, it is a bad signs. I do believe the accuracy of the numbers as they are the international analyst. But I just dun know their sample pool and segments. Furthermore, they may not be interested in mid or low ends, as the report is for affluent customers or foreigners.

QUOTE(Wiredx @ Feb 10 2014, 11:15 PM)
Hmm it says thats for high end condos in KL. I dunno what was the sample pool.
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KChan
post Feb 10 2014, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 07:12 PM)
Are u loan officer??
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I'm not loan officer but I do know a lot of bankers doing loan and "investors" teaching me this particular tactics. They even boasted to me a lot people is doing it and it's the way to do property investment. Of course this is mere news from their mouth lar. How rampant this happen, I seriously have no idea and I can't be bother with it anyway. If this group of "investors" style is like that, then good luck to them when their units VP in next 1-2 years.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 11:30 PM)
Before bnm clamp down, believe similar scenario was fairly rampant among flippers.
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Well the party ended 31st Dec 2013. Not sure this year still can or not as I never came across any ruling by BNM not to consider tenancy agreement as income statement. I might be wrong.
Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 11:45 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 11:30 PM)
Before bnm clamp down, believe similar scenario was fairly rampant among flippers.
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The calculaton oredy wrong. How can tis guy get 500k ++ loan in second property. Any banker here can confirm?..

Nett income 4976
First property installment 1941
Rental collection 1500

Nett nett income 4535*30% = 1360. ( estimate loan monthly installment can be approved.


How can tis get bank loan with monthly installment 2591??

Anyway, any loan bank officer can confirm ?..

This post has been edited by Rabel: Feb 10 2014, 11:55 PM
TScranx
post Feb 10 2014, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Feb 10 2014, 11:28 PM)
Well when people talk lies about me i will defend myself. Just clarifying that.
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I guess it's due to your user name. We are all adults, should all debate in a mature manner.
why needs to "finish him"? this is not mortal kombat.

Move along now and back to healthy debate.
SUSAmayaBumibuyer
post Feb 10 2014, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(cranx @ Feb 10 2014, 11:48 PM)
I guess it's due to your user name. We are all adults, should all debate in a mature manner.
why needs to "finish him"? this is not mortal kombat.

Move along now and back to healthy debate.
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Hahahha...at least u remember finish him. Yeah dats why i said earlier, should hav tought of another nick.
KChan
post Feb 10 2014, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 11:45 PM)
The calculaton oredy wrong. How can tis guy get 500k ++ loan in second property. Any banker here can confirm?..
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First loan is 90% of purchase price of 450,000 which comes to loan amount of RM 405,000. For that monthly instalment refer to the amortization schedule at http://www.amortization-calc.com/#loan-405...35-4.6-1-2014-2

Second loan is RM 540,594 which the instalment can be seen here --> http://www.amortization-calc.com/#loan-540...35-4.6-1-2014-2


Rabel
post Feb 10 2014, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 10 2014, 11:53 PM)
First loan is 90% of purchase price of 450,000 which comes to loan amount of RM 405,000. For that monthly instalment refer to the amortization schedule at http://www.amortization-calc.com/#loan-405...35-4.6-1-2014-2

Second loan is RM 540,594 which the instalment can be seen here --> http://www.amortization-calc.com/#loan-540...35-4.6-1-2014-2
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Are u loan officer ?.

No lar, I think wrong calculation. Based on data, monthly installment is 57% of nett salary. Tis is impossible.
Bank only will tk 30%
For self employed, only 20%

This post has been edited by Rabel: Feb 11 2014, 12:01 AM
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2014, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 11:45 PM)
The calculaton oredy wrong. How can tis guy get 500k ++ loan in second property. Any banker here can confirm?..
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You are unaware of this trick? Means you don't have many flipper friends or they didn't share their "secret of the trade" with you.



This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 11 2014, 12:04 AM
KChan
post Feb 11 2014, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 10 2014, 11:56 PM)
Are u loan officer ?.
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Nope. But feel free to check with your banker on the instalment amount. Anyway that is based on 70% DSR of nett income. And one caveat I forget to mentioned is that if the 70% DSR is what bank practise. The 70% is based on few sources that I read and some mortgage officer that told me.
Rabel
post Feb 11 2014, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 10 2014, 11:58 PM)
You are unaware of this trick? Means you don't have many flipper friends or they didn't share their "secret of the trade" with you.

If this is not a sub-prime, what is?
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If they really do tis kind of thing. The is their problem oredy. Out of affordability.
Anyway, I am interested to know which bank can approve housing loan based on 57% of nett monthly income.
hmm.gif
sampool
post Feb 11 2014, 12:04 AM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 10 2014, 06:29 PM)
Ok. I know of this case. Let's see the scenarios yeah.

"Investor A" assuming staying with parents so no need spend $$$ on his/her own housing. His/Her salary is gross RM 6,000 which after deduction shall be around (RM 6000-348.35-14.75-660=) RM 4976.90

He/She bought a property say in 2010 for RM 450,000. Mortgage repayment is RM 1941.85 (Base on 90% loan, 35 years tenure, 4.6% interest).

So now, the his/her Debt Service Ratio (DSR) is 1941.85/4976.90*100=39%

Then he/she rents it out at RM 1,500 (4% yield).

That would be negative cashflow of RM 441.85 per month. Ok la. No big deal.

--------------------

Now he/she use the tenancy agreement of RM 1500 as income documents to bank. So basically his/her nett income is now RM 4976.90+1500= 6476.90

Based on RM 6476.90, and assume DSR is at 70%, he/she is eligible to take a loan with monthly instalment of (6476.90 x 70%)-1941.85= RM 2591.98 which the loan amount comes to RM 540,594

So now with a new property, his/her monthly instalment will be RM 4533.83 for 2 properties.

--------------------

Imagine this particular person with nett salary income of RM 4976.90 have a repayment of RM 4533.83 which left RM 443.07 monthly if the rental income suddenly stop coming in. Just think and see if this person can survive any probability of interest rate hike, vacant unit without tenant or market slightly crash?

There are people like this out there.

And I have not even talk about how genuine is their tenancy agreement (there are chances some of them using fake agreement or inflated rental price). Also imagine those people who leverage on multiple more tenancy agreement to max out their capability. I'm not saying there is a lot of people like this, but I'm very aware that there is a lot people using their tenancy agreement to take higher loan amount.
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the calculation is wrong.. because bank only borrow money if provided the first property is inflated lets said from 200k to 400k in market value base on bank evaluation. because if the flipper unable to pay the loan.. bank can lelong the 2nd house with value [540k - (30% x 540k) ] = 378k and then 1st house... actually the flipper already sell the 2nd house before bank lelong it. in another word, we call it refinancing the 1st inflated property to buy the 2nd property and no base on rental income in 1st propery. rental is just supporting income for the payment capability.
hmm.gif
Rabel
post Feb 11 2014, 12:07 AM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 11 2014, 12:03 AM)
Nope. But feel free to check with your banker on the instalment amount. Anyway  that is based on 70% DSR of nett income. And one caveat I forget to mentioned is that if the 70% DSR is what bank practise. The 70% is based on few sources that I read and some mortgage officer that told me.
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I think no, I dual with bank so many times. Impossible is 70%
Should 30% of nett salary. Anyway, u can check with ur banker.
If really got. Pls pm me the bank officer. I got big biz to him/her. Tq
If on, can gv u commission

This post has been edited by Rabel: Feb 11 2014, 12:08 AM
Rabel
post Feb 11 2014, 12:10 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 11 2014, 12:04 AM)
the calculation is wrong.. because bank only borrow money if provided the first property is inflated lets said from 200k to 400k in market value base on bank evaluation. because if the flipper unable to pay the loan.. bank can lelong the 2nd house with value [540k - (30% x 540k) ] = 378k and then 1st house... actually the flipper already sell the 2nd house before bank lelong it. in another word, we call it refinancing the 1st inflated property to buy the 2nd property and no base on rental income in 1st propery. rental is just supporting income for the payment capability.
  hmm.gif
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Agreed. Watever bank approve the housing. Sure got a base line.
To be frank, bank lagi takut owner bankrupt.
KChan
post Feb 11 2014, 12:12 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 11 2014, 12:07 AM)
I think no, I dual with bank so many times. Impossible is 70%
Should 30% of nett salary. Anyway, u can check with ur banker.
If really got. Pls pm me the bank officer. I got big biz to him/her. Tq
If on, can gv u commission
*
http://loanstreet.com.my/learning-centre/h...ow-based-on-dsr
icemanfx
post Feb 11 2014, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 11 2014, 12:10 AM)
Agreed. Watever bank approve the housing. Sure got a base line.
To be frank, bank lagi takut owner bankrupt.
*
BBW can tell banks file bankruptcy case by the dozens every week, unless one owe the bank over a few hundred millions, why bank takut owner bankrupt?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 11 2014, 12:16 AM
Rabel
post Feb 11 2014, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 11 2014, 12:12 AM)
No point c tis one. Check with bank loan officer. If they can do. Let me know.
sampool
post Feb 11 2014, 12:18 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 11 2014, 01:14 AM)
BBW can tell banks file bankruptcy case by the dozens every week, unless one owe the bank over a few hundred millions, why bank takut owner bankrupt?
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now ah.. before bank files bankrupcy.. the person adi jump from top floor to grd floor liao lo. dun play play wo they r so many ppl monitor that person... u never know what backgrod thy are behind o. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by sampool: Feb 11 2014, 12:20 AM
Rabel
post Feb 11 2014, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 11 2014, 12:14 AM)
BBW can tell banks file bankruptcy by the dozens every week, unless one owe the bank over a few hundred millions, why bank takut owner bankrupt?
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U know bottom line bank only wat to get bk the loan amt if u fail to pay installment.?.
If the guy got money but dun wat pay bank n declare bankrupt
KChan
post Feb 11 2014, 12:19 AM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 11 2014, 12:14 AM)
No point c tis one. Check with bank loan officer. If they can do. Let me know.
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Yes I did check. In fact I just refinance one of my property up to the maximum of my 70% DSR just late last year.

I also realised when market is not good, bank is very cautious in lending. Besides that with the 10 years refinance limit, then sure blow the DSR if do the refinance this year. So I decided to refinance to the maximum of my DSR and keeping the cash on standby. And also waiting for dead chicken if there is any to pick. drool.gif
Rabel
post Feb 11 2014, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Feb 11 2014, 12:18 AM)
now ah.. before bank files bankrupcy.. the person adi jump from top floor to grd floor liao lo. dun play play wo they r so many ppl monitor that person... u never know what backgrod is it lo.  hmm.gif
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Right. Bankrupt does not mean no money.

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